会计信息可比性对证券分析师预测行为的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-20 13:46

本文关键词： 会计信息可比性证券分析师盈余预测准确性盈余预测分歧度　出处：《哈尔滨商业大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：证券分析师主要从事证券研究,是证券市场中最重要的"翻译官"。其主要工作是通过对市场中大量错综复杂的信息的筛选,运用自身理论基础、实践经验等进行整合分析,其主要价值体现在其分析预测报告中针对不同信息使用者的需求公布的分析、预测、评价。证券分析师能够向市场反应证券真实价值的价格信息,进而减轻因信息不对称所带来的投资者等利益关联方的劣势,使证券市场价格趋近其真实价值,增强市场进行资源配置的有效性。由于上市公司财务信息是证券分析师开展工作利用的基础信息,而会计信息可比性是体现上市公司财务信息质量的重要标准之一,通过分别对会计信息可比性与证券分析师预测行为的计量探求两者之间的关系,期望通过实证研究发现通过提高会计信息可比性,提升证券分析师预测行为的有效性的方法和途径。首先,对国内外会计信息可比性与证券分析师预测行为的相关文献进行整理分析,以信息不对称理论、契约理论、委托代理理论和交易成本理论为基础,采取证券分析师跟随人数、盈余预测准确性、盈余预测分歧度三个指标计量证券分析师预测行为,分别分析了会计信息可比性对此三方面的影响并提出研究假设。其次,以2004至2015年1339家中国资本市场A股主板非金融保险业上市公司为研究样本,采用Basu(1997)的稳健性模型对De Franco,Kothari和Verdi(2011)提出的以计量不同公司之间会计信息可比性为目的的模型进行修正,结合Lang etal.(2010)、Yip etal.(2012)与 Brochetetal.(2013)在计量中采用的以四年16个季度为期,滚动计量会计信息可比性的方法,考察了此期间内会计信息可比性及证券分析师预测行为的变化趋势,研究了会计信息可比性对证券分析师盈余预测行为的影响。实证结果表明,证券分析师跟踪数量与会计信息可比性呈显著正相关关系,证券分析师盈余预测的分歧度在一定程度上与会计信息可比性呈显著正相关关系。这表明通过加强法制建设、完善会计准则与会计制度提升会计信息可比性来促进市场资源有效配置是可行的。
[Abstract]:Securities analysts are mainly engaged in securities research and are the most important "translators" in the securities market. Their main work is to use their own theoretical basis through the screening of a large number of complicated information in the market. Practical experience and other integrated analysis, its main value is reflected in its analysis and forecast report for the needs of different information users published analysis, prediction. Evaluation. The securities analyst can reflect the price information of the real value of the securities to the market, and then reduce the disadvantage of the related parties such as the investors brought about by the asymmetry of the information, and make the price of the securities market approach its real value. Because the financial information of listed companies is the basic information for securities analysts to carry out their work. The comparability of accounting information is one of the important standards to reflect the quality of financial information of listed companies. Through the measurement of the comparability of accounting information and the forecasting behavior of securities analysts, the relationship between them is explored. It is expected to find ways and means to improve the effectiveness of forecasting behavior of securities analysts by improving the comparability of accounting information through empirical research. First of all. Based on the information asymmetry theory, contract theory, principal-agent theory and transaction cost theory, the relevant literature on comparability of accounting information at home and abroad and the forecast behavior of securities analysts are analyzed. Stock analysts follow the number, earnings forecast accuracy, earnings forecast divergence of three indicators to measure the behavior of securities analysts. This paper analyzes the impact of comparability of accounting information on these three aspects and puts forward research hypotheses. Secondly. From 2004 to 2015, 1339 non-financial insurance companies listed on the A-share main board of China's capital market were selected as the research samples. The robust model of de Franco is used in this paper. The model proposed by Kothari and Verdi (2011) aims to measure the comparability of accounting information among different companies, combined with Lang etal.n.2010). Yip etal.b.n2012) and Brochetetal.nb2013) the method used in the measurement is to measure the comparability of accounting information over a period of four years and 16 quarters, on a rolling basis. This paper examines the trend of the comparability of accounting information and the forecasting behavior of securities analysts during this period, and studies the influence of comparability of accounting information on earnings forecasting behavior of securities analysts. The empirical results show that. There is a significant positive correlation between the number of securities analysts tracking and the comparability of accounting information. To some extent, the divergence degree of earnings forecast of securities analysts is positively correlated with the comparability of accounting information, which indicates that the construction of legal system should be strengthened. It is feasible to improve accounting standards and accounting system to promote the efficient allocation of market resources.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨商业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F275;F832.51

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