中国燃煤电厂CCS改造投资建模和补贴政策评价

发布时间：2017-12-28 10:04

本文关键词：中国燃煤电厂CCS改造投资建模和补贴政策评价　出处：《中国人口.资源与环境》2014年07期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：在应对气候变化的背景下,是否对已经投入运营的燃煤电厂进行改造,加装碳捕获与封存技术(CCS),是一个重要的低碳投资决策问题。本文针对已投入运营的燃煤电厂进行CCS改造的投资决策问题,从成本节约的角度出发,综合考虑CCS面临的诸多不确定因素,将序贯投资决策的实物期权方法与Monte-Carlo模拟相结合,建立了基于偏均衡分析的CCS投资评价模型,研究电力企业投资CCS技术改造现有火电可以带来的成本节约收益价值和温室气体减排量,结合案例,论述了燃煤电厂投资CCS改造的期权价值和投资风险。并应用该模型分析了补贴政策对CCS投资行为的影响。模拟计算结果显示:在现有参考碳价格水平下,基准燃煤电厂投资改造CCS的风险很大,CCS改造投资被放弃的比例接近35%,可见现有的技术水平和政策框架不足以促进企业对现有燃煤电厂进行CCS改造投资。对比政府补贴投资和补贴发电两种政策的效果,在总预算补贴额度较小时,政府补贴企业的研发投入效果要优于直接补贴发电的效果。从评价结果看:首先,在CCS技术发展初期,我国政府应该侧重鼓励大型电力企业对CCS技术的消化学习,通过补贴研发投入,降低技术使用成本,为CCS技术未来的大规模采用打下基础。其次,一个较为有效的碳排放交易机制的构建,可以在长期促进国内电厂对CCS进行改造投资。
[Abstract]:In the context of responding to climate change, whether carbon dioxide capture and storage technology (CCS) is an important low-carbon investment decision problem is to transform coal-fired power plants that have been put into operation. Aiming at the problem of investment decision has been put into operation in the coal-fired power plant CCS transformation, starting from the cost saving point of view, considering the CCS faces many uncertain factors, the real option method of sequential investment decision combined with Monte-Carlo simulations, set up a CCS investment evaluation model based on partial equilibrium analysis, the Research of electric power enterprise CCS investment technical transformation of existing power can bring cost savings and return values of greenhouse gas emission reductions, combined with the case, discusses the option value of investment risk and investment transformation of coal-fired power plant CCS. This model is used to analyze the effect of subsidy policy on CCS investment behavior. The simulation results show that: in the existing reference carbon price, benchmark investment in coal-fired power plant transformation of CCS high risk CCS transformation investment abandoned the ratio of nearly 35%, visible of existing technology and policy framework to promote the CCS modification of the existing coal-fired power plant enterprise investment. The effect of the two policies of government subsidy investment and subsidy generation is compared. When the total budget subsidy is small, the effect of R & D investment of government subsidy enterprises is better than that of direct subsidy generation. From the evaluation results, first of all, in the early stage of CCS technology development, our government should focus on encouraging the digestion and learning of CCS technology by large power enterprises, and reduce the cost of technology utilization by subsidizing R & D investment, so as to lay a foundation for the large-scale adoption of CCS technology in the future. Secondly, the construction of a more effective carbon emission trading mechanism can promote the investment of CCS in domestic power plants for a long time.
【作者单位】：中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所能源与环境政策研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金“能源-环境-经济复杂系统中的预测理论方法及应用”(编号:70825001);“面向全球资源的石油资源经济安全管理理论与实证研究”(编号:70033115);“不确定条件下低碳能源技术投资综合评价模型理论与应用研究”(编号:71273253)
【分类号】：F275;F426.61
【正文快照】： 碳捕获与封存技术(carbon capture and storage,CCS)的应用将会直接影响未来温室气体减排量的大小,尤其是在以化石能源作为主要能源的发展中国家[1-3]。CCS对于能源结构以煤为主的我国来说,具有十分特殊的意义,它可以保证继续使用煤炭等化石能源并减少温室气体排放,是十分有潜

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