农户规模化养殖背景下我国生猪价格波动研究

发布时间：2019-04-01 19:40

【摘要】：猪肉是我国居民日常饮食中的主要肉制品,肉价的高低直接关乎着他们菜篮子支出的多寡。近几年,我国生猪养殖规模逐步扩大,出现了“百度养猪”、“高盛养猪”等热门事件。然而,这过程中,也伴随着我国生猪价格波动幅度的愈来愈大。过度的价格波动会影响到居民的消费习惯以及养殖户特别是农户的收入,同时也不利于生猪养殖产业的健康发展。因此,研究引起生猪价格变动的因素以及生猪价格波动剧烈的原因十分有必要。本文首先指出我国生猪养殖市场的特征：低长期需求弹性与高长期供给弹性；无退出进入壁垒；养殖主体以农户为主,养殖模式以农户规模化养殖为主。进而,分析了我国近几年生猪价格波动的特征：显著的节假日及季节特征、发散型蛛网。接下来,本文从内部传导机制和外部冲击机制两方面,分析了农户规模化养殖背景下我国生猪价格变动的影响因素。之后,对经“季节调整”的数据建立回归模型,发现：养殖户预期及人力成本对生猪价格的影响并不显著,而仔猪价格、玉米价格、活鸡价格、居民消费价格指数、春节与生猪价格呈正相关关系,验证了我国生猪价格的第一个特征。最后,本文对生猪价格波动幅度与农户规模化养殖占比提高之间的关系进行了协整检验和Granger因果关系检验,发现农户规模化养殖占比的提高是生猪价格波动幅度增大的Granger原因之一,从而验证了发散型蛛网特征。农户规模化养殖占比的提高引起生猪价格波动剧烈是由农户资金有限、信息传导不畅、对疫病防疫与处理能力弱以及市场无壁垒等因素引起的,所以,为了稳定我国生猪价格,本文提出以下几点建议：一,尽快推进农地、宅基地、活物抵押；二,工程防疫与兽医防疫相结合；三,建立生猪养殖市场的准入准出制度；四,开发清洁生产技术和能源化利用技术防治污染；五,适时推出生猪期货。
[Abstract]:Pork is the main meat product in the daily diet of Chinese residents, and the price of meat is directly related to the amount of their basket expenditure. In recent years, the scale of pig breeding in China has gradually expanded, such as Baidu Pig raising, Goldman Sachs Pig raising and so on. However, in this process, along with the increasing fluctuation of pig prices in China. Excessive price fluctuation will affect the consumption habits of residents and the income of farmers, especially farmers, at the same time, it will not be conducive to the healthy development of pig breeding industry. Therefore, it is necessary to study the factors that cause the change of pig price and the reason why the price of live pig fluctuates violently. This paper first points out the characteristics of pig breeding market in China: low long-term demand elasticity and high long-term supply elasticity; no exit barriers to entry; farmers as the main breeding body and large-scale farming model as the main breeding model. Furthermore, the characteristics of pig price fluctuation in China in recent years are analyzed: significant holiday and seasonal characteristics, divergent spider webs. Then, this paper analyzes the influencing factors of pig price change in China under the background of large-scale farming from two aspects of internal transmission mechanism and external shock mechanism. After that, the regression model was established for the "seasonally adjusted" data, and it was found that the effects of farmers' expectations and manpower costs on pig prices were not significant, while piglet prices, corn prices, live chicken prices, and consumer price indices were not significantly affected by such factors as piglet price, corn price, live chicken price and consumer price index. Spring Festival has a positive correlation with pig price, which validates the first characteristic of pig price in China. Finally, the relationship between the fluctuation of pig price and the proportion of large-scale farming was tested by co-integration test and Granger causality test. It was found that the increase in the proportion of large-scale farming was one of the reasons for the increase in the fluctuation of pig price, which confirmed the characteristics of divergent spider webs. The sharp fluctuation of pig price caused by the increase of the proportion of large-scale farming is caused by the limited funds of farmers, the poor transmission of information, the weak ability of epidemic prevention and treatment, and the absence of barriers to the market. Therefore, in order to stabilize the price of live pigs in China, This paper puts forward the following suggestions: first, promote farmland, homestead, living mortgage as soon as possible; Second, the combination of engineering epidemic prevention and veterinary epidemic prevention; third, the establishment of the pig breeding market admission quasi-export system; fourth, the development of cleaner production technology and energy utilization technology to prevent pollution; fifth, timely launch of live pig futures.
【学位授予单位】：厦门大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F323.7

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