高管增持、定向增发驱动型安全边际股选股方法应用型研究

发布时间：2018-03-28 15:40

本文选题：高管增持　切入点：定向增发　出处：《重庆大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：现阶段我国的股票投资者呈现普遍的非理性投资行为,造成大盘的起伏非常大,也不利于我国资本市场的健康发展,未来我国股市投资必将回归以价值为主导的投资方式,而投资者也需要对股票价值有一定的认识。价值投资的方式有多种多样,安全边际的投资理念便是价值投资的核心。安全边际的投资理念指导我们寻找“安全”的股票,即价值低估,风险相对较小的一类股票。笔者在实践中探索了一种寻找安全边际股票的有效方法——“高管增持、定向增发事件驱动型安全边际”的选股方法,该方法操作简单,切实可行,笔者通过对样本股票的跟踪,发现用此方法筛选出来的样本股票在跟踪期间的整体表现明显优于大盘,这也证明了该种方法的有效性。本文的主要内容安排如下:第一部分是绪论,阐述本文研究的背景、主要内容和意义、以及相关文献综述;第二部分是理论阐述,对已有的安全边际理论、股票内在价值理论、高管增持和定向增发行为的理论进行叙述;第三部分是探究整体上市公司股票的安全边际现状,这部分对主板、中小板块和创业板的股票进行分别研究,以探究不同板块的安全边际情况和安全边际股票的行业分布特征;第四部分对高管增持和定向增发安全边际股进行研究,分别筛选出高管增持安全边际样本股票和定向增发安全边际样本股票,并对样本股票进行一段时间的跟踪;第五部分是案例分析,本文选取了一只高管增持安全边际样本股和一只定向增发安全边际样本股进行具体的研究分析;第六部分是说明采用本文选股方法的一些注意事项;第七部分是结论,总结本文的主要研究成果及不足。本文主要的结论有五个:(1)创业板存在最普遍的高估值现象,主板股票的安全边际性更高;(2)高管增持和定向增发安全边际股票中,传统行业占了较大的比重,传统行业股票中拥有行业转型和行业利好的股票表现更为优异,撇开“公司转型和行业利好”因素,非传统行业股票表现更为优异;(3)高管增持、定向增发为驱动的安全边际股票的择股方法是有效的;(4)每股收益和净利润复合增长率权重的不同不能显著影响股价变化;(5)并不是安全边际系数越低股价表现越好。
[Abstract]:At the present stage, the stock investors in our country present common irrational investment behavior, which results in a very large fluctuation of the market, and is not conducive to the healthy development of the capital market of our country. In the future, the stock market investment in our country will return to the value-oriented investment mode. Investors also need to have a certain understanding of the value of stocks. There are a variety of ways to invest in value. The investment concept of the safety margin is the core of the value investment. The investment concept of the safety margin guides us to find the "safe" stock. In practice, the author explores an effective method to find the safe margin stock, that is, the stock selection method of "executive increasing stock, directed issuance event driven safety margin", this method is simple to operate. Through tracking the sample stock, the author finds that the overall performance of the sample stock selected by this method is obviously better than that of the large market during the tracking period. This also proves the validity of this method. The main contents of this paper are arranged as follows: the first part is the introduction, the background, the main content and the significance of this study, and the related literature review; the second part is the theoretical elaboration. The third part is to explore the safety margin of the overall listed companies, this part of the main board, this part of the main board, the third part is to explore the safety margin of the overall listed company, this part of the main board, In order to explore the safety marginal situation of different plates and the industry distribution characteristics of the safety marginal stocks, the fourth part is to study the safety margin stocks of senior executives and directionally issued additional security margin stocks, respectively, in order to explore the safety marginal situation and the industry distribution characteristics of the safety margin stocks of the small and medium-sized plates and the growth enterprise board respectively. Screening out the safety margin sample stocks and issuing additional safety marginal sample stocks respectively, and tracking the sample stock for a period of time; the fifth part is the case study. This article selects a senior executive to increase the safety margin sample stock and a directional additional safety margin sample stock to carry on the concrete research and analysis; the sixth part is to explain some matters needing attention in adopting the method of stock selection in this paper; the seventh part is the conclusion. The main conclusions of this paper are five: 1) the most common phenomenon of high valuation exists in the gem, and the safety margin of the main board stock is higher than that of the main board stock. Traditional industries account for a large proportion of the stocks in the traditional industries, and those stocks with industry transformation and positive industries perform even better in the traditional trades. Aside from the factors of "corporate transformation and good industry," the stocks in the non-traditional industries perform even better than others.) executives have increased their holdings. The effective stock selection method for the safety marginal stock driven by directional placement is that the difference in the weight of the compound growth rate of earnings per share and net profit cannot significantly affect the stock price change. (5) the lower the safety margin coefficient, the better the stock price performance.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F832.51

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