我国资本项目开放程度及其风险的测度研究

发布时间：2018-03-07 16:21

本文选题：资本项目　切入点：开放测度　出处：《华东师范大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国自加入WTO以来,经济、金融发展迅速,融入全球化的步伐不断加快,2010年,我国国内生产总值(GDP)超过日本,成为名副其实的世界第二大经济体。随着我国经济持续稳定增长、人民币币值保持基本稳定、汇改政策的不断深化,人民币作为结算交易媒介、支付手段和储藏手段,不仅在我国周边国家和地区显示出强劲的影响力,而且在国际上的影响面也在不断扩大,人民币国际化正悄然而行。资本项目的开放会促进人民币的境外持有和流通,扩大供给,对人民币的国际化起到促进作用。但是,受2008年全球金融危机影响,全球主要经济体普遍实行量化宽松,美元、欧元、日元等主要国际货币争相贬值,人民币却表现强势,持续升值,在这样的背景下,我国的资本账户管制一旦放开,面对资本大规模的汹涌流入,我国的资本市场和金融体系必将遭受严重冲击。前车之鉴,后世之师,日本、俄罗斯、巴西和印度四国都在此问题上提供足够经验教训,面对变幻莫测的国际金融动荡,丧失资本管制屏障的国家在资本大规模外逃时表现无力,而引发的一系列金融问题持续发酵,对这些国家的实体经济产生至今都未完全消除的负面影响,因此,有关一国资本项目的管制与开放一直是经济学界讨论的重点,本文以此为研究对象,分析了资本项目开放的收益和风险,构建货币危机预警模型的重要性和方法,试图对资本项目开放这一涉及我国经济健康运行和金融稳定的热点问题,提出具有实质意义的风险防范措施和具体推进策略。本文研究的思路如下：导论→资本项目开放的理论综述→资本项目开放的测度研究→资本项目开放的风险分析→我国资本项目扩大开放的总体策略。具体为：第一部分是导论,主要概括阐述了资本项目开放相关研究的国外内成果,并给出了本文的分析思路。第二部分是全文的理论基础,给出了对资本账户开放与货币危机的概念界定,并对资本项目开放的经济效应展开包括收益和风险两个方面的理论分析。第三部分在分析我国资本账户开放历史发展和现状的基础上,测算了我国目前的资本账户开放的程度。第四部分以我国2006-2011年六年的内外经济数据为研究对象,运用KLR信号法的第一个复合指标对我国资本账户开放的危险程度进行测算,建立我国的货币危机预警指标体系。第五部分从制约因素为切入点提出我国资本项目进一步扩大的重点和政策政策。本文运用开放式和约束式两种方法对我国的资本项目开放程度进行测算,得出我国的资本项目开放目前处于中等开放水平、并且在曲折中不断加快开放的结论。以我国2006年到2011年的十个经济数据为指标建立风险预警模型,测算出我国的资本项目开放目前处于基本安全、但需警惕的警戒级区域。对于处于经济全球化进程中的我国来说,开放资本账户已是大势所趋。为此,基于上述分析结果,从分析制约我国进一步开放的因素开始,以解除制约因素为着手点,提出了我国资本项目扩大开放的推进策略,并对构建我国的安全金融网络提出了自己的看法,以期对我国的实际资本项目开放推进有所助益。
[Abstract]:Our country since joining the WTO, the economy, the rapid development of financial globalization, accelerating the pace of 2010, China's gross domestic product (GDP) surpassed Japan to become the world's second largest economy. Worthy of the name as China's steady economic growth, the value of the Renminbi remained stable, deepening the reform policy, the RMB as a medium of exchange settlement, payment means and storage means, not only show strong influence in China's neighboring countries and regions, and the impact on the international plane is also expanding, RMB internationalization is quietly. The opening of the capital will promote the RMB offshore holding and circulation, the expansion of supply, to promote the RMB the internationalization. However, by 2008, the global financial crisis, the world's major economies generally implemented quantitative easing, the dollar, euro, yen and other major international currencies competing The devaluation of RMB, but the strong performance, the continued appreciation, in this context, China's capital account controls once open, facing massive capital inflows surging, China's capital market and the financial system will suffer serious impact. Past, future generations of division, Japan, Russia, Brazil and India, are provided on this issue enough experience, in the face of the international financial turmoil change unpredictably, the loss of capital control barrier state in the large-scale capital flight performance weakness, a series of financial problems caused by continuous fermentation, have a negative impact, has not been completely eliminated for these countries in the real economy, therefore, the relevant control and opening of capital projects has been the focus of discussion in economic field, this paper as the research object, analyzes the benefits and risks of capital account liberalization, the importance of establishing the early warning model of currency crisis And methods, trying to put forward substantive risk prevention measures and specific strategies for opening capital account, which is a hot issue involving China's healthy economic operation and financial stability.
The research ideas of this paper are as follows: introduction to the theoretical review of capital account liberalization, the measurement of capital account openness, the risk analysis of capital account opening, and the overall strategy of China's capital account expansion and opening up.
The first part is the introduction, mainly summed up the achievements in foreign capital account opening related research, and gives the basic idea of this paper. The second part is the theoretical basis of the thesis, gives the concept of capital account liberalization and currency crisis definition, and on capital project economic effect on expansion including two aspects of income and the risk theory. The third part based on the analysis of the historical development and current situation of China's capital account opening, estimates China's current capital account openness. The fourth part of our 2006-2011 years six years of domestic economic data as the research object, the degree of risk of China's capital account opening the first composite index using KLR signal to measure, a currency crisis early warning index system of our country. The fifth part from the factors as the starting point of China's capital projects to further expand the Focus and policy policy.
This paper uses open and constrained two methods to the extent of China's capital account liberalization estimates, that China's capital account liberalization is currently at a medium level of opening up, and constantly open up the conclusion in twists and turns. In China from 2006 to ten 2011 economic data to establish risk early-warning model for index, calculate China's capital account opening is currently in the basic security alert level region but need to be wary of. For our country in the process of economic globalization, capital account liberalization is represent the general trend. Therefore, based on the above analysis, from the analysis of factors restricting China's further opening up, start to lift the restriction factors as a starting point, put forward China's capital projects to expand the opening up strategy, and put forward their views on the financial security network construction in our country, in order to put open capital account on China's actual It's helpful to get in.

【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.51

【参考文献】