改革开放以来粤东西北地区区域政策评价研究

发布时间：2018-07-31 08:37

【摘要】：区域经济增长的差异性，是世界各国及各地区的广泛存在。为缩小差距，从中央到地方都把区域统筹纳入发展蓝图，区域政策这只“看得见的手”，起着优化资源配置、把控全局的关键作用。然而随着时代变迁，，区域政策不一定能完全适应现实需求，这需要科学可靠的评价，为现状判研，为未来做引导。广东省在三十多年改革剧变中，社会经济等方面取得了傲人的成绩，但在欣喜之余也应该清醒地意识到，社会发展不协调的问题严重突出。针对这一现象，广东省采取了一系列政策措施以改观现状，实施效果褒贬不一。因此，对已施行政策进行客观合理的评价，是确定广东省区域政策下一步走向的前提。本文聚焦改革开放三十多年以来广东省针对粤东西北地区出台的区域政策演变，通过描述性定性分析、数学建模分析和计算机模拟相结合的方法，进行综合评价研究。全文内容安排如下：第一章绪论部分。具体交代了本文研究背景、区域政策研究现状、研究目标与意义、研究主要内容和技术路线。通过背景解读可知，广东省的“危机感”并非杞人忧天：首先，在国家大力推行新型城镇化的今天，如何缩小地域差别这一议题显得格外突出；其次，面对省内珠三角与粤东西北地区之间相去甚远的事实，在“左右腿营养不均”的畸形发展状态下，如何赛过“四肢协调、意气风发”的苏鲁浙地区，已然成为广东省亟待解决的问题。第二章解释了本文涉及的相关概念，阐述了相关基础理论。区域非均衡发展理论作为“珠三角-粤东西北”这一“核心-边缘”结构的理论依据，很好地解释了粤东西北成为广东省的后发达地区并非偶然，然而其崛起也是顺应时势的结果。本章以一般均衡理论作为量化评价手段，探讨财政转移支付和产业转移政策两种主要政策的实施效果与实现路径。第三章为政策梳理与评价方法概述部分。本章首先梳理了改革开放以来，广东省为促进粤东西北地区协调发展出台的主要区域政策，基于此形成了时间断面上的阶段特征认识。总结得出财政转移支付政策和产业转移政策是广东省促进粤东西北地区发展的主要经济杠杆，也是第四章进行政策模拟分析的具体研究对象。其次，本章详细介绍了CGE模型构建及计算机实现的具体操作过程。第四章为评价结果与对策建议部分。本章以2007年为数据基年，在编制粤东西北三区投入产出表的基础上，核算出各区社会核算矩阵，然后通过构建粤东西北地区多部门一般均衡模型，运用计算机进行技术编程，实现对财政转移政策、产业转移政策的政策模拟与效果评价，并提出具体的对策建议。第五章在前文研究的基础上，进行结论总结与讨论，解释了文章不足与未来展望。
[Abstract]:The difference of regional economic growth is the extensive existence of countries and regions all over the world. In order to narrow the gap, regional policies play a key role in optimizing the allocation of resources and controlling the overall situation. However, with the change of times, regional policies may not be able to meet the needs of reality, which requires scientific and reliable evaluation, research for the status quo and guidance for the future. Guangdong Province has made great achievements in social and economic aspects in the course of thirty years of reform and upheaval, but it should also be soberly aware that the problem of uncoordinated social development is serious. In response to this phenomenon, Guangdong Province has adopted a series of policy measures to improve the status quo, the implementation effect is mixed. Therefore, the objective and reasonable evaluation of the implemented policies is the premise to determine the next direction of the regional policy in Guangdong Province. This paper focuses on the evolution of regional policy in Guangdong Province since the reform and opening up to the outside world in the past 30 years. Through the methods of descriptive qualitative analysis, mathematical modeling and computer simulation, a comprehensive evaluation study is carried out. The content of the thesis is arranged as follows: the first chapter is the introduction. The research background, regional policy research status, research goal and significance, main content and technical route of this paper are explained in detail. From the background analysis, we can see that Guangdong's "sense of crisis" is not groundless: first, how to narrow the regional differences is particularly prominent today when the country is vigorously promoting new urbanization; secondly, In the face of the fact that the Pearl River Delta and the northwest part of Guangdong Province are far from each other, under the malformed development of "uneven nutrition of the left and right legs," how can they outcompete the Jiangsu, Shandong and Zhejiang regions, where the limbs are coordinated and vigorous? Guangdong Province has become a problem to be solved. The second chapter explains the related concepts and basic theories. As the theoretical basis of the "core-edge" structure of "Pearl River Delta-Northwest Guangdong", the theory of regional non-equilibrium development well explains that it is no accident that the northwest part of Guangdong Province becomes a post-developed region in Guangdong Province. But its rise is also the result of the times. This chapter takes the general equilibrium theory as the quantitative evaluation means to discuss the implementation effect and realization path of the two main policies: fiscal transfer payment and industrial transfer policy. The third chapter is the summary of policy combing and evaluation methods. This chapter firstly combs the main regional policies of Guangdong province to promote the coordinated development of northwest Guangdong province since the reform and opening up, and based on this, it forms the stage characteristic cognition on the time section. It is concluded that fiscal transfer payment policy and industrial transfer policy are the main economic leverage of Guangdong province to promote the development of northwest Guangdong province, and are also the specific research object of policy simulation analysis in the fourth chapter. Secondly, this chapter introduces the construction of CGE model and the operation process of computer in detail. The fourth chapter is the evaluation result and countermeasure suggestion part. This chapter takes 2007 as the data base year, on the basis of compiling the input-output table of the three regions in the northwest of Guangdong province, calculates the social accounting matrix of each district, then through constructing the multi-department general equilibrium model of the northwest area of Guangdong Province, using the computer to carry on the technical programming. The policy simulation and effect evaluation of the fiscal transfer policy and the industrial transfer policy are realized, and the concrete countermeasures and suggestions are put forward. The fifth chapter summarizes and discusses the conclusions based on the previous research, and explains the shortcomings and future prospects of the article.
【学位授予单位】：东北师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127

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