利率市场化对我国商业银行风险的差异性影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-03 01:05

本文选题：利率市场化　切入点：商业银行风险　出处：《湘潭大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国的利率市场化改革进程随着近年来政府对金融机构贷款、存款利率管制的放开已基本完成,商业银行如何在我国的基本经济环境中借鉴国际经验,选择合理的策略应对利率市场化所带来的挑战,并及时把握住随之而来的机遇,使自身在改革中所受的风险冲击最小化是立足于市场的关键。同时由于我国商业银行在资产规模、股权结构、利润结构、经营模式及客户群体等方面都存在一定的差异性,那么利率市场化改革带来的一系列金融市场的波动可能对不同类型商业银行风险水平的影响各有不同。所以,各类商业银行应对利率市场化带来的种种问题时,如何找准自己的特色,以确保自身的发展健康平稳可持续是商业银行面临的主要难题。为了更好的理解利率市场化对我国不同类型商业银行风险之间的关系,以可贷资金理论、金融抑制与金融深化理论以及金融脆弱性理论为基础,通过对利率市场化与商业银行风险差异性影响机制的分析,为实证研究的进行提供了可行性。在实证研究部分,采用存贷利差与Z-Score分别作为利率市场化与商业银行风险的代理变量,选取我国45家商业银行2008-2015年的数据,将其分为国有银行、股份制商业银行以及城市商业银行三类,采用固定效应与随机效应相结合的方法对利率市场化与不同类型商业银行风险间的关系进行实证研究,得出以下结论:第一,利率市场化缓解了国有银行和股份制商业银行风险,但是加剧了城市商业银行的风险;第二,资产规模的上涨以及营业成本收入比的下降均会使国有银行的风险有所缓解:第三,贷存比以及贷款增长率的上升缓解了股份制商业银行的风险,但是加剧了城市商业银行的风险。并依据结论提出相关政策建议,在利率市场化改革进程中,首先我国政府应当保证基准利率的有效性,其次我国商业银行应当注重对利率定价机制的完善以及对风险管理能力的加强,并且在保证自身稳定性的情况下积极发展中间业务以实现利润来源的多样化,同时还应该对客户群体进行筛选和定位,从而促进其向特色化经营模式的转型。
[Abstract]:With the government lending to financial institutions in recent years, the liberalization of deposit interest rate control has been basically completed. How can commercial banks learn from international experience in our country's basic economic environment?It is the key to base on the market to choose a reasonable strategy to deal with the challenge of interest rate marketization and grasp the opportunity in time so as to minimize the risk impact in the reform.At the same time, commercial banks in China have some differences in asset size, equity structure, profit structure, business model and customer group, etc.A series of financial market fluctuations brought about by the interest rate marketization reform may have different effects on the risk level of different types of commercial banks.Therefore, when all kinds of commercial banks deal with all kinds of problems brought by the marketization of interest rate, how to find their own characteristics to ensure their own healthy and sustainable development is the main problem that commercial banks face.In order to better understand the relationship between interest rate marketization and the risks of different types of commercial banks in China, it is based on the theory of loanable funds, the theory of financial repression and financial deepening, and the theory of financial fragility.Through the analysis of the influence mechanism of interest rate marketization and commercial bank risk difference, this paper provides the feasibility for the empirical research.In the part of empirical research, using deposit and loan interest margin and Z-Score as agent variables of interest rate marketization and commercial bank risk, 45 commercial banks in China are selected from 2008 to 2015 to divide them into state-owned banks.Three types of joint-stock commercial banks and city commercial banks are used to study the relationship between interest rate marketization and the risk of different types of commercial banks by means of the combination of fixed effect and random effect. The conclusions are as follows: first,The marketization of interest rates alleviates the risks of state-owned banks and joint-stock commercial banks, but exacerbates the risks of urban commercial banks; second,The increase of asset size and the decrease of operating cost / income ratio will alleviate the risk of state-owned banks. Thirdly, the increase of loan-deposit ratio and loan growth rate will alleviate the risk of joint-stock commercial banks.But it exacerbates the risk of urban commercial banks.In the process of interest rate marketization reform, first of all, our government should ensure the effectiveness of the benchmark interest rate.Secondly, China's commercial banks should pay attention to the improvement of interest rate pricing mechanism and the strengthening of risk management ability, and actively develop intermediate business in order to realize the diversification of profit sources under the condition of ensuring their own stability.At the same time, we should also screen and position the customer groups to promote their transformation to the characteristic business model.
【学位授予单位】：湘潭大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.33;F832.5

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