人民币汇率预期、短期国际资本流动与房价

发布时间：2018-01-13 12:02

本文关键词：人民币汇率预期、短期国际资本流动与房价　出处：《世界经济研究》2017年07期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：2015年8月,央行进行中间价形成机制改革,人民币汇率预期的波动增强,短期国际资本流动及房价随之呈现出不同的特征。文章探索了三者间的传导机制,发现人民币汇率预期升值会促进短期国际资本流入,而流入的短期国际资本对房价的影响却与汇率预期的波动强度有关。文章采用TVPSV-VAR模型对2010年7月至2016年12月的月度数据进行了实证研究,发现在两次汇改后,汇率预期波动较大,人民币汇率预期升值冲击通过短期国际资本流动更多地作用于房地产的需求端,使房价加速上涨。基于在不同汇率预期波动条件下三者的互动关系特征,文章从人民币汇率预期管理、短期国际资本的管理和引导以及综合管理机制的建立的角度提出政策建议。
[Abstract]:In August 2015, the central bank carried out the reform of the intermediate price formation mechanism, and the expected fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate increased. Short-term international capital flows and house prices show different characteristics. This paper explores the transmission mechanism between the three, and finds that the expected appreciation of RMB exchange rate will promote short-term international capital inflows. However, the impact of short-term international capital inflows on house prices is related to the expected volatility of exchange rates. This paper uses TVPSV-VAR model to analyze the monthly data from July 2010 to December 2016. Empirical research. It is found that after the two exchange rate reforms, the exchange rate is expected to fluctuate greatly, and the expected appreciation of the RMB exchange rate impacts the demand side of real estate more through short-term international capital flows. Based on the interactive characteristics of the three factors under the different exchange rate expectation fluctuation, this paper analyzes the management of RMB exchange rate expectation. The short-term international capital management and guidance as well as the establishment of integrated management mechanism to put forward policy recommendations.
【作者单位】：厦门大学经济学院;
【分类号】：F299.23;F832.6
【正文快照】： 2005年7月21日,央行宣布我国开始实行以市场供求为基础,参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度,当日人民币兑美元汇率上调2%,人民币汇率进入单边升值阶段。此轮升值持续近9年(1),截至2013年12月末,人民币兑美元汇率累计升值2.18元,年复合增长率达3.3%,累计增长率为24.

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