基于市场预期的中国住房抵押贷款对房地产价格波动的影响研究

发布时间：2018-02-08 11:40

本文关键词： 市场预期住房抵押贷款房地产价格波动　出处：《湘潭大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来，伴随着房地产价格不断攀升，多地隐现房地产泡沫已是不争的事实，特别是2007年美国次贷危机的爆发敲响了警钟，房地产价格的大幅波动容易产生金融危机，这对于我国主要依赖银行信贷支持的房地产市场来说，更要注重房价预期可能对居民生活带来的冲击和对房地产行业带来的风险，以防扰乱我国金融市场和经济发展的稳健步伐。本文首先从理论上分析了市场预期下住房抵押贷款与房地产价格波动的影响，其次结合中国房地产市场和银行信贷两者联系越来越紧密的现状，从市场预期角度探讨两者之间的关系，并构建三者的理论模型，然后在实证分析中，建立30个省（市）面板数据模型对房价波动和住房抵押贷款的影响关系进行长期动态分析，从分析结果可知市场预期、住房抵押贷款与房地产价格波动三者之间存在相互影响的关系，并且房地产价格波动初期对银行信贷产生积极作用，长期则不利于银行信贷的稳定性，影响程度会随着时间的流逝而逐渐减小。最后，结合前文的分析和我国的国情，本文提出有必要从房价预期管理、银行住房抵押贷款管理和住房市场管理三个方面入手，，有效降低房价波动对我国宏观经济体系稳定性带来的不良影响。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rising of real estate prices, it is an indisputable fact that many real estate bubbles have emerged. Especially, the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2007 sounded the alarm that the large fluctuations in real estate prices are liable to produce financial crises. For the real estate market in China, which mainly relies on bank credit support, we should pay more attention to the impact that housing prices are expected to bring to residents' lives and the risks they bring to the real estate industry. To prevent the disruption of our financial markets and economic development of the steady pace. Firstly, this paper theoretically analyzes the impact of housing mortgage loan and real estate price fluctuation under market expectation, and then combines the current situation that China's real estate market and bank credit are more and more closely linked. This paper discusses the relationship between the two from the perspective of market expectation, and constructs three theoretical models. Then, in the empirical analysis, 30 provincial (municipal) panel data models are established to carry out long-term dynamic analysis on the impact of housing price fluctuations and housing mortgage loans. From the results of the analysis, we can see that the market expectation, the relationship between the housing mortgage loan and the real estate price fluctuation has the mutual influence, and the real estate price fluctuation has the positive effect on the bank credit in the early stage. The long-term is not conducive to the stability of bank credit, the impact will gradually decrease with the passage of time. Finally, combined with the previous analysis and China's national conditions, this paper proposes that it is necessary to manage the expected housing prices. The bank housing mortgage loan management and housing market management can effectively reduce the negative impact of house price fluctuation on the stability of China's macroeconomic system.
【学位授予单位】：湘潭大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.45;F299.23

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