我国商业银行信贷投向的绩效研究

发布时间：2018-03-17 08:30

本文选题：信贷投向结构　切入点：行业集中　出处：《西北大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：目前,化解产能过剩是我国经济活动的一大目标。商业银行的信贷呈现出“亲政策”趋势,不断向热门地区、热门行业集聚。信贷投向过度集中,一方面可能影响银行的微观绩效,另一方面也会影响实体经济的发展。本文将商业银行信贷投放的微观绩效和宏观绩效统一在一个研究框架中,拟从制造业产能过剩视角探讨商业银行信贷集中对微观绩效和宏观绩效的双重影响,为商业银行信贷投放的调整提供一定的参考。本文围绕“我国商业银行的信贷投向趋势是否兼顾了微观绩效和宏观绩效”这一问题展开研究。文章在对银行信贷投向相关研究进行归纳、总结的基础上,以预期理论、比较优势理论、羊群效应等分析了信贷投向集中的成因;并结合资产组合理论阐释了信贷集中对银行微观绩效的作用机制;同时分析了贷款合成谬误的形成机制。接着,文章对我国商业银行信贷的行业分布、地区分布、客户分布现状做了细致说明。在此基础上,文章以2000-2015年29家国内商业银行的年度财务数据为样本,建立面板固定效应模型实证分析了个体商业银行的信贷客户结构、行业结构、地区结构对不良贷款率这一微观绩效的影响;然后以制造业中28个细分行业为研究样本,建立DEA-Tobit模型实证分析了国内银行贷款对行业产能利用程度这一宏观绩效的影响。研究表明:信贷客户结构越集中,银行不良贷款率越高;信贷行业集中度与银行不良率呈U型关系,当前我国的信贷行业分布位于U型曲线拐点的左侧,信贷行业分布越集中,个体银行的微观风险越低;国内贷款供给过多是制造业产能过剩的重要诱因。结合以上结论,本文认为我国商业银行的信贷行业投放存在一定的合成谬误。我国银行的信贷行业集中虽然提高了微观绩效,但却在一定程度上忽视了行业产能利用的宏观绩效。因此,本文提出了建立贷款行业风险评价体系、健全公司治理、统一信息披露、完善总量信息、加强监管交流等政策建议。
[Abstract]:At present, reducing overcapacity is a major objective of economic activities in our country. The credit of commercial banks shows a "pro-policy" trend, constantly gathering in hot areas, hot industries, and excessive concentration of credit. On the one hand, it may affect the micro-performance of banks, on the other hand, it will also affect the development of the real economy. From the perspective of manufacturing overcapacity, this paper intends to explore the dual impact of commercial bank credit concentration on micro performance and macro performance. This paper focuses on the question of whether the trend of credit investment of commercial banks in China takes into account both micro performance and macro performance. To sum up the relevant research, On the basis of summing up, this paper analyzes the causes of credit concentration with expectation theory, comparative advantage theory and herding effect, and explains the mechanism of credit concentration on bank's micro performance with the combination of asset combination theory. At the same time, the forming mechanism of loan synthesis fallacy is analyzed. Then, the paper gives a detailed description of the industry distribution, regional distribution and customer distribution of commercial bank credit in China. Based on the annual financial data of 29 domestic commercial banks from 2000 to 2015, this paper establishes a panel fixed effect model to empirically analyze the credit customer structure and industry structure of individual commercial banks. The influence of regional structure on the performance of non-performing loan ratio (NPLR); then taking 28 subsectors of manufacturing industry as a sample, DEA-Tobit model is established to empirically analyze the effect of domestic bank loans on the macro performance of industry capacity utilization. The research shows that the more concentrated the structure of credit customers, the higher the non-performing loan ratio of banks; There is a U-type relationship between credit industry concentration and bank failure rate. At present, the distribution of credit industry in China lies on the left of the inflection point of U-shaped curve. The more concentrated the credit industry is, the lower the micro risk of individual bank is. Too much domestic loan supply is an important cause of overcapacity in manufacturing industry. In combination with the above conclusions, this paper concludes that there is a certain synthetic fallacy in the credit industry of commercial banks in China. However, to some extent, the macro performance of industry capacity utilization is ignored. Therefore, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions, such as establishing risk evaluation system of loan industry, perfecting corporate governance, unifying information disclosure, perfecting aggregate information, and strengthening supervision and communication.
【学位授予单位】：西北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.4;F830.42

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