基于随机动态递归的中国可再生能源政策量化评价

发布时间：2018-07-16 19:14

【摘要】：本文以风电标杆电价政策为例,构建中国可再生能源政策量化评价的分析框架。借鉴实物期权的基本思想,本文通过随机动态递归构建了风电标杆电价政策量化评价模型,将传统能源市场的不确定性和中国可再生能源总量规划的现实情况结合起来,同时市场在各期根据收益最大化对市场环境做出反应,决定是否投入技术研发以降低未来风电开发成本。应用这个分析框架,本文对中国风电标杆电价政策进行了量化评价。研究发现:(1)目前的标杆电价水平低于全社会政策收益最大化的最优水平,而且考虑风电碳减排正外部性下的最优标杆电价高于忽略外部性的情形。(2)单纯从经济利益上考虑的中国风电产业尚无法仅仅依靠标杆电价政策而形成一个纯市场导向的产业安排。(3)将碳交易市场与风电产业链对接起来的结构是能够通过市场自生的。
[Abstract]:Taking the benchmark price policy of wind power as an example, this paper constructs an analytical framework for quantitative evaluation of renewable energy policy in China. With reference to the basic idea of real option, this paper constructs a quantitative evaluation model of wind power benchmark price policy through random dynamic recursion, which combines the uncertainty of traditional energy market with the reality of total renewable energy planning in China. At the same time, the market responds to the market environment according to the profit maximization in each period, and decides whether to invest the technology research and development to reduce the cost of wind power development in the future. Using this analytical framework, this paper quantitatively evaluates the price policy of wind power benchmark in China. The results show that: (1) the current benchmark price level is lower than the optimal level of maximizing the income of the whole social policy. Considering the positive externality of carbon abatement of wind power, the optimal benchmark price is higher than that of neglecting externality. (2) the wind power industry in China can not only rely on the benchmarking price policy to form a pure market. (3) the structure of carbon trading market and wind power industry chain can be generated through the market.
【作者单位】：闽江学院新华都商学院;厦门大学中国能源政策研究院能源经济与能源政策协同创新中心;厦门大学经济学院中国能源经济研究中心;
【基金】：新华都商学院能源经济与低碳发展研究院低碳项目国家社科基金重大项目(No.12&ZD059) 能源基金会中国可持续能源项目(G-1311-19436) 教育部重大项目(No.10 JBG 013)
【分类号】：F206

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