上海自贸区对地区经济的影响效应研究——基于“反事实”思维视角
发布时间：2018-08-14 14:57
【摘要】：自贸区作为以制度改革为核心的"国家试验田",是中央政府做出的关于经济改革、转型和升级的战略决策,其目标不仅是要推动区域经济发展,更要通过先行先试的模式探索可在全国范围内推广复制的经验。本文以最早成立的上海自贸区为例,运用面板数据政策效应评估方法与合成控制法,对比自贸区成立前后经济变量的实际值与"反事实"值之差,揭示样本期内不同季度的实施效果,评估其对地区的经济效应。研究发现:两种方法评估下上海自贸区对上海地区实际人均GDP、固定资产投资及进出口总额的影响效应分别为2.82%、1.25%、2.54%、2.34%及3.24%、1.05%、2.75%、2.23%,其中对人均GDP的影响较大,所得结果大于零且基本保持一致,表明自贸区对地方经济的影响效应为正,两种方法均通过了稳健性检验。
[Abstract]:As a "national experimental field" with institutional reform as the core, the FTA is a strategic decision made by the central government on economic reform, transformation and upgrading. Its goal is not only to promote regional economic development. We should explore the experience of replication in the whole country through the first try mode. Taking the earliest established Shanghai Free Trade area as an example, using panel data policy effect evaluation method and composite control method, the difference between the actual value of economic variables and the "counterfactual" value before and after the establishment of the zone is compared. Reveal the implementation effect of different quarters in the sample period and evaluate its economic effect on the region. The results show that the impact of the two methods on the real per capita GDP, fixed asset investment and total import and export of Shanghai is 2.82% and 2.54% and 2.34%, respectively, and 2.75% and 2.23%, respectively. The results are more than zero and the results are basically the same. The results show that the effect of free trade zone on local economy is positive, and both methods have passed the robustness test.
【作者单位】： 西安交通大学经济与金融学院;南京财经大学财政与税务学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“促进区域经济均衡增长的货币政策区域化调控机制研究”(71173165)
【分类号】：F752.8
，
本文编号：2183222
[Abstract]:As a "national experimental field" with institutional reform as the core, the FTA is a strategic decision made by the central government on economic reform, transformation and upgrading. Its goal is not only to promote regional economic development. We should explore the experience of replication in the whole country through the first try mode. Taking the earliest established Shanghai Free Trade area as an example, using panel data policy effect evaluation method and composite control method, the difference between the actual value of economic variables and the "counterfactual" value before and after the establishment of the zone is compared. Reveal the implementation effect of different quarters in the sample period and evaluate its economic effect on the region. The results show that the impact of the two methods on the real per capita GDP, fixed asset investment and total import and export of Shanghai is 2.82% and 2.54% and 2.34%, respectively, and 2.75% and 2.23%, respectively. The results are more than zero and the results are basically the same. The results show that the effect of free trade zone on local economy is positive, and both methods have passed the robustness test.
【作者单位】： 西安交通大学经济与金融学院;南京财经大学财政与税务学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“促进区域经济均衡增长的货币政策区域化调控机制研究”(71173165)
【分类号】：F752.8
，
本文编号：2183222
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