国际天然橡胶价格波动因素分析

发布时间：2019-01-14 16:06

【摘要】：中国是天然橡胶生产和消费大国,近几年国际天然橡胶价格波动加剧,已经严重影响到天然橡胶正常生产和使用。开展本研究有利于摸清国际天然橡胶价格波动规律,能为科学制定市场应对策略提供有益借鉴。本文简要介绍了近几年国际天然橡胶市场供需格局和价格波动情况,实证分析了供需差量对价格增量的反向影响关系,证实了天然橡胶市场价格与世界经济发展形势具有一致变动趋势;并采用协整分析和向量自回归模型,研究得出石油价格变动是引起天然橡胶市场波动的原因之一。本文还描述了国际联盟及金融市场对国际天然橡胶市场波动的影响。基于以上研究结果,本文认为,可通过加强对市场及影响因素的监测、健全收储机制,完善期货市场、提升价格影响力,立足国内生产、适度发展进口,来平抑价格、化解风险,保证国内产业健康发展。
[Abstract]:China is a large country in the production and consumption of natural rubber. In recent years, the international price fluctuation of natural rubber has increased, which has seriously affected the normal production and use of natural rubber. This study is helpful to understand the fluctuation law of international natural rubber price, and to provide useful reference for the scientific formulation of market coping strategy. This paper briefly introduces the supply and demand pattern and price fluctuation in the international natural rubber market in recent years, and empirically analyzes the reverse influence of the difference between supply and demand on the price increment. It is proved that the market price of natural rubber has the same changing trend with the world economic development situation. By using cointegration analysis and vector autoregressive model, it is found that the fluctuation of oil price is one of the reasons for the fluctuation of natural rubber market. This paper also describes the impact of the League of Nations and financial markets on the volatility of the international natural rubber market. Based on the above research results, this paper holds that the price can be stabilized by strengthening the monitoring of the market and its influencing factors, perfecting the mechanism of collecting and storing stocks, perfecting the futures market, enhancing the influence of price, basing on domestic production, and developing imports moderately. Defuse risks and ensure the healthy development of domestic industries.
【作者单位】：中国农垦经济发展中心;农业部对外经济合作中心;浙江万里学院商学院;
【分类号】：F316.12;F313.7

【参考文献】