FDI对珠江—西江流域四省经济增长的资本效应与溢出效应研究

发布时间：2018-01-16 16:40

本文关键词：FDI对珠江—西江流域四省经济增长的资本效应与溢出效应研究　出处：《广西师范大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放后,在建设社会主义市场经济体制探索中,我国经济以年均近10%的增长速度增长。但是在2008年全球金融危机之后,全球经济进入低迷状态。我国经济增长速度也大幅下降,进入中低速增长阶段,即“经济新常态”阶段。2014年的增长速度为7.4%。但是,从微观层面来看,珠江—西江流域四省经济增速依然强劲,2014年的增速分别为:广东9.1%,广西9%,云南9.3%,贵州15.5%。当然,也不能忽略珠江—西江流域四省是一个跨发展阶段区域,内部经济发展失衡问题严重,具有典型“东富西贫”特征。2014年珠江—西江流域四省GDP分别为:广东67792亿元,广西15673亿元,云南12814亿元,贵州9251亿元;在引进FDI方面,问题更为突出,截止2014年,广东吸收FDI1651亿元,广西61亿元,云南166亿元,贵州127亿元。比较之下,可见珠江—西江流域四省内部经济失衡严重性。同时不难发现FDI吸收量与东道国经济增长的必然联系。因此,本文将对FDI对珠江—西江流域四省经济增长的资本效应与溢出效应进行探究,尝试为珠江—西江流域四省在合理、高效利用FDI的基础上实现内部发达地区与欠发达地区联动发展提出粗浅建议。在研读中外文献、书籍基础上,本文借鉴张建刚、彭齐超、荣岩等学者研究FDI对经济增长的资本效应与溢出效应的建模方法,推导出适用于本文的固定效应变系数面板模型。利用珠江—西江流域四省份1978年至2014年相关数据进行面板数据回归分析,发现FDI对广东经济增长的资本效应为吸引FDI量每增加1%,产出总量就会增加0.4916%,溢出效应为FDI与国内投资额的比例每提高1%,则广东省的产出总量就会提高3.29%。广西、贵州、云南FDI每增加1%,产出总量依次相应提高0.3621%、0.3175%、0.3175%;而溢出效应均不显著。进一步,本文参考傅元海教授分析影响FDI效应发挥的影响因素,用东道国人才培养投入、FDI来源地、FDI利用方式、FDI产业行业分布等因素解释广东FDI资本效应、溢出效应优于其他三个省份的原因,从而给本文回归结果差异找到合理解释。最后,从中央层面、珠江—西江流域层面、地方政府层面提出建议:中央政府作为宏观经济运行方向的“掌舵人”,必须要发挥好“有为政府”作用,从国家层面出发,为借助FDI实现区域经济高效发展提供优质服务。一是将《外商投资产业指导目录》调整常态化,保证高质量FDI流入;二是坚持经济政策顶层设计连贯性、一致性;三是成立专业的区域经济合作领导小组,为区域经济组织间展开合作“穿针引线”。珠江—西江流域四省建设是一项持续时间长、涉及范围广、牵动利益大、示范作用强的大工程,四省份长期、高效合作是其建设效果检验与效应发挥的根本保障,因此必须建立长期合作机制。一是成立权责分明的珠江—西江流域四省组织架构;二是珠江—西江流域四省内部欠发达省份积极承接京津冀地区、长江三角洲地区转出的FDI;三是叠加四省份优势、合理有序布局FDI;四是坚定粤桂黔高铁经济带、粤桂合作特别试验区建设方针路线,总结经验,发挥辐射效应。各省份作为珠江—西江流域各项计划的实践主体,为进一步借助优质FDI促进经济又好、又快发展,增强自身吸引力尤为重要。一是加强基础设施建设;二是加强人力资本投资;三是推进市场一体化建设,避免因市场分割造成经济运行效率低下问题。
[Abstract]:After the reform and opening up, in the exploration of the construction of socialist market economy, China's economy at an average annual growth rate of nearly 10% growth. But after the 2008 global financial crisis, the global economy into recession. China's economic growth rate also fell sharply, into the low growth stage, namely "economic new normal stage of.2014 years but the growth rate of 7.4%., from the micro level, the Pearl River - West River Basin four province economic growth remains strong, growth in 2014 were: Guangdong 9.1%, Guangxi 9%, Yunnan 9.3%, Guizhou 15.5%., of course, also can not be ignored for the Pearl River - West River basin four provinces is a cross regional development stage, the problem of internal imbalance of economic development seriously, has the typical" East Fusi poor "characteristics in.2014 Pearl River, Xijiang River four GDP respectively: Guangdong 67792 yuan, Guangxi 15673 yuan, Yunnan 12814 yuan, Guizhou 925 billion 100 million yuan; the introduction of FDI That problem is more prominent, as of 2014, Guangdong absorbed FDI1651 billion yuan, Guangxi 6 billion 100 million yuan, Yunnan 16 billion 600 million yuan, 12 billion 700 million yuan in Guizhou. By comparison, the Pearl River - West River Basin four visible internal economic imbalances. At the same time, it is not difficult to find the inevitable contact FDI absorption and the economic growth of the host country. Therefore, this article will explore the FDI on the capital effect of Pearl River, Xijiang River four provinces economic growth and spillover effect, try for the Pearl River, Xijiang River four provinces in the reasonable and efficient use of FDI based on the realization of the internal developed region and undeveloped region joint development puts forward some suggestions. In the study of Chinese and foreign literature, books on the basis of this article from Zhang Jiangang. Peng Qichao, Rong rock scholars such as FDI on the capital economic growth effect and spillover effect modeling method, coefficient panel fixed effect model is derived in this paper. The Pearl River - West River In four provinces from 1978 to 2014 data regression analysis of the data, found that the FDI of capital effect on economic growth in Guangdong to attract the amount of FDI increased 1%, the total output will increase 0.4916%, the spillover effect of FDI and domestic investment ratio increase by 1%, while the total output of Guangdong province will improve the 3.29%. in Guangxi, Guizhou. Every increase in Yunnan FDI 1%, the total output in a corresponding increase of 0.3621%, 0.3175%, 0.3175%; while the spillover effects are not significant. Further, the influence factors of Professor Fu Yuanhai reference to analyze the effect of FDI effect, with the host country personnel training input, FDI source, FDI use, FDI industry distribution and other factors to explain Guangdong FDI capital effect, reason of spillover effect is better than the other three provinces, so as to give the regression results difference to find a reasonable explanation. Finally, from the central level, the Pearl River - West River basin level. Advise party government level: the central government as a macroeconomic direction at the helm, must play a good "for the government", starting from the national level, for the use of FDI to provide quality services to achieve efficient development of the regional economy. One is the "Foreign Investment Industrial Guidance Catalogue adjustment normalization, ensure high quality FDI; two is to adhere to the top-level design of economic policy coherence and consistency; the three is the establishment of regional economic cooperation in the leading group of professional cooperation," act as a go-between "into a regional economic organization. The Pearl River - West River Basin four province construction is a long duration, involving a wide range, affecting the interests of large, large demonstration project the role of a strong, long-term cooperation, four provinces, is the fundamental guarantee to play the effect of inspection and construction effect, so it is necessary to establish long-term cooperation mechanism. One is the establishment of clear responsibilities of the Pearl River - West River Basin four Provincial organization; two is the Pearl River - West River basin within four provinces in the underdeveloped provinces actively undertake the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region, the Yangtze River Delta region to FDI; three is the superposition of four provinces, a reasonable and orderly layout of FDI; four Guangdong Guangxi Guizhou high iron is a strong economic zone, Guangdong and Guangxi cooperation in the construction of special test area course summary experience, play radiation effects. Each province as the subject of practice, Pearl River, Xijiang River Basin of the plan, to further promote economic FDI with high quality and good and fast development, enhance their attractiveness is particularly important. One is to strengthen infrastructure construction; the two is to strengthen the investment of human capital; the three is to promote the integration of the construction market, avoiding market segmentation the operation problem of low efficiency of economy.

【学位授予单位】：广西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127

【参考文献】