中国黄金储备的适度规模研究

发布时间：2018-01-10 04:05

本文关键词：中国黄金储备的适度规模研究　出处：《湖南大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：黄金作为最稀有、最珍贵的金属之一，在历史上具有独一无二的内在价值和稳定性，虽然如今的黄金已经不再担任货币的角色，但是由于其兼具商品和货币双重属性，因而有助于缓解金融危机、稳定汇率，并行使国际支付的最终手段等。自2001年以来，由于中国持续多年的贸易和资本项目双顺差，官方外汇储备持续迅猛地增加，，到2013年9月我国外汇储备总额已高达36626.62亿美元，但相比之下我国持有的黄金储备仅占外汇储备的1.6%，国际储备结构不甚合理。基于此，本文专题论述了我国黄金储备的适度规模问题。首先，研究影响我国黄金储备的经济、政治、文化等因素。其中，采用线性回归模型研究经济因素为：除了本身前一期的影响外，中国黄金储备占比主要受到流通中的货币、黄金价格、原油价格、实际汇率、通货膨胀指数和美元指数的影响。其次，采用资产组合模型测算出中国黄金储备的适度规模在3749.79吨-5096.59吨左右，占国际储备的权重为6.67%-9.06%。最后，建议采用择机购金、营运黄金、“藏金于民”和投资金矿等四种途径，实现我国黄金储备的有效增持。本文旨在为我国增持黄金储备的规模和方式提供必要的理论支持。同时也为优化我国国际储备的布局从理论的角度提出建议。
[Abstract]:As one of the rarest and most precious metals, gold has unique intrinsic value and stability in history, although it is no longer a currency. But because of its dual attributes of commodity and currency, it helps to alleviate the financial crisis, stabilize the exchange rate, and exercise the international payment of the last resort. Since 2001. Due to China's trade and capital account surplus for many years, the official foreign exchange reserves have been increasing rapidly. By September 2013, the total amount of China's foreign exchange reserves had reached three tillion six hundred and sixty-two billion six hundred and sixty-two million US dollars. By contrast, China's gold reserves only account for 1.6% of foreign exchange reserves, and the international reserve structure is not very reasonable. Based on this, this paper discusses the moderate scale of China's gold reserve. Firstly, the paper studies the economic, political, cultural and other factors that affect China's gold reserve. The linear regression model is used to study the economic factors: in addition to the previous period, the proportion of China's gold reserves is mainly affected by currency in circulation, gold price, crude oil price, real exchange rate. The impact of inflation index and dollar index. Secondly, the appropriate size of China's gold reserves is estimated by portfolio model in the range of 3749.79 tons to 5096.59 tons. The weight of international reserves is 6.67- 9.06.Finally, it is suggested that four ways should be adopted: buying gold by chance, operating gold, "storing gold in people" and investing gold. The purpose of this paper is to provide necessary theoretical support for the scale and mode of increasing China's gold reserve, and at the same time to put forward some theoretical suggestions for optimizing the layout of China's international reserves.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.54

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