分析师荐股、会计稳健性与市场反应

发布时间：2018-04-05 14:11

本文选题：会计稳健性　切入点：分析师荐股　出处：《浙江财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：对于目前证券市场上信息中介传递偏差和投机氛围浓厚的现状，证券分析师在其中扮演了怎样的角色受到越来越多的关注。作为资本市场中独特的信息中介，证券分析师是发挥其应有的治理作用，还是起到了相反的作用？而作为股票定价最重要因素的会计信息，其产生与报告无疑会对股票定价产生重要的影响。那么，作为衡量会计信息质量重要原则的稳健性原则，是否可以提高资本市场的有效性？能否起到稳定投资者情绪，减轻市场波动的作用？要回答这些疑问，需要进行深入的理论分析和实证研究。论文结合会计稳健性和证券分析师荐股效应对股价的影响进行理论和实证研究，探索会计稳健性政策对分析师荐股效应带来的股价异常波动的影响，在理论上通过计量观和信息观论证会计稳健性对股票定价的决定性影响，从投资者保护主义的角度说明稳健的会计政策能抑制分析师荐股导致的异常市场反应，并得到实证结果的支持。全文由研究背景与理论基础、理论分析和实证分析以及结论与建议三部分组成。第一部分阐述了研究意义、背景、方法和思路，综述了国内外会计稳健性和证券分析师荐股方面的研究。第二部分是论文主体部分。界定了证券分析师的概念与会计稳健性的内涵，解剖分析师发布荐股信息时面临的各种利益冲突局面。现实中投资者受羊群效应的作用，往往会跟随分析师发布的乐观建议出现“追高不追低”的投资怪相，因此分析师荐股会导致更高的换手率和更强烈的市场反应。通过分析会计稳健性能够限制管理者的私立行为，减轻信息不对称程度，使股价更能反应出企业的实际状况。投资者对采用相对稳健会计政策的上市公司会有更真实的解读，其投资行为也会更加理性，因此会计稳健性政策虽不能完全消除分析师荐股带来的强烈反应，但能起到一定的调节作用。相比激进会计政策当上市公司运用相对稳健的会计政策时意味着将来能给企业带来更多的成长空间，并且能降低预期盈余的差异给市场带来的负面影响，能够进一步抑制分析师关注未预期盈余导致地强烈市场反应。本文的实证研究通过事件研究法，论证了会计稳健性政策对分析师荐股效应的影响。文章的最后，提出了有关建议：第一，，对证券分析师进行适当监督，辅以适当的民事赔偿责任以实现市场的公平并增强投资者的信心；第二，培育中小投资者的素质；第三，改善证券市场结构，改变中小投资者狭隘的投资者意识；第四，加强会计稳健性政策运用的监管，完善资本市场运作，提高会计准则的实施质量，确保在上市公司会计实务处理中切实贯彻会计稳健性的原则，以提高上市公司的会计信息质量，减轻信息不对称性程度，保护投资者的利益。本文试图在以下方面进行创新：第一，跨学科领域，多角度研究。通过将行为金融学与会计稳健性两者相结合，为会计政策对市场投机行为的影响研究提供了新的启示。第二，从投资者保护主义的角度研究会计稳健性的经济后果，丰富了现有研究。本文提供了资产定价机制受会计稳健性政策影响的经验数据，从信息观和计量观两个角度论证了会计稳健性对股价的决定性作用，并通过实证证明了两者的关系。第三，将会计稳健性政策的影响引入证券分析师荐股效应的研究中，采用了[-3，10]的窗口期。通过本文的研究证明了会计稳健性政策能够有效抑制证券分析师荐股效应导致的强烈市场反应。
[Abstract]:For the current information on the securities market intermediary transfer bias and speculative situation, securities analysts play what kind of role has attracted more and more attention. As the unique information intermediaries in the capital market, securities analysts should play its role in governance, and played the opposite role as the most important stock pricing? The factors of accounting information, and the report will undoubtedly have an important impact on the stock price. So, as an important measure of the conservatism principle the principle of the quality of accounting information, whether it can improve the effectiveness of the capital market? Can stabilize investor sentiment, reduce the volatility of the market? To answer these questions, the need for theoretical analysis and in-depth empirical research.
The effects of the combination of accounting conservatism and securities analysts recommendation effect of stock price theory and empirical research, to explore the influence of abnormal fluctuation of accounting conservatism policy brings to the effect of stock analysts, in theory, through the measurement of accounting conservatism view and information view demonstrates a decisive impact on the stock pricing, market reaction shows that abnormal sound accounting policies can inhibit analysts from the perspective of investors lead to protectionism, and empirical results support.
The full text of the research background and theoretical basis, theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, conclusions and suggestions of three parts. The first part describes the research background, significance, methods and ideas, research at home and abroad, accounting conservatism and securities analysts of the review. The second part is the main part of this paper. The definition and connotation of accounting conservatism of securities analysts the various interests conflict information when faced with anatomical analysts released. In reality, investors are subject to the effect of herding, optimistic recommendations often follow analyst released "don't chase, chasing the high low" investment analysts therefore grimace, will lead to a higher turnover rate and market reaction more intense. Through the analysis of accounting conservatism can limit managers' private behavior, reduce the degree of information asymmetry, the stock price can reflect the actual condition of enterprise investment. On the relatively safe accounting policy of listed companies will have a more realistic interpretation, its investment behavior will be more rational, so the accounting conservatism policy has not completely eliminate the backlash brought by analysts, but can play an important role. Compared with aggressive accounting policy when the listed companies use relatively robust accounting policy means the future can bring more space to grow up, and can reduce the negative impact of differences in expected earnings brought to the market, to further suppress the unexpected earnings lead analysts focused on strong market reaction. The empirical study using the method of event study demonstrates the influence of accounting conservatism on policy analysts' recommendation effect. At the end of this article, the author puts forward some suggestions: first, proper supervision of the securities analyst, supplemented by appropriate civil liability in order to realize the market Fair and enhance the confidence of investors; second, cultivate the quality of investors; third, improve the structure of the stock market, small investors change narrow investor awareness; fourth, strengthen the supervision of accounting conservatism by policy, improve the capital market operation, improve the quality of accounting standards, ensure the effective implementation of Accounting Conservatism in Listed Companies in the accounting practice the principle, in order to improve the quality of accounting information of listed companies, reduce the degree of information asymmetry, to protect the interests of investors.
This article tries to make innovations in the following aspects:
First, interdisciplinary and multi angle research. By combining behavioral finance and accounting conservatism, it provides a new inspiration for the study of the impact of accounting policy on market speculation.
Second, from the protection of investors accounting conservatism in perspective of economic consequences, enriches the existing research. This paper provides empirical data of asset pricing mechanism under the influence of accounting conservatism policy, from the information perspective and measurement view two angles to demonstrate the decisive role of accounting conservatism on the stock price, and the relationship between the two is proved by empirical research.
Third, the research will affect the accounting conservatism policy introduced the securities analysts recommendation effect, using the [-3,10] window period. Through this study proved that the strong market reaction of accounting conservatism policy can effectively restrain the effect of the securities analysts recommendation result.

【学位授予单位】：浙江财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.51;F275

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