模糊规避条件下农户借贷需求决策研究

发布时间：2018-04-05 13:26

本文选题：农户　切入点：借贷需求　出处：《上海海洋大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：农村经济发展一直是中国经济面临的根本问题之一，而金融市场往往被认为对经济发展能起到重要支撑作用。但现有农村金融市场发展不完全、不成熟，难以满足农村经济发展需求。农业生产包括然灾害风险、市场风险、管理风险、技术风险等风险，具有高风险的显著特征，风险对农户的生产、消费、借贷、劳动供给等都有着显著影响作用，是影响农村金融市场培育和发展的关键因素之一。本文试图考察风险对农村金融市场供给和需求两方中需求一方作用机制进行系统研究，以期为后来学者从需求和供给两方面探讨风险对农村金融市场的的影响奠定基础，也为当前我国农村金融市场改革提供理论和实践分析。关于风险，以往文献往往重考察风险随机性特点，却忽视了风险的模糊性特点。但是，首先，理论文献论证了决策者决策不仅依赖于风险的随机性特征，并且依赖于风险的模糊性特征；其次，农户面临的风险往往具有模糊性特征，农户并不能完全了解甚至刻画所面临的不确定情况；再次，模糊规避偏好行为逻辑契合农户实际决策行为逻辑。模糊规避偏好行为逻辑为最大最小策略，假定决策者通过权衡未来平均状况和最差情况来做出生产、消费和借贷决策，相比于以往追求未来平均状况来进行生产、消费和借贷决策更贴合实际情况。因此，本文试图构建一个包含风险随机性和模糊性双重特点的模糊规避条件下农户借贷需求决策模型。通过理论分析及实证研究，本文考察农户借贷需求决策机制，并以此考察风险、农产品价格、利率、全要素生产率、资本产出弹性系数、风险规避程度、风险程度、模糊规避程度、初始财富禀赋、初始资本量、预期最差产出等对农户借贷需求的影响方向及影响机制。总结全文，可以得到以下六点主要研究结论。第一，上海农户抽样调查数据显示农户往往表现出模糊规避偏好和风险规避偏好，且模糊规避和风险规避偏好不存在显著相关关系。第二，模糊规避程度越大，农户借贷需求对利率弹性绝对值越大。第三，文章通过构建农户模型系统阐述农户借贷需求决定机制，具体而言，农户在消费边际替代率等于消费价格比率确定最优消费量，，在资本边际期望收益等于借贷边际成本处确定最优生产投资量，农户在确定最优消费量和最优生产投资量基础上最终确定最优借贷量；第四，基于农户借贷需求决策机制，文章从理论方面考察了各因素对农户借贷需求影响方向及影响机制，其中影响因素包括农产品价格、市场利率、全要素生产率、资本产出弹性系数、风险规避程度、风险程度、模糊规避程度、初始财富禀赋、初始资本量、预期最差产出等。第五，利用上海农户调查数据，文章对农户借贷需求决策影响因素进行了实证数据验证，结果显示利率、全要素生产率、模糊规避偏好、最差预期产出和生命周期变量对农户借贷需求有显著影响作用，其中利率对农户借贷需求弹性最大，暗示对农户借贷需求影响较大，农村金融市场参与者及政策制定者可利用利率这一工具进行应对市场波动和宏观调控。第六，利率对农户借贷需求有两重影响。其一，利率影响农户是否借贷；另一方面，利率对农户借贷需求量影响并不显著。上述结论具有理论和实践两方面意义。从理论方面来说，文章探讨了风险对农户借贷市场供需双方中需求一方的影响机制，为后来学者从需求和供给两方面考察风险对农村金融市场提供了理论基础，丰富了风险影响农村金融市场作用机制的文献。从实践方面来说，有助于我们考察由于宏观”金融危机”等经济形势变化导致市场预期不明朗对农村金融市场、农村经济的传导机制，为应对经济风险对农户生产消费决策提供相应前提和基础。
[Abstract]:Rural economic development has been one of the fundamental problems faced by China ' s economy , and financial market is often considered to play an important role in economic development . However , the existing rural financial market is not completely and immature , it is difficult to meet the needs of rural economic development . It is a key factor that affects the cultivation and development of rural financial markets .

As to the risk , the past literature often focuses on the stochastic characteristics of risk , but neglects the fuzzy characteristic of risk . However , firstly , the theoretical literature demonstrates that decision - maker ' s decision - making depends not only on the randomness of the risk , but also on the fuzzy characteristic of risk .
Secondly , the risk of farmers often has vague characteristics , and farmers can ' t fully understand and even depict the uncertain situation .
Thirdly , fuzzy evasion preference behavior logic is the logic of farmer ' s actual decision - making behavior . Fuzzy avoidance preference behavior logic is the largest minimum strategy , and it is assumed that decision - makers can make production , consumption and lending decisions by weighing the future average condition and the worst case . Therefore , this paper tries to construct a decision - making model of farmer ' s credit demand under fuzzy avoidance conditions including risk randomness and ambiguity .

Through theoretical analysis and empirical research , this paper investigates the mechanism of farmer ' s loan demand decision - making , and then examines the impact direction and influence mechanism of the risk , agricultural product price , interest rate , total factor productivity , capital output elastic coefficient , risk aversion degree , risk degree , fuzzy evasion degree , initial wealth endowment , initial capital quantity , expected worst output , etc .
Fourth , on the basis of the decision - making mechanism of farmer ' s credit demand , the paper studies the influence direction and the influence mechanism of the factors on the demand of farmer ' s loan from the theory aspect , including the price of agricultural products , market interest rate , total factor productivity , capital output elasticity coefficient , risk aversion degree , risk degree , fuzzy evasion degree , initial wealth endowment , initial capital quantity and expected worst output .
On the other hand , the effect of interest rate on farmers ' borrowing demand is not significant .

In terms of theory , this paper probes into the influence mechanism of the risk on the demand side of farmers ' loan market supply and demand , and provides a theoretical basis for later scholars to study the risk to the rural financial market from the aspects of demand and supply .

【学位授予单位】：上海海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F323.6;F832.43

【参考文献】