信息不对称下P2P网络借贷行为的实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-11 16:24

本文关键词：信息不对称下P2P网络借贷行为的实证研究　出处：《西南财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2005年3月,全球首家P2P网络借贷公司Zopa在英国成立。Zopa的出现为当今社会提供了一种全新的投融资渠道,这种新的模式得到广大投融资者的认可,并逐渐参与其中。此后的10年间,P2P网络借贷得到了迅速发展,欧美几家发展较好的P2P网络借贷公司(Zopa、Prosper、Lending Club)也已获得了主流投资机构的垂青,其参与成员及成交规模得到了空前的发展。2006年以拍拍贷成立为标志,我国P2P网络借贷平台也开始快速发展。然而快速发展伴随着各种问题及风险的暴露：中间账户监管缺位风险、担保与关联风险、非法集资风险、财务披露风险等逐渐受到关注,并引起相关部门的重视。银监会与人民银行于2011年8月联合发文,让投资者警惕P2P网络借贷风险。文件表示,P2P网络借贷在我国发展尚处于起步阶段,存在监管及制度上的空白,提醒投资者关注受益的同时注意防范风险,同时提示其他传统金融机构对P2P网络借贷的防范,以规避风险的跨界传染。中国人民银行行长周小川在2013年“两会”答记者问时提到,新金融形式(如：P2P网络借贷)对传统金融机构带来的挑战是不可避免的,然而我们需要做到的是如何面对及适应这些新的发展及挑战,同时,这些创新模式不可避免地会带来相应的风险,因此我们要加快步伐学习,及早地吸取经验教训,不断地更新规章制度和监管标准,这样就能使整个金融行业保持一个建行的发展方向。上到各个监管机构、下到广大投资者都开始重视P2P网络借贷,P2P网络借贷的各方面信息进入大众视野,并得到深入地讨论和研究。 P2P网络借贷的发展正是融合互联网技术与思想,而诞生的一种新的金融模式,突破的传统民间金融中熟人社会的限制,在一定程度上满足了借贷双方的需求。P2P网络借贷(Peer-to-Peer)简称“人人贷”,是指贷款人和借款人通过网络中介平台进行资金借贷的行为,其中网络中介平台作为服务方,撮合借贷双方进行信息交互、信息确认和其他能促进交易成功的服务,然而仅作为中介服务,不承担资金借贷中的债务债权行为。具体的服务内容包括：个人信息认定、投资咨询、贷款审查、贷款追偿等等。 P2P网络借贷与传统金融机构一样,是连接借款人与贷款人的桥梁,然而作为一种新的机构,正独立于正规金融机构体系之外。作为新兴的金融机构,在一定程度上,满足了广大投融资者的借贷需求。在“被遗忘的金融市场”做了普惠金融意义的事情。而其形成的市场化、信用、技术机制也对金融改革影响深远。P2P网络借贷的出现,不仅体现在技术手段上的革新(将金融与互联网相结合),更改变了大众对金融市场的认识,让大众对金融市场的有了更新的认识,体现了金融市场和互联网结合后的巨大能量。在短短的几年时间,P2P网络借贷不论从成交金额上还是参与人数上在国内都有巨大的突破。平台发展方面,2012年末,P2P网络借贷平台超过100家,成交金额方面,借贷余额超过100亿,参与人数方面,总人数超过5万人,若是加上尚未统计的P2P线下业务,其成交金额和参与人数还将进一步增加。在我国,相比于传统的银行贷款形式,P2P网络借贷呈现以下特点：借贷参与者的广泛性、交易方式的灵活性和高效性、风险性和收益双高。综上所述,P2P网络借贷满足了市场需求,实现了社会效益,是普惠金融的有效补充,在很大程度上满足了个人经营消费贷款以及个人投资理财的庞大市场需求。但是上述特点也包含如下三点：参与者广泛,资金进出灵活,风险较高。这三点构成了监管层最担忧的问题,也是监管技术上最难操作的方面。在P2P网络借贷模式中,点对点的信息交换和资金流动带来了相关参与者对风险的担忧,在这样信息不对称的环境下,融资者和投资者由此产生的逆向选择和道德风险成为P2P网络借贷运行的最大障碍,加之P2P网络借贷运行目前还存在诸如法律监管缺失、政府监管空白等,从而导致其低借款成功率、高借款利率以及贷款逾期等现象的进一步恶化。本文研究目的在于通过对P2P网络借贷行为及其借款成功率及借款利率影响因素的研究,并提出相应的解决方案,为我国P2P网络借贷行业的参与者与监管者提供有价值的参考,从而让其尽可能地发挥出其应有的投融资作用,以此促进P2P行业的健康持续发展,增强我国金融市场的丰富性与多样性。本文研究框架如下：第一部分首先阐述选题背景及意义,同时对P2P网络借贷概念进行解释,讲述网络借贷与互联网金融的关联性。第二部分对国内外当前著名的P2P网络借贷平台进行简要介绍,分别讲述了Zopa、Lending Club、Prosper、拍拍贷、宜信、红岭创投的借贷模式,并对其进行了比较总结,发现我国P2P网络借贷在借鉴外国经验的同时,还进行本土创新,如引入第三方担保公司等。最后整理以往学者对P2P网络借贷的各项理论、实证研究的文献,主要涉及以下三大研究领域：(1)P2P网络借贷平台的研究；(2)P2P网络借贷的理论研究；(3)对P2P网络借贷的实证研究,主要集中在对借款成功率及借款利率高低的影响因素进行实证分析。第三部分主要是运用信息不对称理论对P2P网络借贷进行研究,首先论述P2P网络借贷行业信息不对称产生的原因,包括(1)网络技术原因,借贷双方在网络借贷过程中将各自的信息上传至网络平台上,然而由于网络在“空间”或“时间”存在各种原因,使得信息接收方不能有效地对已有信息进行筛选和理解,从而导致了双方的信息不对称；(2)投机主义原因,网络借贷双方在借贷过程中不会进行实质性的面对面沟通,贷款者只能通过网络平台上现有的信息进行判断。因此,有的借款人就有会利用这种情况,包装自己,欺骗贷款者,获得借贷资金。其次,此部分还阐述在信息不对称下P2P网络借贷的逆向选择和道德风险问题。逆向选择下不仅产生高借款利率,同时还会存在信贷配给,使得一部分人获得借款,而另一部分人未能成功获得借款,导致较低借款成功率；同时,道德风险的存在导致较低的借款成功率及较高的借款利率。第四部分对P2P网络借贷低借款成功率及高借款利率影响因素进行模型设计,并根据前文的文献综述及理论研究做出相关假设及变量的选取,分别选取了个人信息、担保信息、借款标的信息三大基本变量,包括13个独立变量,同时运用爬虫程序在拍拍贷网站进行数据挖掘,在此基础上进行数据统计及描述,对进行第五部分的实证分析做铺垫。第五部分主要利用第四章的模型及统计数据,进行实证分析,分别研究借款成功率及借款利率的影响因素,并提出相对合理的解释。实证分析发现：(1)借款成功率影响因素方面：借款利率与借款成功率呈现非线性关系,借款人年龄、借入信用、借款成功次数、按期还款次数与借款成功率呈正向关系；借款流标次数、借款期限与借款成功率呈反比关系,借款人流标次数越多、借款期限越长,贷款人出借意愿越低,其借款成功率越低；性别方面可以看出,女性与借款成功率呈正比,男性呈反比,表明女性的借款成功率相对于男性来说较高,且能促进借款成功率的提高；安全标和非提现标能增加贷款人的出借意愿,提高借款成功率；借出信用、借款金额对借款成功率没有显著影响。(2)借款利率方面：可以发现借款人年龄与借款利率呈正向关系,表明随着年龄的增加,借款利率逐渐降低；性别方面可以看出,女性与借款利率呈反比,男性呈正比,表明女性的借款利率相对于男性来说较低。借入信用、借款成功次数、按期还款次数与借款利率呈反比关系；借款流标次数、借款期限与借款利率呈正比关系,借款人流标次数越多、借款期限越长,其借款利率越高；安全标和非提现标能有效降低借款利率；借出信用、借款金额对借款成功率没有显著影响。第六部分,本节主要对全文进行总结,并提出相关建议。分别总结了我国P2P网络借贷借款成功率及借款利率的影响因素,同时根据信息不对称理论产生的逆向选择和道德风险现象,对我国P2P网络借贷行业发展提出相应的意见,包括完善我国征信体系、加强风险监管、制定相关监管法规、采取团队贷款制度等,旨在为我国未来P2P网络借贷发展提供一定的帮助,促进我国资本市场健康良好发展。本文的创新之处是在以往学者的基础上,论述P2P网络借贷在信息不对称下产生的逆向选择和道德风险问题,并运用爬虫程序,抓取P2P网络借贷平台上的真实交易数据,进行实证研究。
[Abstract]:In March , 2005 , Zoned , the world ' s first peer - to - peer network lending company , was founded in the UK . Peer - to - Peer ( P2P ) network lending ( Peer - to - Peer ) simply serves as intermediary service , does not bear the debt creditor ' s creditor ' s creditor ' s creditor ' s creditor ' s creditor ' s rights in the fund borrowing . The specific service content includes : personal information identification , investment consulting , loan review , loan recovery , etc . P2P network lending , like traditional financial institutions , is a bridge connecting borrowers and lenders . However , as a new institution , it is independent of formal financial institutions . As an emerging financial institution , it has a profound impact on financial reform . In our country , compared with traditional bank loan form , P2P network lending presents the following characteristics : the broad nature of lending participant , flexibility and efficiency of transaction method , and high risk and benefit . In conclusion , P2P network lending meets the market demand , and it is the most difficult operation in supervision technology . In the P2P network lending mode , the reverse choice and moral hazard generated by financing and investors become the biggest obstacle of P2P network lending operation . In the P2P network lending mode , the phenomenon of low borrowing success rate , high borrowing interest rate and overdue loan is further aggravated . The aim of this paper is to promote the healthy and sustainable development of the P2P industry and enhance the richness and diversity of the financial market in our country through the research on the loan behavior of P2P network and its loan success ratio and the influence factors of the loan interest rate , so as to promote the healthy and sustained development of P2P industry and enhance the richness and diversity of the financial market in China . The research framework is as follows : In the first part , the background and significance of the topic selection are explained . Meanwhile , the concept of P2P network lending is explained , and the relationship between network lending and Internet finance is described . The second part gives a brief introduction to the current famous P2P network lending platform at home and abroad . The paper gives a brief introduction to the borrowing pattern of the P2P network lending platform , and concludes that P2P network lending in our country can draw lessons from foreign experience , and also carry out local innovation , such as introducing third - party security companies . Finally , we have studied the theory of P2P network lending platform , ( 2 ) the research on P2P network lending , ( 3 ) the empirical research on P2P network lending , and mainly focused on the empirical analysis of the factors that influence the success rate of the loan and the interest rate of the loan . The third part is mainly to study the P2P network loan using the asymmetric theory of information . Firstly , it discusses the causes of asymmetric information of P2P network lending industry , including ( 1 ) the network technology reason , the borrower can not effectively screen and understand the existing information in the course of network borrowing , so that the borrower can not effectively screen and understand the existing information . The fourth part makes a model design for the low - loan success rate and the high - borrowing rate influence factor of P2P network , and makes relevant assumptions and variables selection according to the literature review and theoretical study of the preceding text . Three basic variables including personal information , guarantee information and loan target information are selected respectively , including 13 independent variables , and data mining is carried out on the auction loan website by using the crawler program , and the data statistics and description are carried out on the basis , and the empirical analysis of the fifth part is made . The fifth part mainly uses the model and statistical data of the fourth chapter to carry on the empirical analysis to study the influence factors of the loan success rate and the loan interest rate , and put forward a relatively reasonable explanation . ( 2 ) In terms of borrowing interest rate : it can be found that the borrower ' s age is positively related to the loan interest rate , indicating that the loan interest rate decreases gradually with the increase of the age ; the gender can see that the loan interest rate of the female is inversely proportional to the loan interest rate ; the more the loan flow number , the loan term and the loan interest rate are in inverse proportion , the higher the loan frequency , the longer the loan term , the higher the loan interest rate of the borrower ; In the sixth part , this section summarizes the full text , and puts forward relevant suggestions . It summarizes the influence factors of the success rate and the loan interest rate of the P2P network in our country . At the same time , according to the adverse selection and moral hazard phenomenon generated by the information asymmetry theory , this paper puts forward corresponding opinions on the development of the P2P network lending industry in our country , including perfecting the credit system of our country , strengthening the risk supervision , developing the relevant regulations , adopting the team loan system , etc . , aiming at providing some help to the future P2P network lending development in our country , and promoting the healthy development of the capital market in our country . Based on the previous scholars , this paper discusses the adverse selection and moral hazard of P2P network lending under asymmetric information , and uses the crawler program to grasp the real transaction data on the P2P network lending platform and make an empirical study .

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F831.2;F832.4

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