我国商品房高库存成因及去库存的对策研究

发布时间：2019-02-19 08:35

【摘要】：2003-2014是中国房地产发展的黄金时期。房地产作为国民经济的支柱产业,对带动相关产业发展、抵御金融危机对经济增长的影响都起到了极大的作用。但是由于信贷扩张、土地供应等因素引起的盲目投资,造成了近年来商品房市场库存过量的情况。厘清商品房库存高企的原因以及寻求去库存的对策,对于促进房地产业健康发展,具有重要的理论意义与实践指导意义。本文在丰富的国内外相关文献基础上,全面梳理了商品房、商品房库存等理论框架,提出了多重口径的商品房库存测量方法,分析了利用市场机制与政府干预加快商品房去库存的可能路径和商品房高库存对经济的影响机制。再立足于2014年全国一线城市到四线城市商品房库存高企的状况,结合近两年房地产市场去库存政策的新变化。运用狭义口径、中等口径和广义口径全面测算商品房库存现状及去库存周期,再从全国层面,一、二线城市,三、四线城市三个层面全面考察商品房市场库存量、库存结构状况、区域分化、政策差异与最新变化,并从供需视角分析了城市土地供应、信贷扩张、商品房市场结构失衡、宏观经济环境、市场刚需变化、区域经济发展差距、高房价和市场预期波动等对商品房高库存形成的影响。最后,从市场机制与政府干预两个方面,因城施策,从城镇化进程、税收与信贷政策、土地政策、商品房市场建设等方面,对商品房去库存,提出了具体的政策建议。
[Abstract]:2003-2014 is the golden age of real estate development in China. As a pillar industry of national economy, real estate plays a great role in driving the development of related industries and resisting the impact of financial crisis on economic growth. However, the blind investment caused by credit expansion, land supply and other factors has resulted in excessive inventory in the commercial housing market in recent years. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to clarify the reasons for the high inventory of commercial housing and to seek the countermeasures of destocking for promoting the healthy development of the real estate industry. On the basis of abundant literature at home and abroad, this paper comprehensively combs the theoretical framework of commercial housing and inventory of commercial housing, and puts forward a multi-caliber inventory measurement method for commercial housing. This paper analyzes the possible ways to speed up the destocking of commercial housing by using market mechanism and government intervention and the influence mechanism of high inventory of commercial housing on the economy. Based on the situation of high inventory of commercial housing in the first to fourth tier cities of the country in 2014, combined with the new changes in the policy of destocking in the real estate market in the past two years. Using narrow caliber, medium caliber and broad caliber to calculate the inventory status and destocking cycle of commercial housing, and then to investigate the stock of commercial housing market from the national level, the first, second, third and fourth tier cities. Inventory structure, regional differentiation, policy differences and recent changes, and from the point of view of supply and demand analysis of urban land supply, credit expansion, market structure imbalance, macroeconomic environment, market rigid demand changes, regional economic development gap. High house prices and market expectations such as the impact of high inventory of commercial housing formation. Finally, from the two aspects of market mechanism and government intervention, this paper puts forward some concrete policy suggestions on the destocking of commercial housing from the aspects of urbanization process, tax and credit policy, land policy, commodity housing market construction and so on.
【学位授予单位】：广西大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23

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