碳减排对县级区域经济发展影响的研究

发布时间：2018-12-31 14:15

【摘要】：随着全球气候变暖，各个国家环保意识不断加强，我国政府也在经济发展的同时制定了一系列政策来减少温室气体的排放，与此同时我国政府对经济发展的方式也不断调整，从可持续发展到绿色经济再到当前的低碳经济，这也充分说明了我国政府对温室气体尤其是碳排放量的重视程度不断增加，低碳经济主要是指经济发展过程中，通过降低能源的消耗量或是开发新的能源来替代煤炭及石油等降低能源消耗中产生的碳排放量，进而降低大气中的碳含量，减少温室气体。河北省为了能够扩大国家相关政策的实施面，将发展低碳经济延伸到县，众所周知，县域经济的发展是国家宏观GDP发展的重要组成部分，县域经济的低碳发展直接关系着我国碳排放总量，因此本文以河北省曲周县为例，重点从分析碳减排与曲周县区域经济发展之间的关系角度，为全国县域经济的低碳发展提供借鉴。本文以节能减排与发展低碳经济为理论基础，通过对国内外碳减排及区域经济发展相关文献的研究，了解国内外在此方面的研究现状，并在此基础上，提出本文的研究意义及研究的创新点，接着文章以河北省曲周县为例，通过分析影响河北省曲周县碳排放的定性因素和定量因素，运用加权灰关联模型对碳排放量与各影响因素之间的关系进行实证分析，再以改进的EKC模型为基础分析了碳减排与曲周县区域经济发展之间的关系，并对相关序列进行了ADF单位根检验、协整检验以及格兰杰因果检验，，通过实证分析得出了两者之间的回归关系；最后根据上述实证分析结果，提出相应的对策建议。通过运用相关模型本文得出了以下结论，一方面，地区能源消耗量是影响碳排放量的主要因素，其次是居民消费价格指数；另一方面，曲周县经济增长与碳排放之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系，EKC曲线为N型，通过格兰杰因果检验得出曲周县经济增长不是碳排放持续增长的格兰杰原因，而碳排放是区域经济增长的推动因素，这是由于目前曲周县正处于EKC曲线的第一个上升时期，因此碳排放量的增加在一定程度上会加快当地的经济发展，这与曲周县的实际情况相符合。最后笔者根据得出的相关结论，从能源消耗结构、产业结构的调整以及增加环境治理投资额度和“节能”与“减排”工作并重四个角度提出了曲周县经济发展的对策建议。
[Abstract]:With the global warming and the increasing awareness of environmental protection in various countries, our government has also formulated a series of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while the economy is developing. At the same time, our government has constantly adjusted its way of economic development. From sustainable development to green economy to the current low-carbon economy, it also fully shows that our government has been paying more and more attention to greenhouse gases, especially carbon emissions. Low-carbon economy mainly refers to the process of economic development. By reducing energy consumption or developing new sources of energy instead of coal and oil, reducing carbon emissions from energy consumption, thus reducing the carbon content in the atmosphere, reducing greenhouse gases. In order to expand the implementation of relevant national policies, Hebei Province will extend the development of low-carbon economy to counties. As we all know, the development of county economy is an important part of the development of national macro GDP. The low-carbon development of county economy is directly related to the total amount of carbon emissions in China. Therefore, this paper takes Quzhou County in Hebei Province as an example, focusing on the analysis of the relationship between carbon emission reduction and regional economic development in Quzhou County. For the national county economy low-carbon development to provide reference. Based on the theory of saving energy and reducing emissions and developing low-carbon economy, this paper studies the domestic and foreign literature on carbon emission reduction and regional economic development, and finds out the current situation of domestic and foreign research in this area. The research significance and innovation of this paper are put forward. Then, taking Quzhou County of Hebei Province as an example, the qualitative and quantitative factors affecting carbon emissions in Quzhou County of Hebei Province are analyzed. Based on the improved EKC model, the relationship between carbon emission reduction and regional economic development in Quzhou County is analyzed by using weighted grey correlation model. The ADF unit root test, cointegration test and Granger causality test are used to test the correlation sequences, and the regression relationship between them is obtained by empirical analysis. Finally, according to the above empirical analysis results, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward. This paper draws the following conclusions by using the relevant model: on the one hand, regional energy consumption is the main factor affecting carbon emissions, followed by consumer price index; On the other hand, there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions in Quzhou County. The EKC curve is N-type. By Granger causality test, it is concluded that economic growth is not the Granger cause of continuous carbon emissions growth in Quzhou County. Carbon emissions are a driving factor in regional economic growth. This is because Quzhou County is now in the first rising period of the EKC curve, so the increase in carbon emissions will speed up local economic development to a certain extent. This is in line with the actual situation in Quzhou County. Finally, according to the relevant conclusions, the author puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for economic development of Quzhou County from four angles: structure of energy consumption, adjustment of industrial structure, increase of investment quota for environmental management and equal emphasis on "energy saving" and "emission reduction".
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127;F205;F224

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