互联网金融P2P信贷模式的特征及风险研究

发布时间：2018-02-25 19:12

本文关键词： P2P网络借贷模式风险控制博弈分析保费定价　出处：《西安电子科技大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：互联网金融是利用网络平台为客户办理转账支付、投资理财、小额信贷等传统金融业务的新型金融服务机构,是网络技术和消费需求不断发展变化的必然产物。它的出现使目前的信贷模式更加多样化、全面化,成功弥补了传统金融模式在参与度、操作性和成本等方面的不足。在其细分领域中,P2P网络借贷模式以依托互联网技术和大数据的巨大优势,无疑成为占领市场和引领互联网金融业发展的主要模式,给传统金融模式带来冲击。截止2014年6月末,P2P借贷平台数量达1263家,上半年成交额近1000亿元人民币,接近2013年全年成交金额。P2P网络借贷行业各项指标呈现井喷式增长。然而,2011年以来,陆续有57家P2P网贷平台倒闭或出现逾期提现问题。不可否认,正是由于P2P借贷模式的优势和特殊性,给它带来了一定的风险,其中以资金安全风险和违约风险较为突出。因此,本文针对P2P模式的风险研究提出了可行的防范措施,弥补了我国在网络借贷风险防范定量研究方面的缺失,为P2P平台在防范风险、丰富网络大数据资源、汲取传统金融模式在业务服务和信用体系建设等方面的优势以及探索可持续的共赢金融服务模式方面提供了新思路。首先,通过详细对比分析新型网络借贷模式与传统信贷模式的特征优劣势,对我国网络借贷模式面临的各种风险进行了识别。其次,在现有P2P平台风险防范措施存在不足之处的基础上,从政府环境、平台运营和纳入新主体-保险的角度提出了具体的风险防范方法。在平台方面,运用二元logistic回归分析出信用等级变量对于是否逾期具有较强相关性,进而通过有序Probit回归模型得出公司行业、年龄、收入、公司规模和工作时间变量对信用等级的影响程度较大,给出平台方面完善信用评级体系防范逾期风险的关注重点。其中,本文率先提出将“保险”纳入P2P网贷模式的风险防范新思路,并通过对新旧平台的博弈分析、基于预期损失定价模型的保费测算和三方期望利润的蒙特卡洛模拟进行违约风险计量的实证研究,得到不同的信用等级用户对应的保费费率区间。分析表明,纳入保险后的借贷平台可以更好地降低信息不对称情况下的道德风险,用户、平台和保险机构也会获得更高的期望利润。证明了三方共同参与的P2P平台是一个互利共赢、有效防范风险、趋向于帕累托最优的网络借贷模式,具有一定的理论和实践意义。
[Abstract]:The Internet is a network platform for financial transfer payment for the customer, finance and investment, new financial service institutions of traditional financial business microfinance, is the inevitable product of network technology and consumer demand changing. It appears that the current credit mode is more diverse, comprehensive, make up the traditional financial model in and lack of operability and cost. In its segments, P2P lending patterns to relying on the great advantages of Internet technology and big data, will undoubtedly become the main mode of occupation of the market and lead the Internet financial industry development, the impact of the traditional financial model. As of 2014 6 at the end of 1263, the number of P2P lending platform home, the first half of the turnover of nearly 100 billion yuan, close to the 2013 annual turnover indicators of the amount of.P2P networks lending industry showing growth spurt. However, on 2011 To have a 57 P2P net loan platform collapse or overdue cash problems. Admittedly, it is due to the P2P lending mode advantage and particularity, bring certain risks to it, the liquidity risk and default risk is more prominent. Therefore, the risk research for P2P model is proposed the feasible preventive measures, to make up for the deficiency in China in the quantitative research on the risks of network lending, P2P platform in risk prevention, the rich network of large data resources, provides a new way to learn the advantages of the traditional financial model in the aspect of business services and credit system construction and explore win-win financial services model first sustainable. Through the comparative analysis, with the new network lending model and traditional credit model features advantages and disadvantages of various risks facing the network lending model in China were identified. Secondly, the existing P2P flat Taiwan based risk prevention measures shortcomings, from the government environment, platform operators and incorporated into the new subject insurance puts forward specific risk prevention methods. In the platform, the use of two yuan of logistic regression analysis showed the credit rating variable has a strong correlation for overdue, and then through the ordered Probit regression model that the company industry, age, income, influence the company scale and work time variables on the credit rating of the larger, improve the focus of the credit rating system to prevent overdue risk given platform. Among them, the paper first proposed the "insurance" into the new idea of risk P2P net loan model, and through the game of the new platform analysis, empirical research the default risk measurement of the Monte Carlo simulation calculation of the expected loss premium pricing model and three party based on the expected profit, get different credit The user level corresponding to the premium rate interval. The results show that, after the insurance into lending platform can better reduce the moral hazard under asymmetric information of users, platforms and insurance institutions will get a higher expected profit. It is proved that P2P participated in the three party platform is a win-win situation, effective risk prevention, network borrowing mode tends to be Pareto optimal, has certain theoretical and practical significance.

【学位授予单位】：西安电子科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F724.6;F832.4

【相似文献】