限电背景下光伏发电项目投资策略研究

发布时间：2019-05-24 00:17

【摘要】：光伏发电是一个新兴的朝阳产业,在绿色环保、节能减排已经成为当今社会可持续发展的大前提下,利用光伏发电已成为当今世界开发新能源、缓解能源紧缺矛盾与改善生态环境的重要依托。依托丰富的太阳能资源,我国各地大力发展光伏产业,初步形成了较为完整的光伏产业链,建成光伏电站装机规模逐年创新高。然而光伏电源不同于传统电源,它的输出功率随光照强度、温度等环境因素的改变而变化,随着光伏系统在电网中所占比例的不断增大,其自身固有的间歇性、随机波动性在电能质量、系统安全可靠运行、系统调峰及电力系统规划等方面给电网带来不容忽视的影响,阻碍了其在电网上的大规模应用,严重影响了电站收益,近些年“弃光限发”尤为突出,造成了大量的资源浪费。本文将以河北省阳原光伏发电项目为例,根据国家现行财税制度和现行价格,按国家发改委和建设部颁发的《建设项目经济评价方法与参数》(第三版)等要求,并参考《风力发电建设项目管理办法》及《风力发电场并网运行暂行规定》进行费用和效益计算,考察其获利能力、清偿能力等财务状况,以判断其在财务上的可行性,并就限电背景下光伏发电项目投资策略展开讨论。本文通过对河北省阳原光伏发电项目技术经济评价,并对不同限电情况下项目的投资收益率进行分析,主要结论如下:(1)在限电背景下,可以采取对光伏组件布置进行减装的投资策略来有效提高项目收益率。(2)在光伏发电项目整个运行期均限电的情况下,可采取减少光伏组件装机容量的投资策略,当光伏组件减装的比例与当地限电比例相当时,项目将达到最大的收益率。(3)在光伏发电项目运行期头3年均限电的情况下,可采取初期减少光伏项目的组件安装容量,在较少的影响整体发电量的情况下,降低工程投资;待3年后取消限电时,完成组件的全部安装工程。当光伏组件减装的比例与当地限电比例相当时,项目将达到最大的收益率。
[Abstract]:Photovoltaic power generation is a new sunrise industry. Under the premise of green environmental protection, energy saving and emission reduction has become the premise of sustainable development in today's society, the use of photovoltaic power generation has become a new energy development in the world. It is an important support to alleviate the contradiction of energy shortage and improve the ecological environment. Relying on rich solar resources, the photovoltaic industry has been vigorously developed in various parts of China, and a relatively complete photovoltaic industrial chain has been initially formed, and the installed scale of photovoltaic power stations has reached a new high year by year. However, the output power of photovoltaic power supply is different from the traditional power supply, and its output power varies with the change of light intensity, temperature and other environmental factors. With the increasing proportion of photovoltaic system in the power grid, it is inherently intermittent. Random volatility can not be ignored in the aspects of power quality, safe and reliable operation of the system, system peak shaving and power system planning, which hinders its large-scale application in the power grid and seriously affects the income of the power station. In recent years, "abandoning light and limiting hair" is particularly prominent, resulting in a large number of waste of resources. This paper will take Yangyuan photovoltaic power generation project in Hebei Province as an example, according to the current fiscal and tax system and current price of the state, according to the requirements of the Economic Evaluation method and parameters of Construction Project issued by the State Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Construction (the third edition), etc. Referring to the measures for the Management of Wind Power Construction projects and the interim provisions on the Operation of Wind Power farms connected to the Grid, the costs and benefits are calculated, and their financial conditions, such as profitability and liquidity, are investigated in order to judge their financial feasibility. The investment strategy of photovoltaic power generation project under the background of power limitation is discussed. In this paper, based on the technical and economic evaluation of Yangyuan photovoltaic power generation project in Hebei Province, and the investment return rate of the project under different power limit conditions is analyzed, the main conclusions are as follows: (1) under the background of power limit, The investment strategy of reducing the layout of photovoltaic modules can be adopted to effectively improve the rate of return of the project. (2) under the condition that the power of photovoltaic power generation project is limited throughout the operation period, the investment strategy of reducing the installed capacity of photovoltaic modules can be adopted. When the proportion of photovoltaic module load reduction is equal to the local power limit ratio, the project will reach the maximum rate of return. (3) under the condition of power limit in the first three years of operation of photovoltaic power generation project, the installation capacity of photovoltaic project module can be reduced at an initial stage. In the case of less impact on the overall power generation, reduce the investment of the project; When the power limit is lifted after 3 years, all the installation works of the components will be completed. When the photovoltaic module is reduced by the same proportion as the local power limit, the project will achieve the maximum rate of return.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F406.7;F426.61

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