长江三角洲区域土地利用变化的人文驱动及调控研究

发布时间：2018-07-01 14:03

本文选题：土地利用变化 + 长江三角洲区域　；参考：《南京农业大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：土地资源是重要的生产资料,是国民经济和社会发展的重要基础。土地利用变化是在各种驱动力作用下人类与自然界的交互影响的体现,加强土地利用变化的驱动力研究是预测和分析土地利用演变的基础。而随着我国城镇化和工业化进程的加快,建设占用耕地已无可避免,深入研究土地利用变化的驱动机理对促进耕地的有效保护和土地利用布局的科学性具有十分重要的作用。改革开放以来,以上海、江苏(分别为苏州、无锡、常州、镇江、南京、扬州、泰州和南通八市)和浙江(分别为杭州、嘉兴、湖州、绍兴、宁波、舟山和台州七市)为代表的长江三角洲区域,成为全国经济发展最具活力、最富饶的区域之一,随着工业化、城市化、农业现代化的快速发展,土地利用已经呈现出有别于我国其他地区的发展特点。基于此,本文以长江三角洲地区为例,以全国土地变更调查数据为数据源,找出影响该区域主要地类变化的人文驱动因素及其作用机理,对推进节约集约利用土地资源、保护耕地和保障粮食安全、构建城乡发展一体化建设体系均具有重要理论价值和现实意义。本论文结合我国新型城镇化的大背景,尊重区域特色,重新审视了长江三角洲区域土地利用变化及人文驱动机制,在长江三角洲区域土地利用变化的DPSR分析框架构建、基于人口、经济和政策三维度的人文驱动因素分析以及长江三角洲区域土地利用变化压力分析方面具有一定的创新性。本文研究内容、方法如下：第一,论文对国内外土地利用变化的相关研究进行了系统回顾,并对人地关系理论、PSR理论、土地区位理论、农地非农化理论、土地控制论等加以分析与对比,阐释了土地利用变化的基本概念,构建了长江三角洲区域土地利用变化的DPSR理论分析框架。第二,分别从耕地和建设用地两类土地面积变化的特征上解译了长江三角洲区域土地利用状态演进特点。在系统梳理研究不同时期土地利用分类标准体系的基础上,对耕地和建设用地数据口径进行了调整统一,并对区域耕地和建设用地状态演进的具体特征和规律进行分析,研究发现：1996-2012年该地区耕地规模从5962.58万亩减少至4874.76万亩,17年间净减少18.24%。其中水田和水浇地面积逐步减少,旱田面积则有所增加。1996-2012年区域建设用地规模从2208.24万亩增加至3848.80万亩。17年间净增加74.29%，，平均年净增加为96.50万亩。以2004年为分界点,耕地减少速度和建设用地扩张速度分别呈不规则“U”型和倒“U”型特征。第三,从人口驱动力、经济驱动力和政策驱动力三个视角,结合典型城市重点讨论人口规模、城市化、房地产业发展和财政收入偏好等对土地利用变化的影响及驱动机制。同时,运用构建的长江三角洲区域土地利用变化的人文驱动力指标体系,定量分析了人口、经济和政策因素对长江三角洲区域建设用地扩张和耕地面积变化的影响。结果表明：人口、经济、政策驱动力对长江三角洲区域建设用地和耕地面积变化均有不同程度的影响,如人口驱动力中人口总量每上升1%,会导致建设用地增加1.70%,地均农业从业人员数每增加1%,会使耕地面积增加1.11%。经济驱动力中农村人均纯收入每增加1%,耕地数量减少0.69%,城镇人均可支配收入每增加1%,建设用地数量增加0.08%,可见随着长江三角洲区域居民收入提高,土地资源内部结构会产生一定变化。而我国对农田水利投资仍显薄弱,没有对保护耕地形成很好的支持。政策驱动力中非农产业在国民经济中所占比重每上升1%,建设用地将下降0.67%,原因可能是长江三角洲区域经济发展已逐渐远离了单纯依赖消耗土地资源谋求GDP增值的阶段,城市经济越发达,建设用地集约效果反而会凸现。农业结构调整也是造成耕地减少的一大因素,随着种植业在农业产值中的比重每下降1%,会使耕地面积下降0.43%。第四,从建设用地和耕地面积演化的双重路径对长江三角洲区域土地利用变化趋势进行预测。论文利用灰色系统理论,建立了地均农业从业人员数、城市化率、农村人均纯收入、农村人均住房面积、农业结构调整和地均粮食产量构成的耕地利用变化预测模型,以及人口密度、城市化率、地均GDP、固定资产投资和非农产业比重构成的建设用地利用变化预测模型,预测精度检验结果表明灰色预测精度高,可信度大。预测结果：未来5-10年长江三角洲区域耕地面积下降和建设用地规模扩张还将持续。根据预测,在保持目前经济社会发展速度和耕地与建设用地利用变化速度状态下,到2020年长江三角洲区域实现2020年土地利用规划目标的将有545.36万亩的耕地缺口压力和885.97万亩的建设用地需求压力。第五,将长江三角洲区域未来土地利用变化的趋势与长江三角洲区域土地利用变化的人文驱动机制分析结果相结合,论文从区域土地利用调控体系、手段和对策三方面提出了完善长江三角洲区域土地利用调控模式,并围绕人口驱动力、经济驱动力和政策驱动力提出了促进长江三角洲区域土地资源可持续利用的土地调控政策。
[Abstract]:Land resources are important production data and an important basis for national economic and social development. Land use change is the embodiment of the interaction of human and nature under various driving forces. The research on driving force of land use change is the basis for predicting and analyzing the change of land use. With the urbanization and industrialization of China, the land use change is the basis of the prediction and analysis of land use change. The accelerated process of construction and occupation of cultivated land is inevitable. It is very important to study the driving mechanism of land use change in order to promote the effective protection of cultivated land and the scientific nature of land use layout. Since the reform and opening up, Shanghai and Jiangsu (respectively Suzhou, Wuxi, Changzhou, Zhenjiang, Nanjing, Yangzhou, Taizhou and Nantong, eight cities) The Yangtze River Delta region, represented by Zhejiang (Hangzhou, Jiaxing, Huzhou, Shaoxing, Ningbo, Zhoushan and Taizhou seven cities), has become one of the most dynamic and richest regions in the country's economic development. With the rapid development of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization, soil and soil utilization has shown its characteristics different from other regions of our country. In this case, taking the Yangtze River Delta as an example, taking the national land change survey data as the data source, this paper finds out the human driving factors affecting the major changes in the region and its mechanism of action. It is important to promote the conservation and intensive use of land resources, protect the cultivated land and ensure the security of grain, and build an integrated construction system of urban and rural development. According to the background of the new urbanization in China and the regional characteristics, this paper reexamines the land use change and human driving mechanism in the Yangtze River Delta region, and constructs the DPSR analysis framework of land use change in the Yangtze River Delta region, and the human driving factors based on the population, economy and the three dimensional degree of policy. The analysis and the analysis of land use change pressure in the Yangtze River Delta region have some innovation. The contents of this paper are as follows: first, the thesis systematically reviews the related research on land use change at home and abroad, and the theory of human land relations, PSR theory, land location theory, farmland non agronativeness theory and land control theory. On the basis of analysis and comparison, the basic concepts of land use change are explained, and the DPSR theoretical analysis framework for the change of land use in the Yangtze River Delta is constructed. Second, the evolution characteristics of the land use state of the Yangtze River Delta region are interpreted from the characteristics of the two types of land area change in the cultivated land and the construction land. On the basis of the classification standard system of land use in different periods, the data of cultivated land and construction land are adjusted and unified, and the specific characteristics and laws of regional cultivated land and construction land evolution are analyzed. It is found that the scale of cultivated land is reduced from 59 million 625 thousand and 800 Mu to 48 million 747 thousand and 600 mu in the 1996-2012 years, and net decrease in 17 years. In 18.24%., the area of paddy field and irrigated land gradually decreased, and the area of dry land increased in.1996-2012 years from 22 million 82 thousand and 400 mu to 38 million 488 thousand mu in.17 years. The average annual net increase was 965 thousand mu. In 2004, the speed of farmland reduction and construction land expansion rate were irregular, respectively. U "type" and "inverted" "U" type characteristics. Third, from the three perspectives of population driving force, economic driving force and policy driving force, the influence and driving mechanism of population size, urbanization, real estate development and fiscal revenue preference on land use change and driving mechanism are discussed in typical cities. The influence of population, economic and policy factors on the regional construction land expansion and the change of cultivated land area in the Yangtze River Delta is quantitatively analyzed by the changing human driving force index system. The results show that the population, economy and policy driving force have different influence on the regional construction land and the land accumulation change in the Yangtze River Delta, such as the population drive. The total increase of 1% of the total population will lead to an increase of 1.70% of the construction land and the increase of 1% of the number of agricultural employees, which will increase the area of cultivated land by an increase of 1%, the number of cultivated land by 0.69%, the per capita disposable income of the town by 1%, and the number of construction land by 0.08%, which can be seen along with the three of the Yangtze River, which can be seen along with the three of the Yangtze River. There will be a certain change in the income of the residents in the Chau region and the internal structure of land resources. However, the investment in farmland water conservancy is still weak in China, and there is no good support for the formation of cultivated land. The proportion of non-agricultural industries in the national economy increases by 1% and the construction land will fall by 0.67% in the policy driving force. The reason may be the Yangtze River Delta region. The economic development has been gradually far away from the stage of increasing the value of GDP by simply relying on the consumption of land resources. The more developed the urban economy is, the intensive effect of the construction land will become more prominent. The adjustment of the agricultural structure is also a major factor in the reduction of cultivated land. As the proportion of the planting industry in the agricultural output value decreases by 1%, the arable land will decrease by 0.43%. fourth, The land-use change trend of the Yangtze River Delta region is predicted by the dual path of the construction land and the cultivated land area evolution. By using the grey system theory, the paper sets up the number of agricultural employees, the urbanization rate, the per capita net income of the rural areas, the rural per capita housing area, the agricultural structure adjustment and the land average grain yield. The change prediction model, as well as the population density, the urbanization rate, the ground average GDP, the fixed assets investment and the non-agricultural industry proportion of the construction land use change prediction model, the prediction accuracy test results show that the grey prediction precision is high and the reliability is big. The forecast results are: the land area decline and the construction land scale in the Changjiang Delta region in the next 5-10 years. The expansion will continue. According to the forecast, under the condition of maintaining the speed of economic and social development and the changing speed of farmland and construction land, by 2020 the land use planning target of the Yangtze River Delta region will have 5 million 453 thousand and 600 mu of cultivated land gap pressure and 8 million 859 thousand and 700 mu of demand pressure on construction land in 2020. Fifth, the Yangtze River Delta The trend of land use change in the area of the continent is combined with the result of the analysis of the human driving mechanism of land use change in the Yangtze River Delta. The paper puts forward the mode of improving the land use regulation in the Yangtze River Delta region from three aspects of regional land use regulation system, means and countermeasures, and surrounding the population driving force, economic driving force and politics. The policy driving power puts forward the land regulation policy to promote the sustainable utilization of the land resources in the Yangtze River Delta.
【学位授予单位】：南京农业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F301.24

【参考文献】