住房公积金最高贷款额度调整及调整比例的影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-01-27 12:59

本文关键词： 住房公积金贷款额度调整羊群效应影响因素　出处：《深圳大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：贷款是住房公积金制度运行过程中的核心业务之一。住房公积金管理中心向城镇居民提供低利率贷款,以互助的形式帮助其解决住房需求问题。近些年,各地频繁修改住房公积金最高贷款额度,城镇居民的住房公积金可贷额度与最高贷款额度息息相关。最高贷款额度经常发生变化,首先,有可能直接关系到住房公积金制度的稳定性和保障性;其次,在房价持续上涨的情况下,若调整比例偏小甚至为负则对城镇居民住房条件的改善产生不利影响,从而间接影响到宏观经济的发展。那么究竟有哪些因素影响到最高贷款额度的调整呢?最高贷款额度的调整过程中是否存在羊群效应呢?如果存在羊群效应,对住房公积金制度本身有何影响?调整比例的确定是否受到羊群效应的影响呢?对这些问题的探讨显然具有重要的现实价值。本文首先回顾了住房公积金制度建立以来的发展情况,概述了国外住房保障制度的两个成功代表——新加坡中央公积金制度以及美国住房抵押贷款制度,探讨以上两个制度对住房公积金制度的启示。而后采用我国70个大中城市2007~2015年的住房公积金数据和相关经济数据,构建面板Logit模型,验证住房公积金最高贷款额度调整的影响因素;随即结合住房公积金制度背景及羊群效应理论,检验了住房公积金最高贷款额度调整的羊群效应特征及其存在的政策风险;最后构建面板多元回归模型检验羊群效应对最高贷款额度调整比例的确定是否有显著影响。研究发现:第一,住房公积金最高贷款额度不仅会根据城市房价的波动而进行调整,还受到上一年贷款发放额的影响。第二,城市住房公积金最高贷款额度调整的过程中存在明显的羊群行为,有不顾自身实际经济状况、跟风调整的嫌疑。第三,羊群效应还对最高贷款额度调整比例的确定产生显著影响,一定程度上影响了住房公积金的正常运行,并对住房公积金的稳定性和保障性以及住房金融体系的完善产生负向作用。
[Abstract]:Loan is one of the core business in the operation of housing provident fund system. Housing provident fund management center provides low interest rate loans to urban residents to help them solve the housing demand in the form of mutual aid in recent years. Various places frequently revise the housing accumulation fund maximum loan quota, urban residents housing accumulation fund can loan quota and the maximum loan quota. The maximum loan quota often changes, first of all. It may be directly related to the stability and security of the housing provident fund system; Secondly, in the case of rising house prices, if the adjustment ratio is small or even negative, it will have a negative impact on the improvement of housing conditions of urban residents. This indirectly affects macroeconomic development. So what are the factors that affect the adjustment of the maximum loan quota? Is there herding in the adjustment of the maximum loan quota? If there is herding, what is the impact on the housing provident fund system itself? Is the determination of the adjusted ratio affected by herding? The discussion of these problems obviously has important practical value. Firstly, this paper reviews the development of the housing provident fund system since its establishment. This paper summarizes two successful representatives of foreign housing security system-Singapore Central Provident Fund system and American Housing Mortgage loan system. This paper discusses the inspiration of the above two systems to the housing provident fund system, and then uses the housing accumulation fund data and related economic data of 70 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2007 to 2015. The panel Logit model is constructed to verify the influencing factors of the adjustment of the maximum loan amount of the housing provident fund. Then combined with the background of housing provident fund system and herding theory, this paper examines the herding effect characteristics and the policy risk of the adjustment of the maximum loan quota of housing provident fund. Finally, the panel multivariate regression model is constructed to test whether herding effect has a significant impact on the determination of the maximum loan quota adjustment ratio. First, the study found: 1. Housing accumulation fund maximum loans will not only be adjusted according to the fluctuations in urban housing prices, but also by the impact of loans issued last year. Second. Urban housing provident fund maximum loan quota adjustment process there is obvious herd behavior, regardless of their own actual economic situation, with the suspicion of adjustment. Third. Herd effect also has a significant impact on the determination of the maximum loan quota adjustment ratio, to a certain extent, affecting the normal operation of the housing provident fund. It has a negative effect on the stability and security of the housing accumulation fund and the perfection of the housing financial system.
【学位授予单位】：深圳大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23;F832.479

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