基于财务指标与非财务指标的退市风险预警研究

发布时间：2018-02-27 07:49

本文关键词： 财务困境退市制度财务指标非财务指标　出处：《河北大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：新一轮的国际金融危机的阴影并没完全褪去，2013年中国优秀的企业的数量正在减少，更不容乐观的是面临巨大风险的企业数量却在加大。鉴于我国正在实行更加严苛的上市制度，可以预见我国将要退市的上市公司的数量也会越来越多，能提前对退市公司进行财务预警于广大利益相关者来说无疑具有重大意义。以往国内的公司财务困境预警研究主要基于财务指标，以ST作为公司陷入财务困境的界限来预测企业的财务状况。然而，仅仅以财务指标分析企业财务困境的原因并不全面和深入，为了避免此缺陷，，本文将非财务指标引入财务困境预警体系。以ST作为公司陷入财务困境的标准有一定的可取性，但是与国外的以破产作为公司陷入财务困境的标准还具有很大的差异，ST公司并不一定会破产。本文将公司退市作为深层次的财务困境界限，探讨上市公司退市财务风险预警。通过借鉴前人的研究成果，本文利用实证研究的方法对我国上市公司退市风险进行预测研究，期望对我国上市公司退市风险预警研究提供参考价值。本文以退市的33家制造业上市公司和与之配对的未退市公司为研究样本，选取了30个财务指标和7个非财务指标，运用非参数检验、相关性检验等分析方法，最终确定公司退市前5年到2年预警模型选取的指标。本文采用Logistic回归方法，根据不同期间和指标，建立了8个模型，包括基于财务指标的财务模型和财务指标与非财务指标结合的综合模型。最后对比分析了这几种模型的有效性。研究结果显示，财务指标和非财务指标对上市公司是否退市都具有重要影响，引入非财务指标能增加预警模型的预测能力。同时可以看出，退市公司和未退市公司之间表现出了一定差异性，可以通过退市风险预警模型来补充我国的退市制度。
[Abstract]:The shadow of the new round of international financial crisis has not completely faded. The number of outstanding enterprises in China is decreasing in 2013. What is more, the number of enterprises facing enormous risks is increasing. Given that China is implementing a more stringent listing system, It can be predicted that the number of listed companies will be more and more, and it is undoubtedly of great significance for the majority of stakeholders to be able to advance the financial early warning of delisting companies. In the past, the financial distress early warning research in China was mainly based on financial indicators, and St was used as the limit of financial distress to predict the financial situation of enterprises. In order to avoid this defect, this paper introduces non-financial indicators into the financial distress warning system. It is desirable to take St as the standard of financial distress. However, there is still a great difference from the foreign standard of taking bankruptcy as the standard of financial distress. St companies are not bound to go bankrupt. In this paper, the delisting of the company is regarded as a deep financial distress boundary. This paper discusses the early warning of financial risk of delisting of listed companies. By referring to the previous research results, this paper uses the method of empirical research to predict the risks of delisting of listed companies in China. It is expected to provide reference value for the study of delisting risk early warning of listed companies in China. Based on 33 listed manufacturing companies and matched undelisted companies, 30 financial indexes and 7 non-financial indexes were selected, and non-parametric test and correlation test were used in this paper. In this paper, Logistic regression method is used to establish 8 models according to different periods and indicators. It includes the financial model based on financial index and the comprehensive model combining financial index and non-financial index. Finally, the validity of these models is compared and analyzed. The results show that both financial indicators and non-financial indicators have an important impact on the delisting of listed companies, and the introduction of non-financial indicators can increase the forecasting ability of the early warning model. There are some differences between delisting companies and non-delisting companies, and the delisting system can be supplemented by delisting risk warning model.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.51;F275

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