上市公司管理者过度自信对现金股利分配影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-04 11:16

本文关键词：上市公司管理者过度自信对现金股利分配影响的实证研究　出处：《杭州电子科技大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：股利政策是公司财务中的重要部分，合理的股利政策能够激发投资者的积极性，，实现公司价值最大化。我国的资本市场还有待完善，上市公司的股利分配行为存在很多不合理的地方。传统股利理论无法合理解释股利分配行为中存在的不正常现象，从不同的视角来研究股利分配政策是未来的研究方向。心理学研究发现，人普遍存在认知偏差,这些偏差会明显影响到公司财务活动。学者们在股利政策研究中考虑了认知偏差：从行为金融视角来解释股利分配。过度自信是“心理学中最稳定的发现”，我国上市公司管理者在决策中容易滋生过度自信的心理特征，导致管理者决策不理性，进而对公司正常经营产生影响。本文回顾了国内外过度自信对股利分配影响的相关研究文献发现，有的实证检验结果是正相关，而有的结果却是负相关，研究结论不一致。在相关理论基础上，分析管理者过度自信对股利分配的影响作用。然后以沪深两市2010-2012年的A股上市公司作为研究样本，采用盈余预测偏差方式衡量管理者过度自信，选取了不同偏差幅度下的4个指标，结合控制变量每股收益，每股经营现金净流量，资产负债率，公司规模，成长性和年度行业变量，从现金股利分配意愿和现金股利分配率两方面进行实证检验。并采用高管薪酬相对比和高管持股是否变化指标衡量管理者过度自信，进行稳健性检验。研究得出结论：管理者过度自信公司的现金股利分配意愿较低；管理者过度自信公司的现金股利分配率究竟是较高还是较低不确定。这对我国上市公司现金股利分配的规范、上市公司质量的提高，我国股票市场健康稳定的发展有一定的理论和实际意义。
[Abstract]:Dividend policy is an important part of corporate finance. Reasonable dividend policy can stimulate the enthusiasm of investors and realize the maximization of corporate value. China's capital market needs to be improved. There are many unreasonable places in dividend distribution behavior of listed companies. Traditional dividend theory can not explain the abnormal phenomenon in dividend distribution behavior. To study dividend distribution policy from different perspectives is the future research direction. Psychological research found that cognitive bias is common in people. These deviations will obviously affect corporate financial activities. Scholars have considered cognitive bias in dividend policy research: explain dividend distribution from the perspective of behavioral finance. Overconfidence is "the most stable finding in psychology". It is easy to breed the psychological characteristics of overconfidence in the decision-making of the managers of listed companies in our country, which leads to irrationality of the managers' decisions, and then has an impact on the normal management of the companies. This paper reviews the influence of overconfidence on dividend distribution at home and abroad and finds that some empirical results are positive correlation and some results are negative. On the basis of relevant theories, this paper analyzes the effect of managers' overconfidence on dividend distribution. Then the A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from 2010 to 2012 are taken as the research samples. Using earnings forecast deviation method to measure managers' overconfidence, 4 indexes under different deviation range are selected, combined with control variable earnings per share, net operating cash flow per share, asset-liability ratio, company size. Growth and annual industry variables, from the cash dividend distribution willingness and cash dividend distribution rate two aspects of the empirical test, and the use of executive compensation to compare and whether the change of executive shareholding indicators to measure managers overconfidence. The robustness test is carried out. The conclusion of the study is: managers overconfident companies have low willingness to distribute cash dividends; It is uncertain whether the distribution rate of cash dividend of overconfident companies is higher or lower. This will improve the quality of listed companies and standardize the distribution of cash dividends of listed companies in China. The healthy and stable development of China's stock market has certain theoretical and practical significance.
【学位授予单位】：杭州电子科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.51;F272.91;F275

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