租赁利率与黄金市场关系问题研究

发布时间：2018-03-03 18:09

本文选题：黄金租赁利率　切入点：黄金互换利率　出处：《复旦大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：黄金租赁利率度量了黄金的生息能力,也即持有黄金的机会成本。本文从黄金租赁利率的角度对黄金市场相关变量进行观察,对其中的影响机制进行理论和实证上的分析。文章首先对黄金供需基本面的几大因素及其与金价的关系进行了梳理,接着对黄金租赁利率做了走势回顾和分析,最后通过实证分析进行检验,得出结论认为黄金租赁利率与矿产金供给和投资性需求的关系符合理论假设,而其与金价的关系也通过了协整性检验,同时格兰杰因果检验显示两者互为因果关系。最后使用最新数据证明了黄金租赁利率能够体现实际利率水平。黄金租赁市场在西方成熟资本市场中扮演着重要的角色,而当前我国黄金租赁市场仍存在各种不足,文章在最后提出了相关的意见和建议。
[Abstract]:The gold lease rate measures the interest earning ability of gold, that is, the opportunity cost of holding gold. The paper firstly analyzes several factors of gold supply and demand fundamentals and their relationship with gold price, and then reviews and analyzes the trend of gold lease interest rate. Finally, through empirical analysis, we conclude that the relationship between gold rental interest rate and mineral gold supply and investment demand accords with the theoretical hypothesis, and the relationship between gold and gold price has passed the cointegration test. At the same time, Granger causality test shows that the two are causality. Finally, using the latest data to prove that the gold lease rate can reflect the level of real interest rate, the gold rental market plays an important role in the mature capital markets in the West. However, there are still some shortcomings in the current gold leasing market in China. At the end of this paper, some suggestions and suggestions are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F831.54

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