基于微分博弈的房屋定价模型构建

发布时间：2018-03-31 19:21

本文选题：房地产　切入点：定价模型　出处：《西北民族大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：伴随着房地产体制改革,房屋已不再仅仅作为居住使用,而变成了一种商品,成为一种投资手段。其中房价是调节房地产业利润和促进房地产经济迅速发展的有利杠杆。但是,房地产业的持续高速发展也带来了一系列的社会问题,过高的房价问题成为最主要的社会矛盾,它把房地产业从民生产业转变为谋求暴利的产业。房价的持续走高不仅影响健康的市场秩序,而且也会影响我国的可持续发展、社会稳定和国家经济安全。美国的金融危机也是由房产泡沫引起的,可见房地产业对整个国家的经济起着至关重要的作用。因此,确定正确的定价模型,对开发商在竞争中处于有力地位,进而促进我国房地产业的健康发展具有重要意义。目前比较常用的房屋定价模型多为静态的定价法,即短期内不改变房屋价格,可是这已经很难适应现今瞬息万变的房地产市场。本文引入房价的微分状态方程,同时考虑时间变量,通过确定政府与房地产商的决策变量及支付函数建立两者问的主从微分博弈模型。并且构造两者的HJB方程对模型求解。由政府的最优决策t及房地产商的最优决策q的值,进而确定房价的值p。并且通过数值仿真图像可以看出房价将成下降趋势,而政府的决策变量补偿支付(税收)及房地产商的的决策变量供房量将成上升趋势。
[Abstract]:With the reform of the real estate system, housing has become a commodity and a means of investment instead of being used as a residence. The housing price is a good lever to regulate the real estate profits and promote the rapid development of the real estate economy. The sustained and rapid development of the real estate industry has also brought about a series of social problems. The problem of excessive housing prices has become the most important social contradiction. It transforms the real estate industry from a livelihood industry to an industry seeking huge profits. The sustained rise in house prices not only affects the healthy market order, but also affects the sustainable development of our country. Social stability and national economic security. The financial crisis in the United States was also caused by the housing bubble, which shows that real estate plays a vital role in the economy of the country as a whole. It is of great significance for the developers to be in a strong position in the competition and then promote the healthy development of the real estate industry in our country. At present, most of the commonly used housing pricing models are static pricing methods, that is, the housing prices will not be changed in the short term. But this has been difficult to adapt to the current changing real estate market. In this paper, the differential state equation of house price is introduced, and the time variable is considered. By determining the decision variables and payment functions of the government and the real estate developer, the principal and subordinate differential game models are established, and the HJB equations of both are constructed to solve the model. The value of the government's optimal decision t and the optimal decision Q of the real estate developer are obtained from the value of the government's optimal decision t and the real estate developer's optimal decision Q. Then the value of house price is determined, and through the numerical simulation image, we can see that the price of house will become a downward trend, while the government's decision variable compensation payment (tax) and the decision variable of real estate developer will become the increasing trend of housing supply.
【学位授予单位】：西北民族大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F224

【相似文献】