郑州市房地产价格变化影响因素的实证分析

发布时间：2018-04-09 23:42

本文选题：郑州市房地产价格　切入点：影响因素　出处：《郑州大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：自1998年我国废除福利分房以来,二十多年过去了,房地产业已经发展成了国民经济的支柱产业之一,商品房的买卖成了消费增长的新源泉和新热点。但是近些年,房地产价格增速过快,尤其是郑州市的房地产价格的增速远远超过了人均可支配收入的涨幅。这一情况的日益凸显,即制约了郑州市经济健康稳定的发展,也影响了郑州市居民的生活质量,特别是中低收入人群的生活质量,所以房地产价格问题不单单是一个经济问题,同时也是重要的社会问题。本文用理论分析与实证研究相结合的方法,对影响郑州市房地产价格的诸多因素近行了分析。首先,从成本、经济、社会、政策等诸多因素入手,对影响郑州市房地产价格的这些因素进行了理论分析。然后,分析了五个经济因素对郑州市房地产价格的影响,其中运用了多元线性回归的方法,分析结果表明影响郑州市房地产价格变动的五个因素中,GDP和贷款利率对郑州市房地产价格的影响较为显著。第三,用因子分析和多元线性回归的方法,比较经济因素和政策因素对于郑州市房地产价格的影响程度,得出了经济因素比政策因素更能影响郑州市房地产价格,相比较而言,政策因素对郑州市房价的影响主要体现在某些时间段的,但是从长期来看,经济因素的持久性和延续性会更强一些。最后,根据实证分析的结论预测了郑州市房地产市场仍将会继续上涨,但是增速会减慢,而且会更加规范。针对稳定郑州房地产市场提出了几条建议,分别是：增加土地供给,特别是经济实用房的土地供给；不要片面依赖利率政策,多采用税收调节等手段；进一步落实经济适用房政策；进一步完善廉租房政策,发展房屋租赁市场；规范房地产市场,引导消费者理性预期。
[Abstract]:Since the abolition of welfare housing in China in 1998, more than 20 years have passed, the real estate industry has developed into one of the pillar industries of the national economy, and the purchase and sale of commercial housing has become a new source and new hot spot of consumption growth.But in recent years, real estate prices have grown too fast, especially in Zhengzhou, far outpacing per capita disposable income.This situation is becoming increasingly prominent, that is, it restricts the healthy and stable development of the economy in Zhengzhou, and also affects the quality of life of the residents of Zhengzhou, especially the quality of life of the middle and low income groups. Therefore, the issue of real estate prices is not just an economic issue.It is also an important social problem.By combining theoretical analysis with empirical research, this paper analyzes several factors affecting real estate prices in Zhengzhou.First of all, from the cost, economic, social, policy and many other factors, real estate prices in Zhengzhou to carry out a theoretical analysis of these factors.Then, the paper analyzes the influence of five economic factors on the real estate price of Zhengzhou, and applies the method of multiple linear regression.The results show that among the five factors that affect the real estate price in Zhengzhou, GDP and loan interest rate have a significant impact on the real estate price in Zhengzhou.Thirdly, by means of factor analysis and multivariate linear regression, the paper compares the influence of economic factors and policy factors on real estate prices in Zhengzhou, and concludes that economic factors can affect Zhengzhou real estate prices more than policy factors.The impact of policy factors on housing prices in Zhengzhou is mainly reflected in certain time periods, but in the long run, the persistence and continuity of economic factors will be stronger.Finally, according to the conclusion of empirical analysis, it predicts that the real estate market in Zhengzhou will continue to rise, but the growth rate will slow down, and will be more standardized.This paper puts forward several suggestions for stabilizing Zhengzhou real estate market, such as increasing land supply, especially land supply of economical and practical housing, not relying on interest rate policy one-sidedly, adopting tax regulation and so on.Further implement comfortable housing's policy; further improve the low-rent housing policy and develop the housing rental market; standardize the real estate market and guide consumers' rational expectations.
【学位授予单位】：郑州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

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