九龙江龙津溪流域景观格局及其生态系统服务价值动态模拟分析

发布时间：2018-07-16 16:48

【摘要】：本研究选取的龙津溪是九龙江北溪在漳州境内继九龙江西溪后的第二大支流,其为九龙江流域距漳州、厦门两市用水取水口最近的小流域,对该取水点的水质有着较大的影响,区域生态安全意义重大。龙津溪流域受人类活动干扰明显,上地利用/覆被变化剧烈,因此,本文以龙津溪流域为目标区,小尺度地研究其土地利用/景观格局变化与生态系统服务价值的变化,为充实国内在这方面的科学数据、成果和区域经济的可持续发展提供事实和依据。本文通过对研究区1986年和2007年的两期遥感影像进行分析、解译,得到了研究区两个时点土地利用类型变化的基础数据信息。据此进行土地利用类型的变化幅度、变化速度、土地利用程度、生态景观格局的时空变化等分析,并且引入生态学概念和方法估算流域生态系统服务价值量,再结合CA-Markov模型预测结果,得到龙津溪流域上地利用/景观格局及其生态系统服务价值的分析结论如下。对生态景观数量结构的变化分析的结果表明,龙津溪流域在研究期内的主要土地利用类型都是林地和耕地,平均占流域总面积的87%,是研究区的主要基质。土地利用总体变化呈现“三增二减一稳定”的特征,即表现为,林地和耕地减少；建筑用地、果园和未利用地增加；水体面积变化稳定,总体保持动态平衡。研究期内土地利用类型变化幅度最大的是建筑用地的面积,平均年变化度为增加25.04%。研究区的土地利用程度相对较高,且有上升趋势,但土地利用率并没有得到很好提高,表现为未利用地面积的增加。对生态景观空间格局的变化分析的结果表明,研究期内龙津溪流域林地和耕地的斑块优势度一直都比较高,表现出明显的集中分布,连通性较好,斑块较大,但有一定的破碎度；建筑用地的连通性有变好的趋势；果园的连通性总体较好,但斑块优势度不高；水体斑块破碎,优势度小；未利用地的连通性差,斑块的优势度非常小。景观尺度水平的分析说明斑块聚集度总体是下降的,景观格局的均匀度是总体上升的。对生态系统服务价值变化的分析结果表明,研究区在1986-2007年生态系统服务总价值量呈连续下降趋势,原因在于单项生态系统服务价值系数较高的林地和水体的而积都是处于下降趋势。生态系统服务总价值量的下降趋势,反映了该地区生态系统为人类提供各种服务能力的退化,说明了龙津溪流域的土地利用类型的调整从宏观角度来看是不可持续的。对生态系统单项服务功能价值的变化分析结果表明,所有服务项目的价值量1986-2007年的二十一年间均呈总体下降趋势,这说明了该区生态系统功能的持续退化,建议优化流域土地利用/景观格局以促进地区经济健康友好发展。基于CA-Markov模型模拟预测龙津溪流域2028年土地利用变化,结果表明,建筑用地、果园、水体和未利用地的而积增加,而林地、耕地的面积下降。验证模拟精度的Kappa系数为0.7165,预测基本可信。
[Abstract]:The Dragon Jin Xi of this study is the second major tributary of the Jiulong River North Stream in Zhangzhou after nine Longjiang Xixi, which is the nearest small watershed of the nine Longjiang River Basin from Zhangzhou and the two city of Xiamen. It has a great influence on the water quality of the water intake point, and the regional ecological security is of great significance. The land use / cover change is intense. Therefore, this paper takes the long Jin Xi River Basin as the target area, and studies the change of land use / landscape pattern change and ecosystem service value on a small scale, which provides facts and basis for the scientific data, the achievement and the sustainable development of the regional economy in this area.
Based on the analysis of the two remote sensing images of 1986 and 2007 in the study area, the paper obtained the basic data information of the change of land use types at the two time points of the study area, and then analyzed the change range, the speed of change, the degree of land use, the spatio-temporal change of the ecological landscape pattern, and the introduction of ecology. The value of the ecosystem service value of the basin is estimated by the concept and method, and the results of the CA-Markov model are combined to get the following analysis of the land use / landscape pattern and the ecosystem service value of the upper land of the long Jin Xi River Basin.
The analysis of the changes in the quantitative structure of ecological landscape shows that the main land use types in the study period of the long Jin Xi River Basin are woodland and cultivated land, accounting for 87% of the total area of the basin, which is the main matrix of the study area. The overall change of land use presents the characteristics of "three increase and two decrease of one stable", that is, woodland and arable land are reduced. The land use, orchard and unused land increase; the area of water body is stable and keeps dynamic balance. The largest change of land use type in the study period is the area of construction land. The average annual change degree is relatively high in the 25.04%. research area, and there is a rising trend, but the land use rate is not available. To improve very well, it represents an increase in the area of unused land.
The analysis of the spatial pattern of the ecological landscape shows that the advantage degree of the woodland and the cultivated land in the long Jin Xi River Basin is always high, showing obvious concentration distribution, better connectivity and larger patches, but there is a certain degree of fragmentation, the connectivity of the building land has a trend of better connectivity, and the connectivity of the orchard is generally better. But the plaque advantage degree is not high, the water body patch is broken, the dominance is small, the connectivity of the unused land is poor, the dominance of the patch is very small. The analysis of the landscape scale indicates that the plaque aggregation degree is generally decreased, and the evenness of the landscape pattern is generally rising.
The analysis of the changes in the value of ecosystem services shows that the total value of ecosystem services in the study area has declined continuously in the past 1986-2007 years. The reason lies in the decline trend of the forest and water body with high coefficient of service value in the single ecosystem. The decline trend of the total value of ecosystem services reflects the trend of the total value of ecosystem services. The regional ecosystem provides a variety of services for human degradation, indicating that the adjustment of land-use types in the long Jin Xi River Basin is unsustainable from a macro perspective.
The analysis of the changes in the value of the single service function of the ecosystem shows that the value of all service items in the twenty-one years of 1986-2007 years has been generally declining, which indicates the sustainable degradation of the ecosystem function in this area, and suggests optimizing the land use / landscape pattern to promote the healthy and friendly development of the regional economy.
Based on the CA-Markov model, the land use change in 2028 was simulated and predicted. The results showed that the accumulation of land, orchard, water and unused land increased, and the area of woodland and cultivated land decreased. The Kappa coefficient of verification simulation accuracy was 0.7165, and the prediction was basically credible.
【学位授予单位】：厦门大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：P901;X826

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