中国短期国际资本流动的影响因素及风险控制

发布时间：2018-01-12 21:21

本文关键词：中国短期国际资本流动的影响因素及风险控制　出处：《山西财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2008年美国次贷危机爆发，使全球经济陷入萎靡，2011年欧洲主权债务危机的全面升级又使全球金融局势变得更加复杂和不稳定，全球经济正步履蹒跚的前行，国际间资本波动更加频繁和难以预测。我国在2005年汇改后，实行有管理的浮动汇率制，资本市场逐渐开放，资本管制逐渐放松，为国际资本的流入提供了良好的市场基础。短期国际资本流入为我国金融市场注入活力，也加快了我国资本市场开放进程。但是，近年来随着人民币升值压力的持续攀升和资产价格的不断上涨，越来越多的资本基于“套汇”“套利”的动机流入我国，我国国际资本流动的规模急剧扩大，特别是面临短期国际资本大规模流入和逆转带来的影响冲击。短期国际资本流动问题已引起理论界的多方关注。本文阐述了短期国际资本流动的涵义及经典动因理论，包括利率决定论、汇率决定论、资产组合论和交易成本论。分别描述了全球资本流动现状和中国资本流动现状及特点，，总结了短期国际资本在我国的几种流动渠道，包括经常账户下和资本账户下的正常流动渠道及“地下钱庄”“货币走私”等非法的隐蔽性流动渠道。在此基础上用直接法和间接法对流入我国短期资本进行估算。分析得出当前短期国际资本流动的新特点和发展趋势，并运用短期资本流动的动因理论，结合中国的实际经济形势分析了影响我国短期国际资本流动的因素有利率差、汇率差、证券市场价格及投资者的投资信心。其中利率差和投资者信心两项因素影响显著，其他因素与短期国际资本流动的相关性比较复杂。本文采用了实证建模的方法使研究更具有说服力。系统的分析了短期国际资本流动给中国经济带来的影响，最后提出了中国对短期国际资本流动进行管制的政策建议，包括对资本账户开放的管制，对汇率的管制及化短期国际资本为长期资本等对策建议。这些建议将对我国管理国际资本流动具有重要借鉴意义。
[Abstract]:In 2008, the subprime mortgage crisis broke out in the United States, which brought the global economy into a slump. In 2011, the overall escalation of the European sovereign debt crisis made the global financial situation more complex and unstable. The global economy is stumbling forward, the international capital fluctuation is more frequent and unpredictable. After 2005, our country implemented the managed floating exchange rate system, the capital market gradually opened up. Capital control is loosening gradually, which provides a good market basis for the inflow of international capital. Short-term international capital inflow injects vitality into our financial market and speeds up the process of opening our country's capital market. In recent years, with the rising pressure of RMB appreciation and the rising of asset price, more and more capital flows into our country based on the motive of arbitrage and arbitrage, and the scale of international capital flow expands rapidly. Especially in the face of the impact of the large-scale inflow and reversal of short-term international capital, the short-term international capital flow has attracted the attention of many theorists. This paper expounds the meaning of short-term international capital flow and classical motivation theory, including interest rate determinism, exchange rate determinism. Portfolio theory and transaction cost theory. This paper describes the current situation of global capital flows and the current situation and characteristics of Chinese capital flows, and summarizes several short-term international capital flow channels in China. Including normal channels of movement under the current account and the capital account and "underground banks" and "money smuggling" On the basis of this, direct and indirect methods are used to estimate the inflow of short-term capital into China. The new characteristics and development trend of current short-term international capital flow are analyzed. Using the theory of the motivation of short-term capital flow, combined with the actual economic situation of China, this paper analyzes the factors that affect the short-term international capital flow of our country, such as interest rate difference and exchange rate difference. The stock market price and investor's investment confidence, among them interest rate difference and investor confidence two factors influence significantly. The correlation between other factors and short-term international capital flows is complex. This paper uses empirical modeling method to make the research more persuasive, and systematically analyzes the impact of short-term international capital flows on the Chinese economy. Finally, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on the control of short-term international capital flows, including the control of opening the capital account. The countermeasures such as the control of exchange rate and the conversion of short-term international capital into long-term capital will be of great significance to China's management of international capital flows.
【学位授予单位】：山西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.51

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