新疆消费信贷对消费结构影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-28 08:32

本文关键词： 新疆消费信贷消费结构消费需求　出处：《新疆财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来，如何提高消费需求是我国关注的焦点问题。提高消费需求，首先要研究消费结构是否合理，合理的消费结构有利于推动消费升级，增强新疆居民消费可持续增长。消费信贷在促进居民有效需求成长中起着重要作用，它既是国家经济发展和经济结构调整的重要手段，也有利于人民群众提高生活水平和生活质量。本文在消费函数理论、消费信贷理论的基础上提出消费结构合理的衡量标准，并阐述了消费信贷通过刺激消费需求、加快消费结构优化、转变居民消费观念三条途径推动新疆消费结构优化，建立了消费信贷影响消费结构的理论模型：LnVt LnCDt Lny t。本文选取1985年到2012年新疆消费数据，对新疆消费信贷和消费结构现状进行描述性分析，使用恩格尔系数法、结构变动度两个指标对新疆消费结构的现状进行了描述性分析，初步划分出新疆消费结构发展的三个阶段，分别是简单温饱阶段、高级生活阶段以及优化品质生活阶段。最后用chow检验证明以上阶段划分是否准确。通过对消费信贷的现状分析，得出新疆消费信贷总量不断增加，以个人住房贷款和汽车消费贷款为主。通过相关性分析以及贡献度分析得出影响新疆消费结构的主因有两个：消费信贷和居民收入。虽然目前新疆消费结构处于第三个阶段，但是还存在人均消费偏低、食品支出占比较高的问题，由于居民收入在短期内无法快速的增加，而消费信贷优化消费结构的发展空间很大，，本文选取1999年到2012年新疆消费信贷余额、居民可支配收入以及四项消费结构的数据，运用多元回归方程，验证消费信贷对消费结构优化的积极作用。基于这个结论，本文提出通过优化新疆消费信贷投放结构、提高消费信贷品种、转变消费观念、调节收入差距几个方面来促进消费信贷发展，优化消费结构的对策建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, how to improve consumption demand is the focus of our attention. To improve consumption demand, we should first study whether the consumption structure is reasonable, and a reasonable consumption structure is conducive to promoting consumption upgrading. Consumer credit plays an important role in promoting the growth of residents' effective demand. It is an important means of national economic development and economic structure adjustment. It also helps the people to improve their living standards and quality of life. Based on the consumption function theory and the consumption credit theory, this paper puts forward the reasonable measure standard of the consumption structure, and expounds the consumption credit to speed up the consumption structure optimization by stimulating the consumption demand. There are three ways to promote the optimization of consumption structure in Xinjiang, and the theoretical model of the influence of consumer credit on consumption structure is established: 1: LnVt LnCDt Lny t. This paper selects Xinjiang consumption data from 1985 to 2012 to analyze the current situation of consumption credit and consumption structure in Xinjiang and use Engel's coefficient method. Two indicators of structural change degree described the current situation of consumption structure in Xinjiang, and preliminarily divided the three stages of consumption structure development in Xinjiang, namely, the stage of simple food and clothing. Finally, the chow test is used to prove whether the above stages are accurate or not. Through the analysis of the current situation of consumer credit, it is concluded that the total amount of consumer credit in Xinjiang continues to increase. By means of correlation analysis and contribution analysis, it is concluded that there are two main reasons that affect the consumption structure of Xinjiang: consumer credit and resident income. Although the consumption structure in Xinjiang is in the third stage, but there is still a low per capita consumption, food expenditure is relatively high, because the residents' income in the short term can not increase rapidly. However, there is great room for the development of the consumption structure optimization of consumer credit. From 1999 to 2012, the data of Xinjiang consumer credit balance, resident disposable income and four items of consumption structure are selected in this paper. Based on this conclusion, this paper proposes to optimize the structure of consumption credit in Xinjiang, improve the variety of consumer credit, change consumption concept. Adjustment of income gap in several aspects to promote the development of consumer credit, optimize the consumption structure of the countermeasures.
【学位授予单位】：新疆财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.4;F126.1

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