商业体量预测方法的应用研究

发布时间：2018-03-03 14:22

本文选题：商业地产　切入点：商业体量　出处：《武汉理工大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文简要分析了我国商业地产现状以及出现的问题等，指出符合与开发地块及周边区域匹配的商业体量的重要性。在梳理国内外商业地产研究成果的基础上，基于消费者理论、商圈理论等基础理论，论文结合商业地产的特征，从宏观角度出发，以测算商业体量的步骤为方向，以项目本身为分界，，依次从外部和内部两个角度来分析影响商业体量的因素。本文采用理论研究与实证分析相结合的方法，具体内容分为以下两部分：第一部分着重于预测商业体量理论的经典理论研究，主要涵盖雷利法则、康帕斯断点公式、赫夫概率模型、饱和理论等，分析其应用条件及局限性，创新性的将各方法结合起来，提出预测商业体量的方法：考虑影响因素获取基础数据→运用雷利法则、康帕斯断点公式预测商圈范围→根据消费者需求暂定业态→运用赫夫概率模型预测消费者人流量→运用饱和理论分析竞争情况和市场饱和度→确定商业体量。第二部分主要对郑州市中州大道与商都路交叉口白庄街以北某一地块进行实证研究，将商业体量预测方法流程用于预测此地块用于商业地产时的适宜体量，验证其实用性，并对计算结果进行分析，使整个预测方法更具有实际运用价值。最后，文章在实证研究的基础上提出了相应的结论并提出一定的建议。
[Abstract]:This paper briefly analyzes the present situation and problems of commercial real estate in China, and points out the importance of commercial volume matching with the development plots and the surrounding areas. Based on the research results of commercial real estate at home and abroad, based on the consumer theory, The basic theories, such as the commercial circle theory, combine the characteristics of the commercial real estate, from the macro point of view, take the steps of calculating the commercial volume as the direction, and take the project itself as the boundary. The factors that affect the volume of business are analyzed from the external and internal perspectives in turn. This paper uses the method of combining theoretical research and empirical analysis, the specific content is divided into the following two parts:. The first part focuses on the classical theory of predicting commercial volume theory, including Rayleigh's rule, Compasian breakpoint formula, Herbert probability model, saturation theory and so on, and analyzes its application conditions and limitations. Innovative combination of methods to propose a method for predicting business volume: taking into account factors to obtain basic data. 鈫扷sing Rayleigh's Rule and Compasian breakpoint Formula to predict the area of Commercial Circle. 鈫扨rovisional format based on consumer demand. 鈫扚orecasting the flow of consumers by using the Herbert probability Model. 鈫扐nalysis of Competition and Market saturation using saturation Theory. 鈫扗etermine the volume of business. The second part mainly carries on the empirical research to a plot north of Baizhuang Street, the intersection of Zhongzhou Avenue and Shangdu Road in Zhengzhou City. The commercial volume forecasting method is used to predict the suitable volume of the plot when it is used in commercial real estate, and the practicability is verified. The calculation results are analyzed, so that the whole prediction method has practical application value. Finally, on the basis of empirical research, the paper puts forward the corresponding conclusions and some suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

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