中国钢铁产业区域布局调整研究

发布时间：2018-02-08 20:21

本文关键词： 钢铁需求预测合理产能产业布局废钢　出处：《中国地质科学院》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：钢铁产业是国民经济建设的基础性行业,钢铁产业的合理布局有助于区域经济合理、有序发展。在经济转型与生态文明建设的背景下,钢铁产业面临产能过剩、经营环境恶化和环保压力空前的问题。在此背景下,分析未来钢铁需求,判断钢铁合理产能,调整优化钢铁产业发展布局,对钢铁产业转型升级意义重大。基于此,本文从总体和区域钢铁合理需求分析出发,在判断未来需求的基础上,分析钢铁产业布局的影响因素,提出我国钢铁产业区域布局建议,以期为钢铁产业转型升级的发展方向提供一些线索。本文运用钢铁需求的“S”形规律和部门需求分析法对未来20年我国钢铁的合理需求进行了分析和预测。从经济发展水平、城市化率、产业结构、基础设施建设水平等方面综合分析发现：目前我国钢铁需求已步入峰值区,峰值期间我国钢铁需求总量在7.3～7.5亿吨之间。按照“S”形规律对我国钢铁需求预测结果显示：乐观情境下,未来钢铁需求趋势将呈缓慢下降态势,到2025年前后达到稳定,后平台期消费量在6～6.6亿吨之间。按照部门需求分析法对钢铁需求预测结果显示,未来建筑业在钢铁消费结构中将快速下降,到2035年降到38%,机械制造和汽车制造、以及一些战略性新兴产业对于钢铁的需求将会上升。本文以经济发展水平和钢铁运输半径作为划分标准,将我国划分为东部沿海地区、中部地区、西北地区和西南地区四个区域。通过对各个区域经济发展状况、钢铁消费水平进行分析,运用“S”形规律对不同区域钢铁消费趋势进行了预测。预测结果表明：东部沿海地区已经处于钢铁需求的峰值区间,未来该地区钢铁需求量将会保持着相对较高的水平,但需求占比会有所下降；其它三个区域钢铁需求还会呈较快的增长趋势,中部地区、西南地区和西北地区三个地区将在2017～2020年前后先后达到钢铁需求的顶点,顶点时钢铁人均消费量分别在470～490kg左右、320kg左右和350～380kg左右。通过对我国钢铁产业布局的现状进行剖析,发现目前我国钢铁产业呈现东多西少、北重南轻,内陆多、沿海沿江少,缺水地区钢铁产能比重大,资源依托为主的格局和钢厂城市型布局依然明显几个特征。通过对影响钢铁产业布局的影响因素进行详细分析,发现目前影响钢铁产业布局的决定性因素是铁矿石、废钢等资源因素和市场需求因素,而环境因素对未来钢铁产业的合理布局会起到较大的作用。本文分析了我国钢铁产品的出口趋势,结合需求预测的结果,判断了未来我国钢铁合理产能。总体来说,我国保持8-9亿吨的钢铁产能是相对合理的,但生产结构中,电炉钢的产能占比将会发生较大变化。通过对我国未来的废钢供应能力进行分析和预测,判断2020年以后我国废钢资源的供应能力将会以较快速度增长,届时,电炉钢产能也将较快提升,预计到2035年,我国电炉钢产能占比将达到55%。依据不同区域的需求水平和出口能力分析,本文也对不同区域的合理产能布局进行了判断,未来东部沿海地区钢铁产能将会有所下降,并将大幅转变生产结构,预计到2035年,东部沿海地区电炉钢产能占地区总产能比例将达到70%左右；中部、西南和西北地区的区域内钢铁产能将会适量扩张,但主要是通过承接通过东部沿海地区产业转移的方式增加产能,产能扩张以满足本区域内需求为主。
[Abstract]:The iron and steel industry is the foundation of the national economy and the construction industry, the reasonable layout of the steel industry will contribute to regional economic and reasonable, orderly development. In the economic transformation and the construction of ecological civilization under the background of iron and steel industry faces overcapacity, the deterioration of the operating environment and the environmental pressure of unprecedented problems. Under this background, analysis of the future steel demand, judgment reasonable steel production capacity, adjust and optimize the layout of the development of iron and steel industry, transformation and upgrading of great significance for the iron and steel industry. Based on this, this article from the overall and reasonable demand for regional steel is analyzed, based on the judgment of the future demand, analysis of the factors influencing the distribution of iron and steel industry, iron and steel industry put forward regional layout suggestions, in order to provide some clues for the iron and steel industry restructuring and development direction of upgrading.
Analyze and forecast analysis of China's steel demand a reasonable method for the next 20 years the demand for steel "S" shape and the law department needs. From the level of economic development, city rate, industrial structure, comprehensive analysis of infrastructure construction and other aspects of the level of that at present China's steel demand has entered the peak area, peak during the period of the total steel demand in China is between 7.3 to 7.5 tons. In accordance with the "S" shaped law on China's steel demand forecasting results show that the optimistic scenario, the future steel demand trend will slow decline, before and after 2025 to stabilize after the platform period consumption in 6 to 6.6 tons. According to department needs analysis the prediction results of steel demand, the future of the construction industry in the rapid decline in the consumption structure of iron and steel, to 2035 dropped to 38%, machinery manufacturing and automobile manufacturing, as well as some strategic emerging industries for steel The demand for iron will rise.
In this paper, the level of economic development and steel transportation radius as the division standard, divides China into the eastern coastal region, central region, four regions in Northwest and southwest regions. Based on the regional economic development in the various analysis of steel consumption level, using the "S" shape distribution has been predicted for steel consumption trends in different regions. The forecast results show that the eastern coastal area is at the peak interval of steel demand, the future steel demand in the region will maintain a relatively high level, but the demand for decline; the other three areas of steel demand will increase rapidly, the central region, three areas in the Southwest and northwest regions after 2017~2020 years the demand for steel has reached the peak, peak steel consumption per capita in 470 ~ 490kg, about 320kg and about 350 ~ 380kg.
Through the analysis of present situation of China's iron and steel industry layout, found that China's iron and steel industry in the east than in West, North South light, inland, coastal, arid areas of iron and steel production capacity than the major, relying on resources as the main pattern of mills and city layout is still obvious several characteristics. Through the detailed analysis of influencing factors influence of iron and steel industry layout, found that the decisive factors influencing the distribution of iron and steel industry is iron ore, scrap steel and other factors resource factors and market demand, and the rational distribution of environmental factors on the future of the steel industry will play a greater role.
This paper analyzes the trend of China's exports of steel products, combined with the demand forecasting results, determine the future of China's steel production capacity is reasonable. Overall, our country is 8-9 tons of steel production capacity is relatively reasonable, but the production structure, electric steel production accounted for more than the changes will occur. By analyzing and forecasting for the future of China's ability to judge the scrap supply, after 2020 China scrap resources supply capacity will be at a faster pace, then, EAF steel production capacity will rapidly increase, is expected to 2035, China's production of electric steel accounted for up to 55%.
Based on the analysis of different regional levels of demand and export capacity, the reasonable production layout on the different areas of judgment, the future of eastern coastal areas of iron and steel production capacity will decline, and will significantly change the structure of production, is expected to 2035, the eastern coastal areas of EAF steel production accounted for the total production area ratio will reach about 70%; central, southwest and in the northwest region of iron and steel production capacity will be the amount of expansion, but mainly to increase productivity by undertaking the industrial transfer of the eastern coastal areas, the expansion of production capacity to meet the demand in the region for the Lord.

【学位授予单位】：中国地质科学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.31

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