江汉平原城镇化与耕地保护协调发展研究

发布时间：2018-01-05 06:36

本文关键词：江汉平原城镇化与耕地保护协调发展研究　出处：《华中师范大学》2015年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：城镇化的实质是一种生产要素流动,是由人口、土地和资金的有序流动产生。城镇的形成以及在空间上的地理分布往往是由人口、土地和资金三大城镇化驱动因素的流动和流转能力所决定的。随着生产力的提高,经济的加速发展,社会的不断进步,三大因素的流动速度不断加快,使得城镇化的发展和演变不断加速变化。统计数据显示：1978-2010年全国城镇人口总量由1.73亿增加到6.66亿,年均增长0.15亿；城镇化水平由17.92%提高到49.70%,年均增长0.99%；城市个数由190个增加到657个,年均增加15个,建制镇的数量增速较快,1978年建制镇数量为2000多个,到2010年增加到1.94万个,年均增加539个。城镇化作为我国社会经济发展的重要推动力的确在一定程度上提高了社会生产力,改善了人民居住环境与生活质量,但是,城镇化发展自身受其体制约束与政策导向等因素的影响,使得我国城乡间差距进一步扩大,人地关系日趋紧张。与此同时,城镇化发展失速所带来的弊端也在日益凸显,城乡二元矛盾加剧,耕地面积减少,城镇质量下降,粮食生产安全受到严重的威胁。在此现势条件下,如何协调城乡关系,确保耕地资源保护与城镇化可持续协调发展成为了当前亟待解决的问题。本文选择江汉平原作为研究对象,江汉平原是湖北省人口密度最大,经济最富活力的区域,也是大武汉城市群发展的重要腹地,其30多年来的城镇化发展与全国的城镇化发展相比有其自身的特征。随着近年来江汉平原区域经济、社会的高速发展,尤其是城镇化发展进程的加快,人口压力与日俱增,江汉平原内部各县市城市边界的扩大,城市化的飞速发展、建成区面积逐步扩大在一定程度上使得耕地面积日益减少。当前快速的城镇化发展状况已明显的改变了江汉平原的土地利用状况,尤其是建设占用耕地资源情况突出,伴随而来的土地污染问题严重、人地矛盾不断尖锐等问题深刻的影响着区域的生态状况,使得耕地保护的难度进一步加大。在此现实背景下,深入探讨江汉平原近30年来城镇化发展进程与耕地资源的耦合关系,利用计算机分析与地理空间分析研究方法定量化的研究城镇化发展对江汉平原耕地资源变化的影响,系统分析其变化的驱动机理。以县域为单位,分别对城镇化与耕地资源的时空特征演变展开研究,构建城镇化与耕地资源的重心模型、城镇化与耕地集约利用度的协整模型、脉冲响应函数模型、城乡人口与建设用地的“脱钩”理论构建协调度模型；采用空间分析方法以及空间统计学等空间特征研究手段,应用计量经济学、数理统计、多元回归、主成分分析、协整理论、Granger因果关系检验等方法对研究区的城镇化与耕地资源时序动态演变特征与驱动力成因机制进行系统研究；借助ArcGIS、SPSS20等软件,对城镇化与耕地资源的时空演变、城镇化与耕地重心的演变路径、城乡地区人口与土地变化的时空耦合关系与机理演变过程进行了系统研究,分析其成因机制、协调关系及类型划分,构建城镇化与耕地资源的协调度模型进一步计算出江汉平原的城镇化与耕地资源的协调度；以县域为单位,将城镇化与耕地资源的空间耦合关系进行分类,按照划分的城镇化发展类型提出差别化的国土政策建议,从而更好的解决现阶段城镇化高速发展与耕地资源过度消耗之间的矛盾；并为新型城镇化发展中土地利用方式优化、土地资源优化配置、耕地资源切实保护提供有效的决策支持。本文共分为八章：第一章为绪论。绪论分为两个部分,第一部分阐明本文的研究背景与研究意义；从国内外有关城镇化的内涵研究,城镇化发展阶段特征与城镇化评价指标体系构建的研究现状,城镇化与耕地资源保护协调度分析的研究进展等方面着手展开研究综述。第二部分阐述了本研究的理论基础。第二章为研究理论基础。本章节对研究的理论基础做了系统阐述。第三章为研究方案。本章节简述研究的目的与方法,并确立本次研究的技术路线；以经济地理学、区域经济学、土地科学、地统计学等相关理论、方法为支撑,采用定量化的实证研究,综合运用地理信息系统(GIS)和遥感(RS)等现代计算手段,充分利用历史资料、统计年鉴、遥感影像等真实数据资源,从时间序列着手开展本项研究。同时,本章节介绍了本次研究的主要内容包括有：江汉平原1980-2010城镇化发展及驱动机制研究；城镇化与耕地资源变化空间协调度分析；1995-2010江汉平原城镇化与耕地资源空间耦合关系分析。最后,对本次研究的研究区范围界定与研究区概况进行了介绍。第四章为耕地资源与城镇化发展现状及时空演变分析。研究分为五个部分：第一部分,首先确定了城镇化的内涵。第二部分,选取江汉平原1980年、1985年、1990年、1995年、2000年、2005年、2010年7个年度的截面数据分析研究区各县市城镇化发展的时空演变特征以及空间差异。第三部分为县域土地城镇化时空演变分析,人均城镇化面积选取1995年、2000年、2005年、2010年这四年的截面数据,按照每五年一个时间节点进行研究。第四部分为江汉平原1980-2010年的耕地数量变化分析,研究耕地的现状与变化趋势。第五部分为江汉平原县域城镇化区域差异分析,利用变异系数法测算江汉平原1980年、1985年、1990年、1995年、2000年、2005年、2010年的各县的城镇化率差异度。最后一部分为小结,总结本章研究内容并对江汉平原建设用地面积增长率与耕地面积增长率的关系做进一步分析。第五章为耕地资源与城镇化协调时空变化研究。对耕地资源的时空变化研究是基于耕地资源与城镇化重心演变路径分析,运用重心模型对江汉平原1995年、2000年、2005年、2010年的总人口、人口城镇化、耕地资源进行重心位移变化分析,同时进行了重心位移路径的比较分析,研究表明：城镇化重心轨迹与人口重心的演变轨迹从方向上看呈基本一致的演变路径。城镇化重心的移动方向整体呈现由西南向东北方向移动的趋势,人口重心的移动方向则整体呈现由西向东,东进南移的变化态势。城镇化重心的移动方向整体呈现由西南向东北方向移动的趋势,而耕地重心的移动方向则整体呈现由东向西,西进南移的变化态势。在总体移动方向上,江汉平原耕地重心的空间演变轨迹与城镇化比呈现出完全相反的趋势。通过对江汉平原耕地资源与城镇化时序协调变化分析的基础上,应用脱钩理论及其相关模型研究江汉平原耕地资源与城镇化空间耦合关系,研究人口城镇化与土地城镇化的空间耦合关系特征及农业劳动力人口与耕地面积的并依据空间耦合特征,然后将两者的耦合关系进行叠加组合,得出1995-2010江汉平原城乡人口与城乡土地空间耦合类型,以县域为单位划分其耦合类型分区。以江汉平原县域为单位,可将城乡人口与城乡土地空间耦合类型划分为12种类型。第六章为城镇化与耕地资源变化驱动力分析及因果关系检验。本章研究内容包括：江汉平原城镇化发展驱动机制分析,主要对城镇化发展进程与特征以及城镇化发展驱动机制进行系统研究；对江汉平原1980-2010年耕地集约利用与城镇化发展进行协整分析与Granger因果检验,研究表明：耕地集约利用指数和城镇化率之间存在单向因果关系,即城镇化率的提高是促进耕地集约利用水平提高的Granger原因,而耕地集约利用指数变化不是城镇化率变化的Granger原因。研究结果表明：城镇化的发展与耕地集约利用存在长期协整,但短期内二者交互胁迫,城镇化发展对耕地集约利用率的传导作用将滞后3期,并且有逐步放大的态势；第七章为江汉平原城镇化与耕地保护协调发展差别化国土政策建议。本章首先归纳总结了近30年来江汉平原城镇化与耕地保护协调发展中存在的问题；以城镇化发展研究的相关理论基础为指导,全面把握我国城镇化进程中耕地资源的现状和发展趋势,以本文第四章、第五章的分析结论为基础,提出了较为深入和系统的江汉平原县域地区差别化国土政策建议,以期化解城镇化发展与耕地资源保护之间的矛盾关系,为城镇化与耕地保护的协调发展提供科学化、合理化、可持续的智力支持、政策参考与决策依据。第八章为研究结论与展望。本章总结了文章的主要研究结论与创新点,并结合本文的不足之处做了该研究领域的研究展望。
[Abstract]:The essence of urbanization is a flow of production factors, by the population, the orderly flow of land and funds. Urban formation and geographical distribution in space is often determined by the population of driving factors of land and capital in three big cities of the flow and circulation ability. With the increase of productivity, accelerate economic development the progress of the society, the flow speed of the three factors is accelerating, making the development and evolution of urbanization accelerated changes. Statistics show: 1978-2010 national urban population increased from 173 million to 666 million, with an average annual growth rate of 15 million; the level of urbanization increased from 17.92% to 49.70%, with an average annual growth rate of 0.99%; the number of city increase from 190 to 657, with an average annual increase of 15, the number of towns of rapid growth, the number of towns in 1978 more than 2000, to 2010 increased to 19 thousand and 400, an average annual increase of 539 urbanization. As an important driving force for China's economic and social development is to a certain extent, improve the social productive forces, improve the people's living environment and quality of life, but the influence factors of the development of urbanization itself by its institutional constraints and policy guidance, making China's urban-rural gap is widening, the increasingly tense relationship between people and land. At the same time, malpractice the development of urbanization brought about by the stall in two yuan in urban and rural areas has become increasingly prominent, intensified contradictions, reduction of arable land, urban quality decreased, grain production safety is seriously threatened. In the current conditions, such as how to coordinate the relationship between urban and rural areas, to ensure the protection of arable land resources and urbanization sustainable development has become an urgent problem to be solved. This choice of Jianghan Plain as the research object, the Jianghan Plain is the largest population density of Hubei Province, the most dynamic economic region, is the development of the city group of Wuhan The important hinterland, its 30 years of development of urbanization compared with the urbanization development across the country has its own characteristics. In recent years, Jianghan plain region economy, the rapid development of society, especially in speeding up the development process of urbanization, the population pressure in the Jianghan Plain grow with each passing day, each county city boundary expansion, rapid development the city, the built-up area gradually expanded the cultivated area to a certain extent is reduced. The current urbanization development quickly has significantly changed the status of land use in Jianghan Plain, especially the construction of the occupation of cultivated land resources is prominent, with the land and pollution to the serious contradiction between people and land has sharp problems deeply the effect of ecological condition in the area, the cultivated land protection more difficult. Under this realistic background, in-depth study of Jianghan Plain in recent 30 years in the development of Urbanization The coupling relationship between history and cultivated land resources, the use of computer analysis and spatial analysis of the influence of urbanization on the quantitative methods of cultivated land resources in Jianghan Plain, the driving mechanism of the change of system analysis. The county as a unit, respectively. The spatial characteristics of urbanization and cultivated land resources evolution research center of gravity model town with the cultivated land resources, the cointegration model of urbanization and cultivated land intensive use, the impulse response function model, urban and rural population and construction land "decoupling" theory to construct the coordination model; Study on spatial characteristics by means of spatial analysis methods and spatial statistics, applied econometrics, mathematical statistics, multiple regression, principal component analysis, cointegration theory, evolution characteristics of urbanization and cultivated land resources dynamic Granger causality test method in the study area and the driving force of the machine For systematic study; with the help of ArcGIS, SPSS20 and other software, the spatial and temporal evolution of urbanization and cultivated land resources, the evolution path of the center of gravity of urbanization and cultivated land, temporal coupling relationship and mechanism of urban and rural area population and land change evolution process is studied systematically, and analyzes the reasons and types of division mechanism, relationship coordination, urban construction of cultivated land resources and the coordination degree model to calculate the coordination degree between urbanization and cultivated land resources in Jianghan Plain; the county as a unit, the spatial coupling relationship between urbanization and cultivated land classification, land policy suggestions are put forward according to the different types of the urbanization development division, in order to better solve contradiction at the present stage the rapid development of urbanization and cultivated land resources excessive consumption between; and for the development of new urbanization in land use optimization, optimal allocation of land resources, cultivated land resources cut Is to protect the effective decision support. This paper is divided into eight chapters: the first chapter is the introduction. The introduction is divided into two parts, the first part expounds the research background and research significance; from the connotation of research on urbanization at home and abroad, the research status of evaluation index system of urbanization development stage characteristics and the urbanization. The coordination degree of urban land resource protection and research progress in aspects such as research review. The second part expounds the theoretical basis of this study. The second chapter is the theoretical basis of the research. This chapter is the theoretical basis of this study made a systematic elaboration. The third chapter is the research project. This section describes the research purpose and methods. And to establish the technical route of this research; in economic geography, regional economics, land science, statistics and other related theories, methods to support empirical research using quantitative, comprehensive use of land Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) and other modern calculation tools, make full use of the historical data, statistical yearbook, remote sensing image data resources, from the time series to carry out the study. At the same time, this chapter introduces the main contents of this study include: research and development of driving mechanism of Jianghan Plain 1980-2010 town; urbanization spatial change of cultivated land resources and coordination degree analysis; analysis of 1995-2010 towns in Jianghan Plain and cultivated land resources spatial coupling relationship. Finally, the study area scope were introduced and the general situation of the study area. The fourth chapter is about the evolution of cultivated land resources and urbanization development status and spatial analysis. The research is divided into five parts: the first part, first determine the connotation of urbanization. In the second part, from 1980 to 1985, 1990 in Jianghan Plain, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, section 7 annual number According to the difference of temporal and spatial evolution characteristics analysis in urban development research area and space. The third part is the land of the county town spatial temporal evolution analysis, the per capita area of urbanization from 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, the four years of study in accordance with section data, every five years a time node. The fourth part is the analysis of cultivated land changes in the number of Jianghan Plain 1980-2010 years, the present situation and the change tendency of cultivated land. The fifth part is the analysis of Jianghan plain county urbanization regional difference, using variation coefficient method to calculate the Jianghan Plain in 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, the county's urbanization rate difference. The last part is the summary, summary the contents of this chapter and the Jianghan plain construction land area growth rate between the growth rate and the cultivated area for further analysis. The fifth chapter is the cultivated land resources and urbanization coordination Study on temporal and spatial variation. Study on spatial and temporal changes of cultivated land resources is based on cultivated land resources and urbanization center evolution path analysis, using the gravity model of Jianghan Plain in 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010 the total population, population urbanization, analysis of gravity displacement changes of cultivated land resources, at the same time were analyzed. The study shows that the center of gravity displacement path the evolution of urbanization and population center of gravity locus ourdirection is evolution path consistent. The moving direction of urbanization focus of the overall presentation of moving from southwest to northeast trend, the moving direction of the overall population center increased from west to East, South east trend. The direction of movement of the center of gravity of the urbanization the overall presentation of moving from southwest to northeast trend, while the moving direction of the center of cultivated land is showing the overall trend from east to west, South West in total. Body movement direction, the focus of farmland in the Jianghan Plain space evolution and urbanization ratio showed opposite trend. Based on the cultivated land resources in Jianghan Plain and urbanization coordinated change analysis on the application of the decoupling theory and related model of Jianghan Plain farming resources and urban spatial coupling relationship, and based on the spatial coupling research on the characteristics of population urbanization and land urbanization spatial characteristics and coupling relationship of agricultural labor force population and cultivated land area, and then the combination of the coupling relationship, the 1995-2010 in Jianghan Plain, the original urban and rural population and rural and urban land spatial coupling type, by the unit division of the coupling type partition. In Jianghan Plain County as a unit. We can divide the urban and rural population and urban land spatial coupling types into 12 types. The sixth chapter is the changes of urbanization and cultivated land resources driving force Analysis and causality test. The research content includes: analysis of driving mechanism of urbanization development in Jianghan Plain, mainly on the development process of urbanization and urbanization development characteristics and driving mechanism were studied; according to the research on the cointegration analysis and Granger causality test, and the development of urbanization 1980-2010 years of intensive use of cultivated land in Jianghan Plain: a one-way causal relationship between the index and the urbanization rate of cultivated land intensive use, which improve the rate of urbanization is Granger promote the use of to improve the level of cultivated land intensive, and intensive land use index did not change Granger causes the urbanization rate changes. The results show that: the development of urbanization and cultivated land intensive use of the existence of long-term cointegration, but in the short term the two interaction stress, the development of urbanization on the conduction of cultivated land intensive utilization rate will lag 3 period, and has gradually enlarged trend; The seventh chapter is the Jianghan Plain urbanization and cultivated land protection in the coordinated development of different land policy recommendations. This chapter first summarizes the recent 30 years in Jianghan Plain urbanization and cultivated land protection in the coordinated development of the problem; relevant theoretical basis to the development of urbanization research as a guide, fully grasp the current situation and development trend of cultivated land resources in the process of urbanization. In the fourth chapter, the fifth chapter is the conclusion of the analysis as the foundation, puts forward the difference deeply and systematically in Jianghan plain area of the county land policy recommendations, in order to resolve the contradiction between the development of urbanization and cultivated land resources protection, provide scientific and reasonable for the coordinated development of urbanization cultivated land protection and sustainable, intellectual support, policy reference and decision-making basis. The eighth chapter is conclusion and prospect. This chapter summarizes the main research conclusions and innovations, and The shortcomings of this paper have been made a prospect of research in this field.

【学位授予单位】：华中师范大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F299.27;F323.211

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