存款利率市场化对中国实体经济的作用机制和预期效用分析

发布时间：2018-03-14 15:24

本文选题：存款利率市场化　切入点：存款利率　出处：《复旦大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文主要研究存款利率市场化对中国实体经济的作用机制和预期效应分析。自1993年我国政府正式提出利率市场化改革的基本设想以来,利率改革得以稳步推进,如今已经步入改革的深水区,只有存款利率市场化这一步有待完成。作为市场经济的一个重要变量,利率对实体经济既是一个重要的价格参考,也影响着实体经济的多个因素。本文在参考了一系列利率市场化研究后,对存款利率市场化进行研究,主要考察存款利率市场化对国内实体经济的作用机制以及效用分析。在导论和文献综述后,本文于第三章先对1993年以来我国利率改革进程的各项政策与数据做了简要的梳理和分析；到第四章,阐述了存款利率市场化对实体经济的作用机制：在中短期,存款利率的市场化会通过信贷市场影响到实体经济。根据IS-LM模型,投资、消费会减少,储蓄上升。在长期,本文运用麦金农-肖的金融自由论,阐明存款利率市场化在长期是通过成熟的利率形成机制对实体经济产生积极的作用,并与实体经济互相影响,但这些必须建立在金融市场自由化的前提下。第五章,本文进一步对存款利率市场化的作用进行分析,主要是分析存款利率市场化对实体经济储蓄、投资、消费等因素的影响。本文通过对已实现利率市场化的日本存款利率市场化前后的实体经济数据做格兰杰因果检验,发现：日本的存款利率与实体经济的储蓄、投资、消费、GDP存在长期均衡的线性关系。存款利率的变动是造成日本GDP变动的原因,存款利率市场化对日本实体经济确实造成了影响,减缓了实体经济的发展。接着结合中国的实际分析国内利率市场化的可能效应。综合以上的研究结果,本文最后给出的政策分析是,在短期,存款利率的放开会给实体经济带来一定程度的冲击,但是,长期来看,存款利率市场化会对实体经济产生积极作用。政府近一年加快了利率市场化的进程,但要注意推进过程中对实体经济的风险控制。另一方面,也要不断放开对利率市场、金融市场各个方面的限制,但要加强对金融机构的监督管理。
[Abstract]:This paper mainly studies the mechanism and expected effect of the marketization of deposit interest rate on the real economy of China. Since 1993, the Chinese government formally put forward the basic assumption of the market-oriented interest rate reform, the interest rate reform has been promoted steadily. Now that we have entered the deep water area of reform, only the step of marketization of deposit interest rates has yet to be completed. As an important variable in the market economy, interest rates are an important price reference for the real economy. It also affects many factors of the real economy. After referring to a series of research on marketization of interest rate, this paper studies the marketization of deposit interest rate. This paper mainly studies the mechanism and utility analysis of the marketization of deposit interest rate on the domestic real economy. In the third chapter, the author makes a brief analysis of the policies and data of the interest rate reform process since 1993, and in chapter 4th, expounds the mechanism of the marketization of deposit interest rate on the real economy: in the short and medium term, The marketization of deposit interest rates will affect the real economy through the credit market. According to the IS-LM model, investment, consumption will decrease, savings will rise. In the long run, this paper applies McKinnon-Shaw 's theory of financial freedom. It is explained that the marketization of deposit interest rate in the long run is a positive effect on the real economy through the mature interest rate forming mechanism, and it affects each other with the real economy, but these must be established on the premise of financial market liberalization. Chapter 5th, This paper further analyzes the role of the marketization of deposit interest rates, mainly to analyze the impact of the marketization of deposit interest rates on savings and investment in the real economy. This paper makes a Granger causality test on the real economy data before and after the marketization of Japanese deposit interest rate, and finds out that the deposit interest rate in Japan and the savings and investment in the real economy. The change of deposit interest rate is the reason for the change of GDP in Japan, and the marketization of deposit interest rate does have an impact on the real economy of Japan. It slows down the development of the real economy. Then it analyzes the possible effect of domestic interest rate marketization combined with the actual situation in China. Synthesizing the above research results, the policy analysis given in this paper is: in the short term, The liberalization of deposit interest rates will have a certain impact on the real economy. However, in the long run, the marketization of deposit interest rates will have a positive effect on the real economy. The government has accelerated the process of interest rate liberalization in the past year. On the other hand, it is necessary to liberalize the restrictions on interest rate market and financial market, but also to strengthen the supervision and management of financial institutions.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124;F832.5

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