红旗渠景区生命周期预测及调控

发布时间：2018-06-16 16:28

本文选题：旅游地生命周期 + 二阶多项式预测模型　；参考：《湖北农业科学》2013年24期

【摘要】：根据红旗渠景区实际客流量变化情况,运用Butler旅游地生命周期理论的增长率判定法界定红旗渠景区处于发展阶段,再借助SPSS软件构建二阶多项式预测模型对红旗渠景区未来5年内的游客接待量进行预测。在调查分析的基础上提出提升品质、搭建智慧旅游平台、区域联合及建立预警机制等途径延长红旗渠景区发展阶段,以期实现景区的可持续发展。
[Abstract]:According to the change of actual tourist flow in Hongqi Canal scenic area, using the growth rate judgment method of Butler tourism destination life cycle theory to define the Hongqi canal scenic spot is in the development stage. Then the second order polynomial prediction model is constructed by using SPSS software to predict the tourist reception in the next 5 years. On the basis of investigation and analysis, this paper puts forward some ways to extend the development stage of Hongqi Canal scenic spot, such as improving quality, setting up intelligent tourism platform, regional association and establishing early warning mechanism, in order to realize the sustainable development of scenic spot.
【作者单位】：许昌学院旅游文化资源规划与开发研究所;
【基金】：河南省教育厅人文社科项目(2011-QN-088)
【分类号】：F592.7

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