农业类上市公司资本市场表现影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-01-20 14:05

本文关键词： 农业类上市公司财务信息农业政策事件研究法　出处：《天津大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：农业类上市公司是连接资本市场和农业企业的载体,利用资本市场作为融资平台,不仅有利于解决农业类企业融资难的问题,而且亦有助于推到农业产业化的发展。因此,本文选取农业类上市公司作为研究对象,以股票价格作为其资本市场表现形式的量化指标,通过对农业板块股价波动性的影响因素进行实证研究,来分析我国农业类上市公司在资本市场的运行状况。文章通过对国内外关于上市公司股价影响因素的文献回顾,确定了研究的方向,基于此,设计了文章中的研究思路和研究方案。首先,文章对农业类上市公司资本市场表现的基本特征和现状进行分析;其次,文章重点从微观层面选取财务信息,从宏观层面选取政策性信息作为农业类上市公司资本市场表现的影响因素进行实证分析,分别采用多元回归模型和事件研究法,旨在为农业类上市公司的研究提供一定的理论依据和实践方法。本文得出主要结论如下:(1)农业类上市公司在我国资本市场中仍处于弱势地位,从我国农业类上市公司的发展现状来看,其流通市值在总流通市值中所占比例很小,农业类上市公司的经营业绩呈现两级分化,盈利能力较差;从农业类上市公司股票价格基本统计特征来看,农业板块整体上并不存在长期自相关性,并且股票价格的变动呈独立同分布特征。(2)上市公司中农业板块股票价格与会计信息之间确实存在相关性。2013年主要财务指标能够解释股票价格的比例较2012年有明显下降,仅为36.6%,其财务信息对股价的解释力度存在较大的波动性。(3)短期内2013年和2014年两年中央一号文件的发布对农业板块股票价格波动都具有积极正向的影响。对两个政策性事件影响非正常收益的显著性分析表明,2013年中央一号文件的发布使得上证指数和深证指数显著的获得非正常累计收益,然而2014年中央一号文件的发布对两者的影响在统计上不具有显著性。最后,本文在实证研究结果的基础上,指出了农业类上市公司资本市场表现影响因素的主要原因,并从监管者、投资者、上市公司自身三个层面对农业类上市公司以后的发展提供一定的建议。
[Abstract]:Agricultural listed companies are the carriers to connect the capital market and agricultural enterprises. Using the capital market as a financing platform is not only conducive to solve the financing problems of agricultural enterprises. And it is also helpful to the development of agricultural industrialization. Therefore, this paper selects agricultural listed companies as the research object, taking stock price as the quantitative index of its capital market expression. Through the empirical study on the factors affecting the volatility of agricultural stock price. This paper analyzes the operation of agricultural listed companies in the capital market. Based on the review of domestic and foreign literature on the factors affecting the stock price of listed companies, the direction of the research is determined, based on this. First of all, the paper analyzes the basic characteristics and present situation of the capital market performance of agricultural listed companies. Secondly, the article focuses on selecting financial information from the micro level, selecting policy information from the macro level as the impact factors of the capital market performance of agricultural listed companies for empirical analysis. Multivariate regression model and event study method were used respectively. The purpose of this paper is to provide some theoretical basis and practical methods for the research of agricultural listed companies. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1) Agricultural listed companies are still in a weak position in the capital market of our country. From the current situation of agricultural listed companies in China, the circulation of market value in the total circulation market value accounts for a very small proportion, agricultural listed companies show a two-level division of operating performance, poor profitability; From the basic statistical characteristics of the stock prices of agricultural listed companies, there is no long-term autocorrelation in the agricultural sector as a whole. And the change of stock price is independent of the same distribution. There is a real correlation between the stock price and accounting information in the listed companies. In 2013, the proportion of major financial indicators that can explain the stock price is significantly lower than that in 2012. Only 36.6%. The explanation of its financial information to the stock price has great volatility. In the short term, the issuance of the first document of the Central Committee on 2013 and 2014 had a positive and positive impact on the stock price volatility of the agricultural sector. A significant Analysis of the impact of two Policy events on abnormal returns. . The issuance of the first central document in 2013 makes the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index significantly obtain abnormal cumulative income. However, the impact of the release of the No. 1 document in 2014 on the two is not statistically significant. Finally, this paper based on the results of empirical research. This paper points out the main reasons of influencing factors on the capital market performance of agricultural listed companies, and provides some suggestions for the future development of agricultural listed companies from the three aspects of regulators, investors and listed companies themselves.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F324;F832.51

【相似文献】