我国制造业和采矿业上市僵尸企业预警研究

发布时间：2018-03-06 01:17

本文选题：僵尸企业　切入点：财务预警　出处：《上海师范大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：僵尸企业的存在扰乱了正常的市场秩序,造成社会资源的无端耗费,且易触发系统性的金融风险。因而,关于僵尸企业的预警研究对于新常态下推动经济发展质量的提升,有着极大的现实意义。本文以沪深两市制造业与采矿业两个产能过剩重灾区板块的个股样本作为研究对象,在广泛文献研究的基础上,以“在t年度首次被FN-CHK识别为僵尸企业,且至少持续至t+1年”作为识别方案,通过显著性检验、主成分分析、数据清洗、数据归一化等多种预处理手段建立基于合并年报财务比率的预警体系,利用二分类Logistic回归模型和BP神经网络模型进行实证研究,对模型进行了合理的解释,并分别从企业自身与监管层面给出了相关政策建议。研究结果发现,采用所构建模型均具备良好的预警能力。同时,由于企业经营效益的发展演化是一个渐进累积的过程,相较于以Logistic回归为代表传统的线性、结构化的预警方法,BP神经网络更能做出充分的反馈,对于僵尸企业的预警具有积极的意义和价值。盈利能力和创现能力在对僵尸企业的预警中起着关键的作用,具体地,每股收益和总资产报酬率、净利润(同比增长率)和经营活动产生的现金流量净额(同比增长率)是影响企业是否被判定为僵尸企业的最重要因素。
[Abstract]:The existence of zombie enterprises disturbs the normal market order, causes unprovoked consumption of social resources, and easily triggers systemic financial risks. Therefore, the early warning research on zombie enterprises promotes the quality of economic development in the new normal. It is of great practical significance. This paper takes the individual stock samples of the manufacturing and mining industries in the heavy disaster areas of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange as the research objects, and takes "FN-CHK as a zombie enterprise for the first time in t year," on the basis of extensive literature research. And at least one year "as the identification scheme, through the significance test, principal component analysis, data cleaning, data normalization and other pre-processing methods to establish an early warning system based on the combined annual financial ratio. Using the two-classification Logistic regression model and BP neural network model to carry on the empirical research, has carried on the reasonable explanation to the model, and separately has given the related policy suggestion from the enterprise itself and the supervision level. At the same time, since the development and evolution of enterprise operating benefits is a gradual cumulative process, compared with Logistic regression as the representative of the traditional linear, The structured early warning method, BP neural network, can make sufficient feedback and has positive significance and value for the early warning of zombie enterprises. Profitability and creation ability play a key role in the early warning of zombie enterprises. Earnings per share and total return on assets, net profit (year-on-year growth rate) and net cash flow generated by operating activities (year-on-year growth rate) are the most important factors affecting whether a company is judged to be a zombie.
【学位授予单位】：上海师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F424;F426.1;F832.51

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