我国粮食进口增长的风险后果及对策分析

发布时间：2018-04-06 06:27

本文选题：粮食进口增长　切入点：风险　出处：《当代经济管理》2016年11期

【摘要】：2003年以来,我国粮食进口不断增长且态势迅猛,表现出几个新特征:总体已稳居净进口地位;主要粮食品种全面净进口;在国际粮价高企中进口逆势增长;不同品种进口依存度存在差别。随着国内供需缺口继续扩大,未来我国粮食进口仍将保持增势。粮食进口持续增长的现状与趋势,将给我国粮食市场带来相关的风险,具体包括:粮食价格波动加剧风险;产业安全与冲击风险;农民收入波动风险;转基因进口的环境压力风险等。为规避这些已经显现或者极有可能的风险,我国需要关注以下几个方面:完善粮食信息预警系统;进口差异化与适度保护;进口与对外投资相配套;完善期货市场;加大农业定向支持特别是农民收入支持。
[Abstract]:Since 2003, China's grain imports have been increasing rapidly, showing several new features: the overall status of net imports, the total net imports of major grain varieties, the adverse growth of imports in the high international grain prices, and the rapid growth of grain imports since 2003.There are differences in import dependence between different varieties.As the gap between domestic supply and demand continues to expand, China's grain imports will continue to increase in the future.The current situation and trend of continuous increase of grain import will bring related risks to China's grain market, including: increasing risk of food price fluctuation, risk of industrial safety and impact, risk of fluctuation of farmers' income;Environmental pressure risk of genetically modified import.In order to avoid these risks, we need to pay attention to the following aspects: improve the grain information early warning system; import differentiation and appropriate protection; import and foreign investment matching; perfect futures market;We will increase targeted support for agriculture, especially for farmers' income.
【作者单位】：武汉轻工大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学青年项目(14CJY081) 国家粮食公益性行业科研专项(201413002-2) 国家自然科学基金青年项目(71403199)
【分类号】：F326.11

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