青海地方政府融资平台贷款风险评估及预警机制研究

发布时间：2018-01-02 13:35

本文关键词：青海地方政府融资平台贷款风险评估及预警机制研究　出处：《青海大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：地方政府融资平台是特定历史条件下的产物，从1984年十二届三中全会通过《改革经济体制的决定》,城市经济体制改革正式开始，以“放权让利”、“利税分流”、“政企分开”等内容为核心的改革措施逐步实施，中国市场经济的活力得到释放，保持了经济速度高增长的良好态势。经济体制的改革是全面的、复杂的，其根本目的是实现市场在资源配置的基础作用，但政府融资平台的产生发展却与我国地方政府在发展经济、改善民生、决策管理中的行政意图紧密联系，这是现实的需要。从1994年我国实行分税制改革，地方税与国家税实现分开收支管理，中央政府的财政实力得到增强，但地方政府在“事权”与“财权”上的不匹配，成为地方政府开辟融资渠道的内在动因。在美国“次贷危机”的影响下，中央提出“四万亿”经济振兴计划，但其中大部分资金需要地方政府自筹，为了填补资金空白，，各级地方政府把融资平台公司作为重要工具，开始了实质性的探索实践，而中央的默许和此后出台的配套政策为其迅速发展壮大创造了客观条件。地方政府融资平台在支持重点项目建设以及应对国际金融危机冲击中发挥了积极作用，特别是对于像青海等经济欠发达地区，今后一定时期内仍然将是撬动社会资金支持地方实体经济发展的重要手段，但由于地方政府融资平台债务不断膨胀且运作机制不够规范，地方财政偿债风险日益加大。如何实现地方政府融资平台做实、做强，确保地方政府融资平台的规范有序运行，对于实现地方经济的平稳较快发展、社会民生的安定有序和谐具有重要的现实意义。本文通过对相关政策解读及青海地方政府融资平台现状的分析，梳理了地方政府融资平台的发展脉络，揭示了地方政府融资平台存在的影响因素及突出问题，结合收集了解的相关数据建立Logistic模型，提出了压力测试的设想并进行了定量实证分析，进而提出加快推动地方政府融资平台公司建设，探索建立新的融资机制等政策建议。
[Abstract]:The local government financing platform is the product under the specific historical conditions. Since 1984, the third Plenary session of the 12 Central Committee adopted the "decision on reforming the Economic system", and the reform of the urban economic system formally began, with the "decentralization of power and profit". The reform measures, such as "separation of profits and taxes" and "separation of government and enterprises", have been gradually implemented, and the vitality of China's market economy has been released. The reform of the economic system is comprehensive and complex, and its fundamental purpose is to realize the fundamental role of the market in the allocation of resources. However, the emergence and development of government financing platform is closely related to the administrative intention of local governments in developing economy, improving people's livelihood and making decisions and management. The local tax and the state tax realize separate revenue and expenditure management, the central government's financial strength is strengthened, but the local government's mismatch in the "administrative power" and "the financial power". Under the influence of the "subprime mortgage crisis" in the United States, the central government put forward the "4 tillion" economic revitalization plan, but most of the funds need to be raised by the local government. In order to fill the fund gap, local governments at all levels of financing platform companies as an important tool, began substantive exploration practice. And the acquiescence of the central government and the supporting policies issued since then created objective conditions for its rapid development and growth. Local government financing platforms have played an active role in supporting key projects and responding to the impact of the international financial crisis, especially in economically underdeveloped areas such as Qinghai. In the future, it will still be an important means to leverage social funds to support the development of local real economy, but the debt of local government financing platform is expanding and the operating mechanism is not standardized. How to realize the local government financing platform to do, strengthen, ensure the standard and orderly operation of the local government financing platform, to achieve the smooth and rapid development of local economy. The stability and harmony of people's livelihood is of great practical significance. Through the analysis of relevant policies and the current situation of Qinghai local government financing platform, this paper combs the development of local government financing platform. This paper reveals the influencing factors and outstanding problems of the local government financing platform, establishes the Logistic model combined with the relevant data collected and understands, puts forward the assumption of the stress test and carries on the quantitative empirical analysis. Then it puts forward some policy suggestions such as speeding up the construction of local government financing platform and exploring the establishment of new financing mechanism.
【学位授予单位】：青海大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.4

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