地方政府融资平台银行信贷风险影响因素的实证研究

发布时间：2018-02-28 14:03

本文关键词： 地方政府融资平台银行信贷风险主成分分析 logistic回归　出处：《西南财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,地方政府融资平台在抵御危机、基础设施建设、升级产业机构等方面发挥了重大的作用,正是因为融资平台公司的重要作用,融资平台公司的债务规模也迎来了爆发性的增长,截止到2013年6月底,地方政府负有偿还责任的债务10.89万亿元,其中银行信贷占比超过50%。管理不成熟和不规范等原因使得地方政府融资平台公司在高速发展的同时积累了巨大信贷风险,而银行信贷风险对宏观经济的影响众所周知,因此平台公司的信贷风险应当引起银行方、政府方、监管方的重视和关注。本文就政府融资平台信贷风险影响因素进行了研究,构建起了平台公司银行信贷风控指标体系,并建立了指标体系中指标与违约的logit模型,达到了基于一家平台公司一笔贷款的银行信贷风控指标体系的指标数值来预测其违约发生可能性的目的,为监管提供了重要帮助。本文首先阐述了研究背景,说明了研究的重要性,对当前国内相关的研究现状进行综述,梳理了现有研究的进展和不足,发现当前探究中由于数据的缺乏定性理论研究较多,但定量研究较少,在众多理论研究中关于平台公司发展历程和信贷风险影响因素的研究也并不全面,且为数不多的定量研究中信贷风险影响因素多局限于财务指标,本文以此为继续研究的起点提出研究目的,分析其理论和现实意义。并提出研究的内容、思路和方法,叙述本文的创新点和可能的不足。然后本文进行了平台公司和平台公司信贷风险影响因素的理论分析,这里分为两个部分,第一部分对平台公司进行了理论分析,首先从对融资平台的概念和分类、产生和发展的过程进行研究,认识到融资平台公司相对于一般企业功能、地位、属性的特殊性,又据当前平台公司信贷发展的现状对平台公司信贷所呈现出的特点进行了说明,阐明研究平台公司银行信贷风险的重要性。第二部分对平台公司信贷风险影响因素进行了理论分析,首先介绍了银行信贷风险的概念,梳理一般企业信贷风险的影响因素,又针对当下平台公司所蕴含的特殊风险来源,并结合上文中关于平台公司特殊性的介绍,分别从财务角度和平台公司自身属性的角度分析了影响平台公司银行信贷风险的因素,如财政收入、平台级别、公司治理情况等。再以某省平台公司信贷风险发展的现状展开实证研究。在实证研究中,首先对当前某省平台公司信贷发展现状进行描述统计分析,又结合上文对影响平台公司银行信贷风险因素的理论分析,选定13个可能影响违约的风险指标,如平台级别、平台风险属性、贷款余额、贷款银行数等。后通过相关性分析进行指标的初步筛选,得到财政收入、公司治理结构健全与否、平台公司风险属性等八个指标,又通过主成分分析的方法进行降维处理得到四个风险综合指标,分别是公司企业化指标,直接还款能力指标,间接还款能力指标,债务结构合理性指标。最后建立这些风险综合指标与违约发生的logistic回归模型,得到各原始风险指标与违约发生与否的量化关系,发现公司法人治理结构的健全与否是影响其信贷风险的最重要的因素,其次代表直接还款能力的预计还款来源和风险属性,再其次是代表间接还款能力的财政收入等,从而达到了利用平台公司财务和性质属性预测一家平台公司的一笔贷款是否会发生违约的目的。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the local government financing platform to resist the crisis, infrastructure construction, has played a major role in the upgrading of the industrial institutions, it is because of the important role of the financing platform company, the scale of corporate debt financing platform also ushered in the explosive growth, by the end of June 2013, the local government bears the responsibility to repay the debt of 10 trillion and 890 billion yuan. The bank credit accounted for more than 50%. management is not mature and not standard causes the local government financing platform company has accumulated huge credit risk in a time of rapid development, and the impact of bank credit risk on the macro economy as everyone knows, so the platform for the company's credit risk should be caused by the bank, the government, regulators and attention. This paper makes a study of the influence factors of government financing platform credit risk, build the platform of bank credit risk control index system, and establish The logit model of index and default in index system has achieved the purpose of predicting the possibility of default based on the index value of bank credit control index system based on a loan of a platform company, which has provided important help for supervision.
This paper first describes the research background, indicating the importance of the study, the relevant research at home and abroad are reviewed, combing the existing research progress and shortcomings, the current research found that due to the lack of data qualitative theory research more, but the quantitative research, in many theoretical studies on the influence factors on the development process and credit risk of the company's platform is not comprehensive, and the factors for the few quantitative studies of credit risk influence is limited to financial indicators, this paper puts forward the purpose of the study is to research the starting point, analysis of its theoretical and practical significance. And put forward the research contents, ideas and methods, the innovation of this paper and the possible problems. Then it analyzes the credit risk of the company's platform and platform influence factors of the theory in this paper, it is divided into two parts, the first part of the platform company The theoretical analysis, first from the concept and classification of the financing platform for research, production and development process, realize the financing platform company general business function, relative to the position of special attributes, and according to the characteristics of the current situation of the development of company credit platform to platform company credit presents are described, and clarifies the importance of credit the risk of bank platform company is analyzed. The second part of the credit risk of the company's platform, first introduced the concept of bank credit risk, the general effect of combing enterprise credit risk factors, special risk source according to the current platform company contains, and combined with the introduction of special platform above, respectively. From the perspective of Finance and platform for the company itself and analyzes the influencing factors of credit risk platform company bank, such as revenue, platform level, The situation of corporate governance. The status of a platform company credit risk empirical research.
In the empirical study, descriptive statistical analysis, the current status of the development of a platform for corporate credit, and combined with the analysis of above theory influence banking platform company credit risk factors, selected 13 may affect the risk of default indicators, such as the platform level, platform risk property, loans, loan bank number. After the correlation analysis preliminary screening of indicators, get financial income, perfect corporate governance structure and whether the platform company risk attribute eight indexes and method by principal component analysis to reduce the dimension four risk index, respectively is the corporate index, direct repayment ability index, indirect index index of debt repayment ability, rationality finally, set up a comprehensive index structure. These risk and default logistic regression model, the original risk index and the default quantization occurs or not The relationship between the corporate governance structure, that is sound or not is the most important factor affecting the credit risk, then direct repayment ability of the expected source of repayment and risk attribute, then indirectly the repayment ability of the fiscal revenue, so as to use the platform of corporate finance and property prediction is a platform company a loan will default.

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.4

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