秦皇岛国内旅游客源市场的系统研究

发布时间：2018-05-18 04:06

本文选题：国内旅游客源市场 + ARMA模型　；参考：《燕山大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：旅游业的成功很大程度上取决于客源市场的可靠度。近年来，秦皇岛市旅游业得到了迅速发展，国内主要客源地的旅游需求也十分旺盛，据专家预测“十二五”期间国内旅游将呈现持续增长态势。但是，秦皇岛在发展国内旅游客源市场的过程中仍存在许多问题。因此，对该市国内旅游客源市场进行全面、系统的研究，有利于该市旅游业的可持续发展。首先在对旅游客源市场相关概念及理论阐述的基础上，分析了秦皇岛国内旅游客源市场发展的现状及变化。随后以一种全新的角度，从影响客源市场发展的推拉力要素出发，对客源市场进行了分析，主要包含推力要素的客源特征分析、拉力要素的旅游目的地分析以及推拉力中间要素的旅游客源空间结构特征分析。其次运用ARMA模型对秦皇岛市国内旅游接待人次和国内旅游收入进行预测。根据1991年-2010年的国内旅游接待人次，对1991年-2007年的数据建立ARMA模型，在检验预测精度之后预测了该市2011年-2013年的国内旅游客源市场的接待人次，同理，对秦皇岛的国内旅游收入进行了研究。同时，针对该市旅游业的季节性，根据2005年1月-2010年12月共72个月的国内旅游接待人次，对前66个月的数据建立ARMA模型，在检验预测精度之后预测了该市2011年-2013年各月的国内旅游接待人次。最后提出了秦皇岛市国内客源市场的七大动力发展模式，即“形象驱动—品牌带动—产品引动—产业联动—双轮助动—内外促动—保障牵动”，从而为秦皇岛国内旅游客源市场的发展提供了有针对性的、切实可行的策略，推动秦皇岛市旅游业的快速发展。
[Abstract]:The success of the tourism industry depends to a large extent on the reliability of the tourist market. In recent years, the tourism industry of Qinhuangdao has been developed rapidly, and the tourism demand of the main tourist places in China is also very strong. According to experts' prediction, the domestic tourism will continue to increase during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. However, Qinhuangdao still has many problems in the process of developing domestic tourist market. Therefore, a comprehensive and systematic study of the domestic tourist market is beneficial to the sustainable development of the city's tourism industry. Firstly, based on the related concepts and theories of tourist market, this paper analyzes the present situation and changes of domestic tourist market in Qinhuangdao. Then, from a new angle, starting from the push and pull factors that affect the development of the tourist market, the paper analyzes the tourist market, which mainly includes the tourist characteristics of the thrust factor. The tourism destination analysis of pull factor and the characteristic analysis of tourist spatial structure of middle factor of push-pull force. Secondly, the ARMA model is used to predict the domestic tourist reception and domestic tourism income in Qinhuangdao City. According to the domestic tourist reception from 1991 to 2010, the ARMA model was established for the data from 1991 to 2007. After checking the forecast accuracy, the author predicted the number of visitors in the domestic tourist market of the city from 2011 to 2013. The domestic tourism income of Qinhuangdao is studied. At the same time, according to the seasonality of tourism in the city, according to the 72 months of domestic tourist reception from January 2005 to December 2010, the ARMA model is established for the first 66 months. After checking the forecast accuracy, the number of domestic tourist arrivals in the city from 2011 to 2013 was predicted. Finally, the paper puts forward seven development modes of Qinhuangdao's domestic customer source market, that is, "image-driven, brand driven, product-driven, industry-driven, dual-wheel-actuated-internal and external". Therefore, it provides a targeted and feasible strategy for the development of domestic tourist market in Qinhuangdao, and promotes the rapid development of tourism in Qinhuangdao.
【学位授予单位】：燕山大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F592.7

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