在风险投资中对创始人基于模糊层次分析法的投资决策分析

发布时间：2018-03-18 14:24

本文选题：风险投资　切入点：创始人　出处：《西南大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：风险投资在当今的社会经济发展中发挥着举足轻重的作用,不仅能帮助中小企业顺利渡过早期资金短缺阶段,还能促进科学实验技术的市场转化,同时资本的力量还能推动中国特色社会主义市场经济的不断完善。但是其投资决策仍没有形成一套科学高效的机制及方法。故本文以此作为出发点进行撰写。自从上世纪80年,我国开始出现风险投资,至今已有30余年。这期间风险投资在我国的发展突飞猛进。但因为风险投资是一项风险极大、投资阶段很多、投资领域很宽,投资决策很复杂的工作。故根据投资对象的发展阶段和所属领域,目前国内的风险投资基金划分为各种类别。经作者分析比较,在种子期和天使期的项目,创始人这个因素在整个投资决策中至关重要,是从古至今对“人”的评估都是一件难度极高的事情,因此很难进行量化考核与评估。为完成本研究,笔者在重庆易一天使投资有限公司工作一年,通过认真研究该公司的投资方法,并以国内外数十家知名风险投资机构的投资标准作为验证,以期构建完善的投资评估体系。经研究发现重庆易一天使投资有限公司的投资标准基本完善,可以作为风险投资的基本评估标准。重庆易一天使投资有限公司的这一套投资标准是从商业本质推导建立起来的,所以从表面上看六个标准中有五个标准是对“事”的评估,只有一个标准是评估“人”的。但是在笔者看来这些“事”都是基于“人”,故作者将重庆易一天使投资有限公司的投资标准总结为“人的内因”和“人的外因”这两个标准。但是通过研究可知,实际上可以完全满足所有标准的早期项目几乎没有,所有项目只能部分程度得达到部分标准。但经过实际检验,不能完全达到所有标准的项目也可以成功。所以研究的重点就是“达到标准什么程度的项目是可以投资的?”为了解决这一问题,首先需要将风险投资标准进行融合。经研究发现,在信息融合领域使用的主要数学工具或方法有贝叶斯方法、证据理论、模糊理论和神经网络等。本文通过分析对比发现在此问题上使用层次分析法和模糊理论较为合适。在风险投资领域,对人的评估很多时候是感性、模糊的。所以在对投资标准进行融合的时候使用的模糊数的方法对数据进行处理,使得数据处理更加接近真实情况,得出更精准的数据。因为本方法主要应用于天使投资领域的项目评估及投资决策,在业内一个天使项目如果可以进入到A轮,那说明该项目的天使投资基本上算是成功的。所以,笔者利用之前在创投圈的一些渠道对数十个已经获得A轮的项目及创始人进行评测,以实际案例作为本文依据。经分析,对数十个已经进入A轮的项目创始人评测得分均在一个合理区间内(7,8)。所以今后用同样的方法对天使期的项目进行评测,如果评测结果低于7,则不能通过投资决策。本文通过研究获得一套切实可行的投资系统,可以对天使期的创业项目针对创始人进行投资决策评估。此系统在整个风险投资基金中作为基础决策支持。主要是帮助基金中低层投资经理快速、精准判断项目。为基金的“投资决策会”提供决策依据。
[Abstract]:The risk investment in our social economic development plays an important role, not only can help SMEs smoothly through the early stage of shortage of funds, but also to promote the scientific experiment technology market transformation, at the same time, the power of capital can promote the China characteristics of the continuous improvement of socialist market economy. But the investment decision is still not formed a set of scientific and effective mechanism and method. This paper takes it as a starting point for writing. Since 80 years of the last century, our country began to venture capital, venture capital has been more than 30 years. The rapid development in China during this period. But because of the risk of investment is a risky investment stage, many investment field is very wide, the investment decision is very complex the work. So according to the development stage and belongs to the field of investment, the current domestic risk investment fund is divided into various categories. The author analysis Relatively, in seed and angel of the project, the founder of factors is extremely important in the investment decision-making, is the evaluation of the "people" since ancient times is a very difficult thing, so it is difficult to make quantitative assessment and evaluation. For the completion of this study, the author in Chongqing Yi an angel Investment Co. Ltd. a year through careful study, method of investment of the company, and dozens of well-known domestic and foreign venture capital investment as the standard verification, constructing perfect investment evaluation system in order. The study found that Chongqing Yi an angel investment limited investment standard is perfect, can be used as a basic evaluation criteria for this set of venture capital investment. Chongqing Yi an angel investment standard Investment Company Limited is established from the commercial nature of the derivation, so on the surface of six standard five of the standards for the evaluation of the "thing", only A standard is the evaluation of "people". But in my opinion these "things" are based on "people", so the author will Chongqing an angel investment limited investment criteria summed up as "the internal" and "external" two standards. But the study shows, in fact can fully meet early in the project all the standard almost no, only part of the project to all part of the standard. But after the actual test, can not fully meet all the criteria the project can be successful. So the focus of the study is to what extent the standard items can be invested? "In order to solve this problem, first of all need to be the fusion of venture investment. The study found that a Bayesian method in the main mathematical tools or methods used in the field of information fusion, evidence theory, fuzzy theory and neural network based. This issue of comparative analysis found on the use of AHP and fuzzy theory is more appropriate. In the field of risk assessment of investment, people are often emotional, fuzzy. So data in the method of fuzzy number using fusion when on the investment criteria for processing, the data processing is more close to the actual situation, it is more accurate the data. Because this method is mainly used in the field of angel investment project evaluation and investment decision in the industry, a project if the angel can enter into the A round, that the project is basically angel investment success. Therefore, the author uses some channels of venture capital circles before the logarithm ten have been obtained and the founder of the project A round of evaluation, based on the actual cases as the basis. Through the analysis, log ten has entered the A round of the project founder evaluation scores were at a reasonable interval (7,8). So in the future in the same way to the angel of the project evaluation, the evaluation results if less than 7, not by the investment decision. We obtain a set of feasible investment system through the research of angel of the business project for the founder of investment evaluation. This system as a basis for decision-making in the venture investment fund support mainly to help fund low level investment managers quickly, accurately determine the project. For the fund's investment decision will provide the basis for decision making.

【学位授予单位】：西南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.48

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