上市公司治理风险识别与预警机制研究

发布时间：2018-04-04 01:03

本文选题：上市公司　切入点：治理风险　出处：《河南科技大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来，中外学者对公司治理风险的研究已经有了长足的发展，上市公司特别是国内上市公司，治理风险的水平呈现了明显的提高趋势。然而，上市公司爆发的一系列丑闻事件和治理问题的涌现，引发了人们对于上市公司治理机制和结构的质疑，关于研究上市公司风险治理问题也成为了国内外学者争相讨论的焦点。本文采用理论研究和实证研究相结合的方法，，通过对公司治理过程中出现的风险进行有效识别，建立风险预警模型来对公司治理过程中出现的风险进行有效预警和监控。本文在借鉴和分析国内外研究成果的基础上，对公司治理风险的概念及其相关理论进行了分析和界定，指出公司治理风险的出现是由于公司治理结构不合理或治理机制不完善等治理因素引发的公司从战略到一般管理不能正常运行的可能性。并总结分析出了公司治理风险识别的方法和内容。其中，公司治理风险识别方法包括：财务状况法、生产流程图法、环境分析法、德尔菲法以及暮景分析法。在对风险识别方法进行有效结合的基础上，有针对性对上市公司治理风险识别的内容进行了系统而又全面的分析。最后，在对治理风险进行有效的识别的基础上，选取风险预警模型的初始指标体系，并对每个指标进行回归分析，最终确定了风险预警模型的指标。风险预警模型的数据选取了2010年—2013年沪深两地的A股上市公司作为风险预警模型的数据样本。预警效果的检验选取了24家具有代表性的上市公司2012年的数据，通过检验得出预警效果良好。
[Abstract]:In recent years, Chinese and foreign scholars have made great progress in the study of corporate governance risk, and the level of governance risk of listed companies, especially domestic listed companies, has shown an obvious trend of improvement.However, the emergence of a series of scandals and governance problems of listed companies has caused people to question the governance mechanism and structure of listed companies.The research on risk management of listed companies has also become the focus of domestic and foreign scholars.This paper adopts the method of combining theoretical research and empirical research to effectively identify the risks in the process of corporate governance and establish a risk warning model to effectively forewarn and monitor the risks in the process of corporate governance.On the basis of reference and analysis of domestic and foreign research results, this paper analyzes and defines the concept and related theories of corporate governance risk.It is pointed out that the emergence of corporate governance risk is caused by the unreasonable corporate governance structure or the imperfect governance mechanism, which leads to the possibility that the company can not run normally from strategy to general management.And summarized and analyzed the corporate governance risk identification method and content.Among them, corporate governance risk identification methods include: financial position method, production flow chart method, environmental analysis method, Delphi method and Twilight analysis method.Based on the effective combination of risk identification methods, this paper makes a systematic and comprehensive analysis on the contents of risk identification of listed companies.Finally, based on the effective identification of the governance risk, the initial index system of the risk early warning model is selected, and the regression analysis of each index is carried out. Finally, the index of the risk early warning model is determined.The data of risk early warning model selected A share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2010 to 2013 as data samples of risk early warning model.Early warning effect test selected 24 representative listed companies in 2012 data, through the test that early warning effect is good.
【学位授予单位】：河南科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.51;F271

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