客家风情园旅游投资项目财务评价的系统动力学模型研究
发布时间：2018-08-22 16:50
【摘要】：“旅游促发展”已成为世界上多数国家的共识。旅游业逐渐成为一项最有发展前景、最具活力、高关联性的新兴产业,许多城市将旅游业作为当地的支柱产业或先导产业予以重点扶持,在这样的产业政策背景下,旅游项目开发成为投资热点。财务评价则折射出旅游投资项目的可行度,也影响着项目的发展方向和发展层次。旅游投资项目的财务评价研究,对于把握旅游投资项目的投入产出效应,优化旅游产业结构,促进经济发展有着重要的实践价值和参考意义。 目前,我国旅游项目财务评价工作基本上是依据国家计委颁布的《建设项目经济评价方法与参数》来进行的,对市场预测、旅游项目筹资、项目运作、成本控制、收益管理等系统缺少动态的评价,无法全面、系统、直观地揭示旅游项目的发展状况。 系统动力学是研究社会系统动态行为的计算机仿真方法。针对旅游投资项目各因素之间存在的高阶次、多重反馈、复杂时变的特性,本文利用系统动力学特有的结构性方法,运用到旅游投资项目的财务评价活动中,把系统中各关联因素进行量化,建立了某客家风情园旅游投资项目的因果关系图和动态仿真模型,动态、及时、长期地预测该旅游投资项目的运行趋势,进行财务评价,提出可行性建议,有助于客家风情园旅游投资项目的可持续健康发展,推动区域旅游产业的发展,为旅游投资者提供决策支持依据。
[Abstract]:Tourism for Development has become the consensus of most countries in the world. Tourism has gradually become one of the most promising, dynamic and highly relevant emerging industries. Many cities have given priority support to tourism as a pillar industry or a leading industry in the region. In the context of such industrial policies, Tourism project development has become a hot investment. Financial evaluation reflects the feasibility of tourism investment projects, and also affects the development direction and level of the projects. The study on the financial evaluation of tourism investment projects has important practical value and reference significance for grasping the input-output effect of tourism investment projects, optimizing the structure of tourism industry and promoting economic development. At present, the financial evaluation of tourism projects in China is basically carried out on the basis of the "methods and parameters of economic evaluation of construction projects" promulgated by the State Planning Commission. It forecasts the market, raises funds for tourism projects, runs projects, and controls costs. Revenue management and other systems lack of dynamic evaluation, and can not comprehensively, systematically, intuitively reveal the development of tourism projects. System dynamics is a computer simulation method to study the dynamic behavior of social systems. In view of the high order, multiple feedback and complex time-varying characteristics of various factors in tourism investment projects, this paper applies the structural method of system dynamics to the financial evaluation activities of tourism investment projects. By quantifying the related factors in the system, the causality diagram and dynamic simulation model of a Hakka style garden tourism investment project are established. The dynamic, timely and long-term forecast of the running trend of the tourism investment project and the financial evaluation are carried out. The feasibility suggestion is helpful to the sustainable and healthy development of Hakka style Park tourism investment project, to promote the development of regional tourism industry, and to provide decision support basis for tourism investors.
【学位授予单位】：江西理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：N941.3;F592.7
本文编号：2197728
[Abstract]:Tourism for Development has become the consensus of most countries in the world. Tourism has gradually become one of the most promising, dynamic and highly relevant emerging industries. Many cities have given priority support to tourism as a pillar industry or a leading industry in the region. In the context of such industrial policies, Tourism project development has become a hot investment. Financial evaluation reflects the feasibility of tourism investment projects, and also affects the development direction and level of the projects. The study on the financial evaluation of tourism investment projects has important practical value and reference significance for grasping the input-output effect of tourism investment projects, optimizing the structure of tourism industry and promoting economic development. At present, the financial evaluation of tourism projects in China is basically carried out on the basis of the "methods and parameters of economic evaluation of construction projects" promulgated by the State Planning Commission. It forecasts the market, raises funds for tourism projects, runs projects, and controls costs. Revenue management and other systems lack of dynamic evaluation, and can not comprehensively, systematically, intuitively reveal the development of tourism projects. System dynamics is a computer simulation method to study the dynamic behavior of social systems. In view of the high order, multiple feedback and complex time-varying characteristics of various factors in tourism investment projects, this paper applies the structural method of system dynamics to the financial evaluation activities of tourism investment projects. By quantifying the related factors in the system, the causality diagram and dynamic simulation model of a Hakka style garden tourism investment project are established. The dynamic, timely and long-term forecast of the running trend of the tourism investment project and the financial evaluation are carried out. The feasibility suggestion is helpful to the sustainable and healthy development of Hakka style Park tourism investment project, to promote the development of regional tourism industry, and to provide decision support basis for tourism investors.
【学位授予单位】：江西理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：N941.3;F592.7
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