东盟共同货币的可行性研究

发布时间：2017-12-31 20:14

本文关键词：东盟共同货币的可行性研究　出处：《上海师范大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文主要研究东盟五国(印度尼西亚、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡和泰国)建立共同货币的可行性问题,探索了发展东盟经济与货币的一体化等相关问题。通过研究发现：1)东盟五国在经济领域上(趋同性和对称性)验证了建立共同货币的可行性,通过对某些最优货币区的前提条件为东盟五国建立共同货币的可行性提供理论与分析依据：冲击的对称性、马约一致性标准、货币一体化的指数、经济周期的同步性和区内贸易。虽然最优货币区理论对建立共同货币区是非常重要的,但在货币联盟的实现上,最优货币区理论的一系列条件不能为该国家是否可参入共同货币区给出准确的答案。实现建立共同货币,各经济体不仅需要满足经济条件还需要考虑政治和社会文化等相关状况。如今,东盟仍然没有强制性的区域政治承诺、缺乏了区域主导国和区域机构为东盟实现采用共同货币。除此之外,建议东盟形成东盟货币单位当作区域锚货币,且提出东盟该先采用多重货币联盟模式创立共同货币区在一个次区域作为过渡,然后再采用单一货币模式进行共同货币。2)许多年来,东盟在经济和货币合作上取得了较好的进展,并不断地追求更深化的一体化程度。东盟发展经济一体化的计划将于2015年形成东盟经济共同体,其计划表示东盟仍在走向货币一体化的路径上,所以东盟将来有可能会实现建立共同货币区像欧盟。3)如今东盟还不充分最优货币区条件可采用共同货币。东盟实现建立共同货币区的设想,路经还是很漫长,而且东盟不能一蹴而就采用共同货币。因此,东盟采取共同货币之前还有很多工作需要准备。为了推动东盟进一步实现共同货币的进程,东盟还需要努力加强经济和政治合作的基础；建立有效的区域的超国家机制(如区域理事会、区域中央银行、区域监督和预警机制、推动采用共同货币的行政单位)；发展与强化金融和资本市场；推动自由贸易协定和进一步深化区域经济一体化程度；协调区域政策与法令规章；缩小东盟在经济、政治、社会文化上的差距。一旦时机成熟,东盟就有可能会考虑采用共同货币和取得共同货币的利益。
[Abstract]:This paper mainly studies the feasibility of establishing a common currency among the five ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand), and explores the development of ASEAN economic and monetary integration and other related issues. The study found that the ASEAN five countries in the economic field (convergence and symmetry) to verify the feasibility of the establishment of a common currency. This paper provides theoretical and analytical basis for the feasibility of establishing a common currency for the five ASEAN countries through the premise of some optimal currency areas: symmetry of shock, consistency standard of Mayo and index of monetary integration. Synchronization of economic cycles and intraregional trade. Although the theory of optimal currency area is very important to the establishment of common currency area, it is in the realization of monetary union. A series of conditions in the theory of optimal currency area can not give an accurate answer to whether the country can join the common currency area and realize the establishment of common currency. Economies need not only to meet economic conditions but also to take into account political and sociocultural situations. ASEAN still does not have a mandatory regional political commitment. There is a lack of regional leading countries and regional institutions to adopt a common currency for ASEAN. In addition, it is suggested that ASEAN form the ASEAN monetary unit as the regional anchor currency. And put forward that ASEAN should first adopt the multi-currency union model to create common currency area in a subregion as a transition, and then use the single currency model for common currency. 2) for many years. ASEAN has made good progress in economic and monetary cooperation, and has been pursuing a deeper degree of integration. ASEAN plans to develop economic integration will form the ASEAN Economic Community in 2015. The plan says ASEAN is still on the path to monetary integration. So it is possible for ASEAN to realize the establishment of common currency area such as EU. 3) now ASEAN is not enough to use common currency. ASEAN can realize the idea of establishing common currency area. There is still a long way to go and ASEAN cannot adopt a common currency overnight. So there is still a lot of work to be done before ASEAN can adopt a common currency. ASEAN also needed to work to strengthen the basis for economic and political cooperation; Establishment of effective regional supranational mechanisms (e.g. regional councils, regional central banks, regional surveillance and early warning mechanisms, promotion of common currency administrative units); Developing and strengthening financial and capital markets; Promoting free trade agreements and deepening the degree of regional economic integration; Harmonization of regional policies and regulations; Once the time is ripe, ASEAN may consider adopting a common currency and achieving the benefits of a common currency.
【学位授予单位】：上海师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F133;F823.3

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