中国转型期经济动态效率研究（1993-2012）

发布时间：2018-05-27 13:42

本文选题：动态效率 + AMSZ准则　；参考：《厦门大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：经济动态效率一直是经济增长理论研究关键,其核心问题是资本积累是否过度,即是否超过的黄金律所要求的水平。如果资本积累超过黄金律水平,说明储蓄相对过多,人均消费没有达到最大化水平,经济没有处于帕累托最优状态,此时,经济是动态无效的。因此,我们可以通过衡量经济中资本积累是否过度来检验经济动态效率。首先,本文总结了以往学者对经济动态效率的研究成果,在对动态效率理论梳理分析的基础之上,借鉴AMSZ现金流准则对中国1993—2012年转型期的经济动态效率进行了再检验,并得出如下结论：(1)中国经济动态效率呈倒U型变动。具体表现为中国经济在1993—2002年总资本收益大于总投资,处于动态有效阶段；2002年—2012年总资本收益小于总投资,经济转向动态无效；(2)中国经济动态效率与经济周期有关,自2008年金融危机以来,中国经济动态效率加剧恶化。同时利用上述方法对区域经济动态效率进行检验时,发现：(1)东部地区经济在样本期内一直处于动态有效状态,中部次之,西部最低,表明中国经济动态效率与区域经济发展水平有关。(2)东中西地区资本收益占生产总值的比重呈收敛趋势,中西部地区的投资占生产总值比重近几年来迅速超过东部地区。其次,通过对中国经济动态效率研究分析,并结合我国转型期的特征,我们‘认为：投资水平是资本存量快速积累的主要因素,过度投资导致人均资本存量快速增加,根据资本边际产出递减规律,使得资本收益率下降,进而拉低经济动态效率；财政分权增强了地方政府干预经济的能力,但是也导致资源配置扭曲程度增大,不利于经济动态效率的改善；产业结构优化能促进资源合理流动,改善资源配置的扭曲程度,提高资源的配置效率,有利于经济动态效率提高。基于此,本文利用省级面板数据对上述假设进行了检验,结果证实假设与事实相符。最后,本文结合实证检验的结果,针对我国经济的实际情况,分析了消除我国经济动态无效的途径,并提出相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:Economic dynamic efficiency has always been the key to the study of economic growth theory. The core problem is whether the accumulation of capital is excessive, that is, whether to exceed the required level of gold law firms. If the capital accumulation exceeds the gold rule level, the savings are relatively excessive, the per capita consumption does not reach the maximum level, the economy is not in the Pareto optimal state, at this time, the economy is dynamic and ineffective. Therefore, we can measure whether the accumulation of capital in the economy is excessive to test the dynamic efficiency of the economy. First of all, this paper summarizes the previous research results of economic dynamic efficiency, on the basis of combing and analyzing the dynamic efficiency theory, using the AMSZ cash flow criterion to re-test the economic dynamic efficiency in the period of 1993-2012 in China. And draw the following conclusion: 1) the dynamic efficiency of China's economy shows an inverted U-shaped change. In particular, the total capital income of China's economy in 1993-2002 was larger than that of total investment, which was in a dynamic and effective stage, and the total capital income in 2002-2012 was less than that of total investment, and the economic dynamic shift was ineffective.) the dynamic efficiency of China's economy was related to the economic cycle. Since the 2008 financial crisis, China's dynamic economic efficiency has worsened. At the same time, when using the above method to test the dynamic efficiency of regional economy, it is found that the economy in the eastern region has been in a dynamic effective state in the sample period, followed by the central region and the lowest in the western region. The results show that the dynamic efficiency of China's economy is related to the level of regional economic development. (2) the proportion of capital income to GDP in East, West and West regions is convergent, and the proportion of investment in the central and western regions to GDP has rapidly surpassed that of the eastern regions in recent years. Secondly, by studying and analyzing the dynamic efficiency of China's economy and combining the characteristics of China's transition period, we think that the level of investment is the main factor of the rapid accumulation of capital stock, and overinvestment leads to the rapid increase of capital stock per capita. According to the law of diminishing marginal output of capital, the rate of return on capital decreases, which leads to lower dynamic economic efficiency. Fiscal decentralization enhances the ability of local governments to intervene in the economy, but it also leads to the distortion of resource allocation. The optimization of industrial structure can promote the rational flow of resources, improve the distortion of resource allocation, improve the efficiency of resource allocation, and improve the economic dynamic efficiency. Based on this, this paper uses provincial panel data to test the above hypothesis, and the results confirm that the hypothesis is in accordance with the facts. Finally, based on the results of empirical test, this paper analyzes the ways to eliminate the invalidation of China's economic dynamic, and puts forward some relevant policy recommendations according to the actual situation of China's economy.
【学位授予单位】：厦门大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124

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