嘉兴市区商业地产价格预测研究

发布时间：2018-03-20 14:34

本文选题：商业地产价格　切入点：嘉兴市区　出处：《江西理工大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着上海、北京等一线城市的商业地产趋向饱和状态，，，三四线城市的商业地产市场逐渐受到投资者们的亲睐，而商业地产价格作为商业地产市场的“晴雨表”，其变化不仅直接关系着商业地产市场的发展健康与否，同时也跟消费者、投资者的利益休戚相关。本文以嘉兴市区商业地产价格为研究对象，研究其价格变化趋势以期获得有意义的结论。本文主要从以下几个方面展开了研究：首先，本文阐述了商业地产的定义、分类、特征以及相关基础理论，介绍了嘉兴市区的概况、商圈的分析、商业地产的现状，同时，着重分析了嘉兴市区商业地产市场发展面临的问题和具有的优势。其次，基于商业地产价值构成和价格确定，本文从宏观、中观以及微观三个层面定性分析了商业地产价格的影响因素，并且运用灰色综合关联度分析法定量分析了确立的10个嘉兴市区商业地产价格的可能影响因素，选取出其中综合关联度最大的3个影响因素：市区人均GDP、城市居民人均可支配收入以及城市居民人均消费性支出。本文进而对所选的三个主要影响因素分别建立灰色GM(1,1)预测模型，并结合商业地产价格的灰色GM(0,N)模型对未来几年嘉兴市区商业地产的价格进行了预测。预测结果显示未来几年嘉兴市区商业地产的价格将保持增长趋势。最后，通过上述研究，结合嘉兴市区的实际情况，为嘉兴市区商业地产投资者提供一些投资建议。
[Abstract]:As commercial real estate in Shanghai, Beijing and other first-tier cities tends to become saturated, the commercial real estate market in third-and fourth-tier cities is gradually becoming popular with investors. As a barometer of the commercial real estate market, the price of commercial real estate is not only directly related to the healthy development of the commercial real estate market, but also to consumers. The interests of investors are closely related. This paper takes the commercial real estate price in Jiaxing as the research object, studies its price change trend in order to get a meaningful conclusion. This paper mainly carries out the research from the following aspects:. First of all, this paper describes the definition, classification, characteristics and related basic theory of commercial real estate, introduces the general situation of Jiaxing urban area, the analysis of commercial district, the current situation of commercial real estate, at the same time, This paper analyzes the problems and advantages of commercial real estate market in Jiaxing. Secondly, based on the value composition and price determination of commercial real estate, this paper qualitatively analyzes the influencing factors of commercial real estate price from macro, meso and micro levels. And quantitative analysis of the 10 established commercial real estate prices in Jiaxing urban areas by using the grey comprehensive correlation analysis method may affect the price of commercial real estate. There are three factors that influence the degree of comprehensive correlation: urban per capita GDP, per capita disposable income of urban residents and per capita consumption expenditure of urban residents. In this paper, the grey GM1 / 1) prediction model is established for the three main influencing factors. The paper forecasts the price of commercial real estate in Jiaxing urban area in the next few years combined with the grey GM0 / N) model of commercial real estate price. The forecast results show that the price of commercial real estate in Jiaxing urban area will keep increasing trend in the next few years. Finally, through the above research, combined with the actual situation of Jiaxing urban area, provide some investment advice for commercial real estate investors in Jiaxing urban area.
【学位授予单位】：江西理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

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