广州市公路运输货运枢纽需求预测及规划布局研究

发布时间：2018-03-27 07:35

本文选题：广州市　切入点：公路运输　出处：《北京工业大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：公路货运体系的框架结构随着我国公路货物运输进入快速发展时期和随着我国经济社会的发展已基本形成。在整个公路货物运输体系的规划、建设中，公路运输货运枢纽布局规划均发挥着重要的角色，同时公路货物运输体系的重要组成部分是公路运输货运枢纽。《公路运输枢纽总体规划编制办法》在2007年交通运输部为使国家公路运输枢纽规划编制工作科学化、合理化、规范化的背景下制定出台。在实际的公路运输货运枢纽发展过程中，编制办法对我国公路货物运输枢纽的建设发挥了相当重要的作用。近年来，广州市经济和交通运输事业迅速发展，珠三角城市群发展规划和广州市城市建设总体战略规划相继出台，广州市域行政区划作了新的调整，区域战略格局呈现新的态势，同时，《国家高速公路网规划》以及《国家公路运输枢纽布局规划》的编制完成，对广州市公路运输枢纽规划布局提出了更高的要求，需要对广州市公路运输枢纽规划布局进行重新调整，使之能够适应新形势下广州市经济社会发展的需要，对统筹珠三角区域经济协调发展、更好的发挥广州市作为华南地区中心城市的“带动全省、辐射华南、影响东南亚”的职能具有十分重要的意义。本文结合广州市公路货运枢纽站场的现状、未来发展趋势及货运站场、物流中心的管理、规划、布局等存在的问题进行了相关研究。同时，在进行广州市货运量的预测过程中引用线性回归法、指数平滑法和弹性系数等进行预测，取预测结果中合适的数值或均值作为最终预测结果。根据广州市全社会货运量预测、公路货运量预测、以及公路货运枢纽站作业量占公路货运量的比重等指标，计算出未来各特征年公路货运枢纽站场作业量。最后根据站场布局的原则和目标，采用定性与定量分析相结合的方法对广州市公路运输货运枢纽站场进行布局研究，，并提出了布局方案。
[Abstract]:The frame structure of the highway freight transportation system has been basically formed along with the transportation of Chinese highway goods into the rapid development period and along with the development of our country ' s economy and society . In the planning and construction of the whole highway freight transportation system , the layout planning of the highway transportation hub plays an important role . At the same time , the main part of the highway freight transportation system is the road transport freight hub . In the course of the development of the highway transportation hub , the compilation method plays an important role in the construction of the highway freight transport hub in China .

In recent years , Guangzhou ' s economic and transportation industry has developed rapidly , the development planning of Pearl River Delta and the overall strategic planning of Guangzhou city construction have been introduced successively , the regional administrative division of Guangzhou has made a new adjustment , and the regional strategic pattern presents a new situation . At the same time , the planning layout of the highway transportation hub in Guangzhou has been completed .

In the light of the present situation of Guangzhou highway freight hub station , the future development trend , the management , planning and layout of freight station and logistics center are studied . At the same time , by using linear regression method , exponential smoothing method and elastic coefficient in the forecasting process of the freight volume in Guangzhou , the suitable numerical value or mean value is taken as the final forecast result .

【学位授予单位】：北京工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U492.144

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